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Cashman: Yankees won’t pursue Pujols
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forsberg_us wrote:
Cashman: Yankees won’t pursue Pujols
Cubs will, though.
I repost this:
Max wrote:
I hate to say this, but a smart move--though horribly unsentimental--would be to let Pujols walk, move one of Craig/Berkman/Holliday to 1B, and sign Reyes for SS. Then just think about 2B and LHP. If Furcal can play 2B anything like he can play SS, maybe sign him, and then Punto to back them both up.
Reyes [S]
Furcal [S]
Berkman [S]
Holliday [R]
Craig [R]
Freese [R]
Molina [R]
Jay [L]
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"Cubs will, though."
I'm sure they will. But as I've said before, why would he go there?
Pujols has said many times that it's about winning. The Cubs are stuck with Zamboner, Soriano and Fukudome. Ramirez re-uped for a year and I think Dempster has another year. They aren't winning in the near future, if ever.
If Pujols signs with the Cubs, it will be purely about money. He's absolutely entitled to do that, so please don't think I'm suggesting otherwise. But if he decides to sign on to wear blue pajamas, he better not show up on TV saying that he did it because he felt they were closer to being a winning club, because if he does that, his credibility goes out the window.
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Keeping with my thoughts that a creative solution that works for both sides would be the best approach, anyone know if the rule prohibit some sort of benevolent gesture by the team?
What if the Cardinals offered to build some sort of clinic in the DR through a series of donations to Pujols' foundation? Pujols does a ton of work in the DR, and he might respond favorably to something like that. The Cardinals should get a tax deduction for the donation which provides them with tax relief. It seems almost too simple, so I have to assume it's against the rules, but does anyone know for sure?
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Fors, I believe Fukudome is a free agent and I have not heard anything about ARam signing a one year contract. Some rumors are that David Ortiz might sign with the Cubs. With Jim Thome in Philly hitting the ball to the right side of the infield might not be a bad idea.
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Ramirez had an option that the Cubs exercised, but apparently it was mutual because I just read that he declined. You are correct, Fukudome is a free agent. I thought he signed a 5 year deal, it was only 4.
Looking at who the Cubs have under contract seems to make it even less likely Pujols signs. Here's what they've got coming back:
C- Soto
1B-
2B- Barney
SS- Castro
3B-
OF- Soriano
OF- Byrd
OF- Colvin
Pujols walks 150 times in that lineup. Yuck.
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I'm not saying it's likely that Pujols will sign with the Cubs, or that the Cubs will be good anytime soon, but they should have mountains of money to rebuild.
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forsberg_us wrote:
Keeping with my thoughts that a creative solution that works for both sides would be the best approach, anyone know if the rule prohibit some sort of benevolent gesture by the team?
What if the Cardinals offered to build some sort of clinic in the DR through a series of donations to Pujols' foundation? Pujols does a ton of work in the DR, and he might respond favorably to something like that. The Cardinals should get a tax deduction for the donation which provides them with tax relief. It seems almost too simple, so I have to assume it's against the rules, but does anyone know for sure?
I doubt this is the plan, because simply pay Pujols $30 million per year and he can build all the clinics he wants.
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Max wrote:
forsberg_us wrote:
Keeping with my thoughts that a creative solution that works for both sides would be the best approach, anyone know if the rule prohibit some sort of benevolent gesture by the team?
What if the Cardinals offered to build some sort of clinic in the DR through a series of donations to Pujols' foundation? Pujols does a ton of work in the DR, and he might respond favorably to something like that. The Cardinals should get a tax deduction for the donation which provides them with tax relief. It seems almost too simple, so I have to assume it's against the rules, but does anyone know for sure?I doubt this is the plan, because simply pay Pujols $30 million per year and he can build all the clinics he wants.
In case you haven't figured it out yet, the Cardinals aren't going to pay Pujols $30M/yr. I'm not sure anyone will, but I'm confident it won't be St. Louis.
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forsberg_us wrote:
Keeping with my thoughts that a creative solution that works for both sides would be the best approach, anyone know if the rule prohibit some sort of benevolent gesture by the team?
What if the Cardinals offered to build some sort of clinic in the DR through a series of donations to Pujols' foundation? Pujols does a ton of work in the DR, and he might respond favorably to something like that. The Cardinals should get a tax deduction for the donation which provides them with tax relief. It seems almost too simple, so I have to assume it's against the rules, but does anyone know for sure?
Hasn't Luhnow been down there for a couple of years, working on fertility experiments?
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forsberg_us wrote:
Max wrote:
forsberg_us wrote:
Keeping with my thoughts that a creative solution that works for both sides would be the best approach, anyone know if the rule prohibit some sort of benevolent gesture by the team?
What if the Cardinals offered to build some sort of clinic in the DR through a series of donations to Pujols' foundation? Pujols does a ton of work in the DR, and he might respond favorably to something like that. The Cardinals should get a tax deduction for the donation which provides them with tax relief. It seems almost too simple, so I have to assume it's against the rules, but does anyone know for sure?I doubt this is the plan, because simply pay Pujols $30 million per year and he can build all the clinics he wants.
