Max wrote:

forsberg_us wrote:

Max wrote:

Hawksworth's ERA last season looked bad because of the need to use him as a starter.  His work in the bullpen is still solid.

Not really.

Hawksworth's numbers out of the bullpen last season were:

1-4, 4.25 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .301 BAA with 9 HR allowed in 48.2 IP.

I am not sure where you are getting his bullpen numbers,

Baseball-reference.com

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=hawksbl01&year=2010&t=p

Max wrote:

but if you look at the season log on yahoo stats, you can see that he started very well, had a medium May, but still had an ERA of 2.35 until a couple of really bad outings

A medium May?  10 games, 11.1 IP, 12 ER (9.53 ERA), 4 HR and a 2.21 WHIP.  If that's medium, I'd hate to see bad.

Max wrote:

then got moved to spot starter and then regular starter and his ERA went through the ceiling.

Prior to his first start, Hawksworth's ERA was 5.31.  When he returned to the bullpen it was 5.30.  It actually went down (albeit negligibly) while he was in the rotation.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/8508/gamelog;_ylt=AsYJMmfEk_hccCAuHCBks_iFCLcF

Max wrote:

After his stint as a starter, he allowed 8 earned runs in 20.2 IP, for an ERA of about 3.4, which ain't terrible for a long reliever pitching in August and September

Actually it was 9 earned runs which pushes his ERA towards 4.

Max wrote:

I think you could pitch his numbers as a very credible setup man in a town that needs one.

Not to anyone who looks carefully at the numbers.  Hawksworth's worst relief inning was the 8th.  His ERA was 5.40 and his BAA was .357.  His best inning was the 6th.  That's Cal Eldred/Brad Thompson territory.

Max wrote:

We don;t, but that doesn't mean we should 'trade' him for a guy who was headed toward being released.

It does if you actually want Theriot.  I'm not sure that anyone here thinks Theriot should be the 2011 starting shortstop, but for whatever reason the Cardinals do.  The fact that the Dodgers are about to release him doesn't mean that none of the other 28 teams wouldn't have interest.  You let the Dodgers release him and you run the risk that Theriot chooses another team or receives a better offer.  Instead, they traded him for an expendable piece and don't have to worry about the other teams.

I guess lawyers must love to argue, or something.  In any case, here we go again . . .

"A medium May?  10 games, 11.1 IP, 12 ER (9.53 ERA), 4 HR and a 2.21 WHIP.  If that's medium, I'd hate to see bad."

A medium May until he had two crappy outings that sent his ERA from 2.31 to 5.40.  One more medium bad outing sent his ERA to 5.59.  After that, . . .

"Prior to his first start, Hawksworth's ERA was 5.31.  When he returned to the bullpen it was 5.30.  It actually went down (albeit negligibly) while he was in the rotation."

two scoreless outings brought his ERA down to 5.14 (not 5.31), before his first spot start.  So, not that this is the crux of my argument, but his ERA went up, not down, during the period he began starting games. 

"Actually it was 9 earned runs which pushes his ERA towards 4.

You are correct.  I neglected to include the fact that a freak line drive hit him in the face, ending his season, and allowing a batter to reach base on what was ruled a single.  While Hawksworth was presumably on his way to the hospital, Fernando Salas then coughed up a triple to Blake DeWitt, scoring a runner charged to Hawksworth.  Thus, his ERA was about 3.85 after being reconverted to the bullpen after his stints as starter and spot starter. 

"Not to anyone who looks carefully at the numbers.  Hawksworth's worst relief inning was the 8th.  His ERA was 5.40 and his BAA was .357.  His best inning was the 6th.  That's Cal Eldred/Brad Thompson territory."

This is the worst part of your argument, if you were trying to build Hawksworth's value, rather than act as Moz's apologist.  Hawksworth is a long reliever.  If he's pitching in the 8th, it is not likely his first inning.  Almost ALL relievers pitch best in their first inning of relief, and decline quickly thereafter.  Thus we expect a long reliever to do best in his first inning (which is probably around the 6th inning for a long reliever) and worst in his last inning (the 8th).  Cal Eldred and Brad Thompson were also both long relievers, and both probably had some trade value until they were kept in that role for too long. 

"It does if you actually want Theriot.  I'm not sure that anyone here thinks Theriot should be the 2011 starting shortstop, but for whatever reason the Cardinals do.  The fact that the Dodgers are about to release him doesn't mean that none of the other 28 teams wouldn't have interest.  You let the Dodgers release him and you run the risk that Theriot chooses another team or receives a better offer.  Instead, they traded him for an expendable piece and don't have to worry about the other teams."

