1 of 1- artie_fufkin
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- From: God's Little Acre
- Registered: 9/08/2010
- Posts: 22,429
The good & the bad
We're almost at the quarter-pole, and I think nearly everyone is satisfied with the Cardinals' start so far.
The Good:
- 23-13, best record in the National League, and 1/2-game behind the Rangers for the BRIB, despite playing 21 of 36 games on the road.
- 3.03 overall ERA is the best in baseball, by far, and the ERA in innings 1-6 - when the starters are normally in the game - is an off-the-charts 2.46.
- Plus-42 run differential is the best in the NL, and the second best behind the Tigers (plus-53).
- 14-7 road record is the best in baseball. And they've already had their trips to San Francisco and Washington, winners of their respective divisions last year. Using records as of today, the only non-divisional opponents with winning reords they play on the road the rest of the way are Atlanta and Colorado.
- RISP average is an obscene .336, nine points better than anyone else in baseball, and 68 points better than the second best team in the NL (Giants).
The Bad:
- Bullpen, obviously. Mujica has settled the back end, but their ERA in the last three innings is 4.19 - the third-worst in the league.
- 29 home runs is 13th in the league, ahead of only the Dodgers and the Marlins.
- Westbrook's injury. He will eventually revert to the mean, but right now his 1.62 ERA is tied for fourth in the NL; fifth in the league.
- 35 GIDP, third worst in the league.
- 11 stolen bases, tied with Seattle for worst in the majors.
Things that concern me:
- Reversion to the mean for starters' ERA and RISP
- Molina getting hurt/wearing down
- David Freese's sudden transformation to Scott Cooper
- TTTIB
- The schedule from July 23 to Aug. 28 has 37 games in 37 days, with seven games against the Braves, six against TTTIB, a 5-games-in-4-days set in Pittsburgh that could shred the pitching staff and four games against the Dodgers, who might actually wake up and figure out they're good by then.
Last edited by artie_fufkin (5/13/2013 2:18 pm)
- Max
- Colby Rasmus
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- From: Pacific Northwest
- Registered: 9/07/2010
- Posts: 5,269
Re: The good & the bad
That's a great summary and analysis, Artie.
As I was reading it, I was thinking that the starting pitching ERA and RISP will revert to the mean. Also, the "bad" things often indicate a fundamental problem, not a statistical blip. Thus, I don't necessarily think that our poor performance for HR, GIDP, and SB will suddenly improve with a reversion to the mean. Likely, they just mean the team lacks power and speed.
- tkihshbt
- Scott Rolen
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- Registered: 9/07/2010
- Posts: 7,244
Re: The good & the bad
Good job, Artie.
Max, I think you're right that they lack power and speed. I think last year was an anamoly in the power department. I don't think Molina and Freese are 20-HR guys, and I wouldn't be surprised if Craig is more of a 15-HR guy as well.
Its going to be a lineup dependent on hitting lots of singles, and since they are slow as molasses, will have quite a few games like Friday and Saturday. None of the guys who pitched for the Rockies this weekend are particularly good, yet they still limited the Cardinals to eight runs.
This is becoming stream-of-consciousness...but I'm pretty nervous about Craig and Freese. I was a huge Craig honk as he came up through the system, but right now he's not far from Juan Encarnacion.
- Max
- Colby Rasmus
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- From: Pacific Northwest
- Registered: 9/07/2010
- Posts: 5,269
Re: The good & the bad
Yadi leads the team in SB with 3. OK, shared with ShaRo.
Next is Descalso with 2.