I'm almost as excited by the prospect of Mexico not making it as the US getting in, after that pre-game interview with Guardado whining about how much better they are than the Americans. 

alz wrote:

The curse of DVR.... I came to it well after kickoff and started from the first second. I could barely understand the Mexican announcer at times...

Am I wrong, or is the USA lined up to come in as the #1 CONCACAF seed? Does that help us draw an easier group stage, or no?

In essence, you're correct, but where they finish in the hex doesn't really matter. The draw is all about world rankings. The U.S. is currently ranked 19th. If they win their last two, they'll most likely end up in Pot 2, and get picked for a group with at least one European team and at least one South American team. A good group for them would be, say, Colombia, Denmark and Iran. If they lose either of their last two and end up in Pot 3, they're inviting a Group of Death scenario. They could end up with Brazil, England and Nigeria.
 

alz wrote:

Okay I guess the draw is a lottery pick system, where Brazil is in Group A, team 1.

How do rankings factor into this? I can't find anything online that explains this process well at all.

It's a weighted lottery system. There are 32 teams in the WC. They are broken down into four "pots" of eight teams each, based on FIFA's world rankings formula, which involves each team's performance since the last World Cup. The top eight teams in the rankings that qualify for the tournament are in Pot 1, the next eight are in Pot 2, and so forth. 
For the group phase, one team from each pot is taken in a random draw. Someone (usually a past WC star) will literally pull ping-pong balls out of a pot (hence the terminology) and place them in groups. But there are exceptions. You can't be in a first round group with a team for your own confederation (except Europe, since 13 teams qualify and there has to be some overlap). 
They do this so, say, Spain, Holland, Germany and Italy all don't end up in the same group and two of the better Euro teams are knocked out in the first round.
 

alz wrote:

Interesting, and makes sense I suppose. That puts the us in the 3rd ring regardless of what we do really.

The good news is the rankings were updated on Thursday and we've moved up to 13th, which would put us in the second tier. 

I was watching baseball, but it was a wacky night in CONCACAF. All of Mexico is hailing the U.S. for keeping their hopes alive. Maybe the Mexican fans won't chuck bottles of urine at our guys when we play them down there anymore.
Here's who's in:
Europe

Belgium, Italy, Germany, Holland, Switzerland, Russia, Bosnia, England, Spain

(Plus four from play-off teams - Croatia, Sweden, Romania, Iceland, Portugal, Ukraine, Greece, France)


South America

Brazil (hosts), Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, Chile


North/Central America

United States, Costa Rica, Honduras

Asia

Japan, Australia, Iran, South Korea

Africa*

Ivory Coast v Senegal (3-1)
Ethiopia v Nigeria (1-2)
Tunisia v Cameroon (0-0)
Ghana v Egypt (6-1)
Burkina Faso v Algeria (3-2)


*second legs to be played between November 16 and 19.


Inter continental play-off

Jordan v Uruguay


Inter continental play-off

Mexico v New Zealand

 

Last edited by artie_fufkin (10/16/2013 9:32 am)

alz wrote:

Really have to feel bad for Panama, that was pretty heartbreaking... First the mexican bicycle kick and then the US scores two in extra time to beat them and kick them out of the World Cup.

I guess some of them were miffed we tried to win that game, having no need to do so, but we played almost none of our starters, and they were playing highly aggressive with a lead in stoppage time, and the kids we WERE playing were trying to get jobs. I can't see us throwing that game just to eliminate a pretty piss poor mexican squad who won't be playing in mexico even if they make the world cup (it's in brazil).

The Mexican team is probably lucky a foreigner who doesn't have the same animosity toward them is the U.S. coach. Bradley or Arena probably would have sent the Kirkwood High junior varsity to Panama if things were going to turn out the way they did. Of course you're right that there's the integrity of the qualification process to consider. Maybe New Zealand will knock ouf Mexico.

 

So 31 of the 32 teams are set, with only Uruguay's perfunctoy elimination of Jordan today remaining.
Prior to the draw against Scotland and the loss to Austria last night, the U.S. and A. was ranked 13th, and they'll probably end up 15th, which should be good enough to keep them in Pot 2 and be relatively assured of not being involved in a Group of Death scenario.

The seeding should shake out approximately:
Pot 1
Brazil
Spain
Germany
Argentina
Colombia
Belgium
Uruguay
Switzerland

Pot 2
Italy
Netherlands
England
Chile
USA
Portugal
Greece
Bosnia-Herz

Pot 3
Ivory Coast
Croatia
Russia
France
Ecuador
Ghana
Mexico
Costa Rica

Pot 4
Algeria
Nigeria
Honduras
Japan
Iran
South Korean
Australia
Cameroon

The ideal draw would be, say, the Swiss, Ecuador and Australia.
Spain, France and Japan would be a problem ...

 

alz wrote:

Yeah I was curious how the last two games would affect us. Until then, we'd had a pretty solid case to even move up a little higher in the rankings (although not to 7th which would have been the A pod cutoff since Brazil isn't in the top 8).

Hopefully we don't fall past 16th because of it.

The USA will be 14th when the updated rankings come out next week.
Portugal and Greece will pass them, but they'll pass Chile, and they're comfortably ahead of B-H and Ivory Coast.
It also looks like Portugal will move up to Pot 1, and Switzerland will move down. Sucks when you lose to South Korea.
 

Last edited by artie_fufkin (11/21/2013 10:49 am)

Portugal, Germany and Ghana. Could have been worse. But not much.

Guessing they didn't use the Nov 28 rankings? Portugal (5) and Germany (2) in the same group?

Meh, actually it doesn't worry me. I think we can beat Portugal and Ghana. Let's see if they can.

"I think we can beat Portugal and Ghana"

Before Rinaldo arrived, Portugal was historically an underacheiving team. The problem for the U.S. is his strength - attacking from the wings - is the U.S.' weakness.
The key is the first game against Ghana. If the U.S. loses, they're done. Three points won't be enough to advance. Four might get you to the next round in this group, though.

I know looking at the rankings calling a win over Portugal seems seriously optimistic, even homer-ish.

Ghana has to be a win. Then it's up to the result of Portual or Germany, and .... I think we have a much better chance of beating Portugal....