This is your best argument, IMO, but I am still not on board 100%.  What it says is that we want Ryan gone so bad that we are not willing to risk the uncertainty in our ability to sign Theriot, when going mano-a-mano against the other MLB teams, to the extent that we are willing to offer up a tradable chit, to secure exclusive rights to Ryan Theriot.  Frankly, that's fucking pathetic.  It's pathetic that the team feels the need to dump Ryan that badly, and it's pathetic that our sights are set on someone so low that the Dodgers can't find a place for him on their team.  There is low hanging fruit, and there is fruit that has fallen off and is being devoured by worms.  My hunch is that Pujols has a minimum threshold of "legitimate low hanging fruit" for the other starters on his team.  Not some sloppy second that the Dodgers can't find a place for.

Last edited by Max (12/01/2010 1:23 am)

forsberg_us wrote:

Let me try this another way.  The rumor was that the other shortstop the Cardinals were showing interest in was Jason Bartlett and that Tampa wanted Motte for Bartlett.  Would you rather have Theriot for Hawksworth or Bartlett for Motte?

And as much as you may want the answer to be Brendan Ryan, it's pretty apparent that's not happening.

The price for Bartlett shouldnt been that high.  I cant believe that Theriot is at the top of the scrape pile.

APRTW wrote:

forsberg_us wrote:

Let me try this another way.  The rumor was that the other shortstop the Cardinals were showing interest in was Jason Bartlett and that Tampa wanted Motte for Bartlett.  Would you rather have Theriot for Hawksworth or Bartlett for Motte?

And as much as you may want the answer to be Brendan Ryan, it's pretty apparent that's not happening.

The price for Bartlett shouldnt been that high.  I cant believe that Theriot is at the top of the scrape pile.

I was OK with this until I listened to that interview with Moz, who appeared to find it absurd that anyone would ask him whether Theriot was signed as a utility infielder rather than the starting shortstop for this season.
Ryan must be an incredible prick, because I'd rather have his .279 OBP and superior defense than Theriot's .320 OBP and average defense.

Last edited by artie_fufkin (12/01/2010 10:36 am)

Giving up on Ryan is a mistake if the replacement is going to be a guy of this level.  I could see Ryan's production increasing but I think Theriot flash in the pan as a everyday player is over.

artie_fufkin wrote:

Ryan must be an incredible prick.

In my experience, or rather, this is something that happened to . . . er, a friend of mine, the employee doesn't have to be an incredible prick to get the heave ho, he merely has to clash with an anal retentive control-freak boss.  And if we are talking about 99% of all boss's who have survived in their position for any length of time, then the adjectives I used in front of "boss" are redundant.

We agree on a lot.  Particularly on descriptions of the basic state of things.  We might differ on solutions, but that is the case with almost everybody.  Maybe that is the art of politics, getting people to focus on the problem rather than the solution, because large majorities can come together for the former and no majority at all exists for the latter.

Last edited by Max (12/01/2010 11:42 am)

APRTW wrote:

Giving up on Ryan is a mistake if the replacement is going to be a guy of this level.  I could see Ryan's production increasing but I think Theriot flash in the pan as a everyday player is over.

If Ryan is as big of a problem in the clubhouse as I've been told, they have to move him.  Much better players have been moved for the same reason.  It's not like we're talking about Randy Moss.  (happy) (happy) (happy)

Fors, you had mentioned that you heard Schumaker was out at second base, but that was before La Russa was committed to coming back. Given what's been said, is it safe to assume that Tone is the only reason Schumaker will return to second base?

"Hummel also mentioned, which I had not yet heard, that Tejada signed with the Giants."

Good. I hope they play him at shortstop.

So La Russa's proposed defensive alignment is:

Yadi - C
Albert - 1B
Skippy - 2B
Theriot - SS
Freese's injury replacement - 3B
Berkman - LF
Kobe - CF
Holliday - RF

I'm going to be ill ...

artie_fufkin wrote:

So La Russa's proposed defensive alignment is:

Yadi - C
Albert - 1B
Skippy - 2B
Theriot - SS
Freese's injury replacement - 3B
Berkman - LF
Kobe - CF
Holliday - RF

I'm going to be ill ...

The lineup will be

Theriot or Skip
Berckman
Pujols
Holliday
Colby
Molina
Freese
Skip or Theriot

APRTW wrote:

So if Ryan is gone and Theriot is the everydayer then they still need a backup.  I assume that Miles will be back as well. 

The Berkman deal is odd.  He wasnt very good last year and has been declining for years.  If they are going to play Fat Elvis in lef then they might as well sign Adam Dunn.  Or all joking aside Derrek Lee.  Of course as soon as they sign a career first baseman then the Pujols trade rumors will start.

I don't expect Miles to be back. I think Descalso or Greene will make the team and they'll want a veteran backup who can play third when Freese gets hurt. Miles isn't that guy. If so, he'd have been there last season.

BTW- 5 stars for the Fat Elvis line.