In case you haven't figured it out yet, the Cardinals aren't going to pay Pujols $30M/yr. I'm not sure anyone will, but I'm confident it won't be St. Louis.
Agreed. But why would he sign for 7 years at 22.5, PLUS a million dollar clinic, when someone else will give him 10 years 25 million???
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You seriously believe someone will give him 10 years?
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It's hardly the point. The point is whether building a clinic in DR will get the job done, instead of the paying extra millions to bump up to market rate. My hunch is that the difference between what the Cards want to offer, and market rate is very large . . . several tens of millions of dollars.
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Max wrote:
Agreed. But why would he sign for 7 years at 22.5, PLUS a million dollar clinic, when someone else will give him 10 years 25 million???
There is alot of things tieing him to St. Louis. One is a gaint statue of himself he put in front of his restaurant. True people will still go there and eat if he sign with the Cubs or some other team but it is hard not to believe he will stay. I believe he also said that the Pujols Foundation will still be St. Louis based even if he goes someplace else. I think he has a clinic for down syndrome people in St. Louis. Then there is his family. He is a big family guy with four children. One thing I still find remarkable is that the child that has down syndrome isnt even his. Yet he has done all of this in the name of her condition. Ill go out on a limb and say that his family isnt moving.
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AP, I share your optimism, but will steel my heart against the breaking that will occur should he leave. Mostly because I know what free agency does. Someone is going to flash AP an offer that the Cardinals will be relunctant to match.
The Cubs? Maybe. Why would he go there?
1) It's not a major relocation.
2) He'll get a chance to stick it to the team that wouldn't pay him what he was worth.
3) He'll have a GM who's not afraid to really work with a team and find out what works (Epstein's tenure in Boston cannot be called anything but a massive success).
4) Larussa isn't here to make him want to stay.
5) There's no indication Oquendo will be the new Manager.
6) There's no indication Francona will be the new Manager.
7) Outside of Molina, there's not much on the team that would keep him on the team.
8) You just gave Holliday 17 million a season to protect the man, but now you won't pay the man.
9) You just played 162 games where a career ender was a money ender, risking everything to get through your contract and get a new one. That tends to really piss off athletes.
Some of those spell disaster for your bargaining position as an ownership.
For the Cubs? While we throw around "they won't win!", I now have no reason as to "why not?" unless I'm believing in Curses. If Epstein gets Francona back in there, and a few years to move players in/out to take advantage of a cash source nearly as large as Bostons, I see no reason to believe they won't win. ESPECIALLY if they get Pujols.
Still it's a "wait and see" and I'm hopeful he'll stay.
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I think I am on record as saying I came around and figured Albert would be back. That take hasn't changed. i was just saying that I don't think tossing a bone or two in the DR would be decisive--if indeed that's what Fors meant--because the amount of money he will walk away from be signing with the Cards, instead of with a truly open market, is going to be 8 figures.
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"For the Cubs? While we throw around "they won't win!", I now have no reason as to "why not?" unless I'm believing in Curses. If Epstein gets Francona back in there, and a few years to move players in/out to take advantage of a cash source nearly as large as Bostons, I see no reason to believe they won't win. ESPECIALLY if they get Pujols."
The "why nots" are that their starting pitching sucks, their lineup is awful and their closer is still Carlos Marmol. Other than that, they're a perfect team.
And I don't say this to start an argument, really I don't, but it makes no sense for Pujols to go to a team that might be good in a "few years." His window is now and it's starting to close. I know you believe that Pujols will continue to produce Pujols numbers into his 40s, but common sense suggests that's unlikely. In a "few years" Pujols is highly unlikely to be producing Pujols numbers and will just be an above-average player, except that he'll be making more than $25M.
That's why I still think his return to the Cardinals makes the most sense. If, at age 37, Pujols is a .280/25/80 hitter, no one in St. Louis is going to care that he's being paid $20+M. We'll all look back at this last contract, and say things are evening out and happily watch him pass a bunch of Cardinal milestones. But if he's putting up those numbers some place else and being paid $25+M, the fans aren't going to care what he did in St. Louis, and their going to let him hear it. And the occasional attendance bump that the ownership might get when he passes 3,000 hits or 500/600 HRs isn't going to be enough to make the contract worthwhile.
If the Cubs were closer, I'd be a little more concerned. If Pujols can go to Chicago and bring that franchise a World Series, he'd be an icon regardless of what he does in his later years. But it just seems that franchise is too far away right now, and I'm not sure I see him going to a 3-4 year rebuilding process.
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Max wrote:
I think I am on record as saying I came around and figured Albert would be back. That take hasn't changed. i was just saying that I don't think tossing a bone or two in the DR would be decisive--if indeed that's what Fors meant--because the amount of money he will walk away from be signing with the Cards, instead of with a truly open market, is going to be 8 figures.
If Pujols re-signs with the Cardinals, there's no doubt in my mind he will have walked away from $10M+.
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forsberg_us wrote:
And the occasional attendance bump that the ownership might get when he passes 3,000 hits or 500/600 HRs isn't going to be enough to make the contract worthwhile.
Just for fun:
AGE YEAR HR/HITS
(32) 2012: 485/2261
(33) 2013: 525/2449
(34) 2014: 565/2637
(35) 2015: 605/2825
(36) 2016: 645/3013
(Assumptions: Pujols can continue at his career average until 36 years old, which is not that uncommon for HoF-ers)
forsberg_us wrote:
If the Cubs were closer, I'd be a little more concerned. If Pujols can go to Chicago and bring that franchise a World Series, he'd be an icon regardless of what he does in his later years. But it just seems that franchise is too far away right now, and I'm not sure I see him going to a 3-4 year rebuilding process.
FWIW, I think the Cubs have the money to buy a competitive team next year if they choose to do so. Guys like Pujols and to a lesser extent Francona, might insist on it as a precondition to signing.
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forsberg_us wrote:
Max wrote:
I think I am on record as saying I came around and figured Albert would be back. That take hasn't changed. i was just saying that I don't think tossing a bone or two in the DR would be decisive--if indeed that's what Fors meant--because the amount of money he will walk away from be signing with the Cards, instead of with a truly open market, is going to be 8 figures.
If Pujols re-signs with the Cardinals, there's no doubt in my mind he will have walked away from $10M+.
$10-99 million is a pretty big range, and I think the worst case scenario / super cynical estimates are that it will be close to nine figures--and if this had been done 2 years ago, it might well have approached that difference. My guess is that it might wind up being close to $50 million. But hearing the Yankees are out of it makes me a bit concerned about collusion among the owners to keep this contract small. In which case, the Cards might wind up being the only bidder, as I think they were with Holliday.
Last edited by Max (11/08/2011 12:10 pm)
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forsberg_us wrote:
The "why nots" are that their starting pitching sucks, their lineup is awful and their closer is still Carlos Marmol. Other than that, they're a perfect team.
I understand your sentiment, but my logic on this is simple.
Albert's flowchart (opinion)
Can I get a fair and solid career deal from St. Louis?
(Yes)
Sign with St. Louis
(No)
Can I get the deal I want with any other team?
(Yes)
Sign the deal
(No)
Can I stick it to the Cardinals for making me go through this shit after 11 seasons of excellent and underpaid service?
(Yes)
Sign with the Cubs, try to be a part of another World Series, while sticking it to St. Louis. Join the Hall of Fame as a Cub.
So unless he's going to get the 25+ million dollar deal over 8+ seasons, which nobody thinks he'll get, I can EASILY see him signing with the Cubs.
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"Just for fun:
AGE YEAR HR/HITS
(32) 2012: 485/2261
(33) 2013: 525/2449
(34) 2014: 565/2637
(35) 2015: 605/2825
(36) 2016: 645/3013
(Assumptions: Pujols can continue at his career average until 36 years old, which is not that uncommon for HoF-ers)"
Max,
You cut off my qualifier that it didn't make sense for Pujols to sign with a team that won't be good for a "few years." It's a pretty important qualifier.
If their teams don't win, any attendance bump that a team like Washington or Florida may experience from signing Pujols will start to wane after a couple of seasons. If Pujols' own production starts to wane in the second half of the contract, his ability to influence attendance will similarly decrease. In that scenario, the only attendance bump Pujols could bring would be when he passes certain milestones. No question fans will come to see him hit 500/600 HR or 3,000 hits. But milestones like that only affect attendance for a few games. Once the milestone is passed, attendance will revert back to the norm.
The current MLB average fan cost index is just under $50/person. Assuming Pujols signs a $250M contract, the new team has to sell 5,000,000 tickets directly attributable to Pujols to break even on the contract. That's impossible for the Cubs because they nealry sell out every game already. It's possible for teams like Florida and Washington, but it assumes they actually start to win.
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I could see the Carinals losing 5,000,000 tickets over te corse of the contract by not resigning Pujols. If they lost 1/2 million ticket sales over the corse of an 8 year contract that would be 4 million tickets. Still if the Cardinals keep winning people will keep coming no matter who is standing at first. I am sure that is how th front office is looking at it. No matter what they have to be productive, even if Pujols stays.
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forsberg_us wrote:
You cut off my qualifier that it didn't make sense for Pujols to sign with a team that won't be good for a "few years." It's a pretty important qualifier.
Sorry. But when I wrote, "just for fun" I meant it. You brought it up, and I thought I'd calculate when we might see those milestones reached. No hidden agenda.
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"FWIW, I think the Cubs have the money to buy a competitive team next year if they choose to do so. "
Maybe, but have you looked at the list of available free agents? It's not a great list, expecially considering their needs.