tkihshbt wrote:

Strange move to say the least...at least it'll make the lineup easier to watch.

It will for the 70 games Berkman actually plays. This has Larry Walker 2005 written all over it.

forsberg_us wrote:

tkihshbt wrote:

Strange move to say the least...at least it'll make the lineup easier to watch.

It will for the 70 games Berkman actually plays. This has Larry Walker 2005 written all over it.

My first reaction is that if this doesn't work out, this, or something similar, will be the tipping point that ends Moz's career in St. Louis.

If the Cardinals would sign a SS like Hardy and move theriot to 2B I might be really impressed with the lineup.  Part of the appeal to Berkman had to be batting in front of Pujols.

Good grief, he hit .245/.372/.436 in 85 games with the Astros. In terms of being able to hit .290 with 30 home runs, I'd agree he's done. But he's still a perfectly capable hitter against right-handers.

asking Holliday to take right, and thereby screwing up his mental side of the game at the plate

I'm guessing Matt Holliday is mentally stable enough to catch fly balls at a different angle and hit the ball. If not, then he needs to retire from professional baseball.

Absolutely. This is a La Russa fetish that could actually pay off.

tkihshbt wrote:

Absolutely. This is a La Russa fetish that could actually pay off.

well, this may have to be one of those rare circumstances where you and i will have to disagree.

but i encourage you to make a mental note, and in 3-12 months we can see who was right.  my strong hunch is that we won't need to wait until this time next year to know whether the cards got their money's worth, but if we do, then you will probably have been right.

but this reminds me of a debate several years back regarding reggie sanders and sammy sosa.  sosa just had the look and feel of a guy who was sliding down the steep slippery back slope of life, and that turned out to be case with sosa that year.  berkman's numbers look even worse, imo.

APRTW wrote:

tkihshbt wrote:

Good grief, he hit .245/.372/.436 in 85 games with the Astros. In terms of being able to hit .290 with 30 home runs, I'd agree he's done. But he's still a perfectly capable hitter against right-handers.

asking Holliday to take right, and thereby screwing up his mental side of the game at the plate

I'm guessing Matt Holliday is mentally stable enough to catch fly balls at a different angle and hit the ball. If not, then he needs to retire from professional baseball.

I have stated here many times before that right field for the Cardinals is tougher then most places.  I will agree that Berkman wont forget how to hit over night.  The guy will still be able to work the count and draw walks.  I doubt he hits at a 30/100/.300 pace but 20/75/.280 isnt out of the question.  And Berkman cant be any worst then Dunn in left.

First comment, assuming that he shows up as a guy who can perform somewhere in between  the 14/58/.248 that he produced last year, and the 20/75/.280 you are hoping for, I'm not sure that there is anywhere in that order that La Russa can bat Berkman such that his BBs do any good at all.  With numbers like those I see him batting in front of Molina.

Theriot-Schu-Pujols-Holliday-Rasmus-Freese-Berkman-Molina-Pitcher

tkihshbt wrote:

Sosa isn't comparable to Berkman. He had amazing power and no other secondary batting skills.

everybody is comparable to everybody if you recognize that their performance, graphed over their career, will fit some form of bell-shaped curve.  each player's curve will be different, and sometimes the curve won't be completely smooth, but averaged over many players, the curve will be beautiful.  the backside of the curve starts out as a slow convex descent, picks up speed, hits an inflection point and begins slowing down again.  if you eyeball berkman's numbers, he seems to have hit the steep part of backslope.  i am not exaggerating at all when i predict that he is totally and thoroughly done.  i hope i'm wrong.

APRTW wrote:

If the Cardinals would sign a SS like Hardy and move theriot to 2B I might be really impressed with the lineup.  Part of the appeal to Berkman had to be batting in front of Pujols.

with his wheels???  have you read any indication that they might bat him 2nd?

Mags wrote:

I like the guy very much and hope he does well where ever he plays but I look for the Cardinals to be paying him that 8 million dollars while he's going on and off the DL for Kansas City before the All Star game.

Ah, the benefits of brainstorming.  I think I know what's going on.  Moz and LaRussa hope to repeat with Walt and Larussa did in 2000 with Bonilla and Pujols.   Go into spring training with Berkman written in stone as a starting outfielder.  Then when he goes on the DL before the season starts, bring up some rookie who played most of last season in A ball and expect him to hit over 30 homes, bat over .300, drive in 100 plus runs, and score 100 plus.

It worked once.  There's no reason not to try it again.

Last edited by Mags (12/05/2010 12:29 am)

forsberg_us wrote:

Tk, this one where I'm actually going to side with Max. I agree with the idea of a .380+ OBP hitting in front of Pujols, but I think there's a real concern about Berkman's ability to stay healthy playing in the outfield. He's had trouble staying healthy at first, now we're asking his knees to endure playing the field.

Also, as you pointed out the other day, there was reason to think Craig could be productive. I don't think he can be productive off of the bench and now, barring a sudden change of heart that puts him back at third, Craig will be left out.

Obviously I hope this works out, but I'm not so sure.

Well, I guess the guy that takes over on opening day could be someone who played most of last season at Memphis.  It could still work.

Max wrote:

tkihshbt wrote:

Sosa isn't comparable to Berkman. He had amazing power and no other secondary batting skills.

everybody is comparable to everybody if you recognize that their performance, graphed over their career, will fit some form of bell-shaped curve.  each player's curve will be different, and sometimes the curve won't be completely smooth, but averaged over many players, the curve will be beautiful.  the backside of the curve starts out as a slow convex descent, picks up speed, hits an inflection point and begins slowing down again.  if you eyeball berkman's numbers, he seems to have hit the steep part of backslope.  i am not exaggerating at all when i predict that he is totally and thoroughly done.  i hope i'm wrong.

Yeah...you couldn't be more wrong. This doesn't even make the slightest bit of sense in explaining how Lance Berkman is just like Sammy Sosa.

Sammy Sosa fell off because his best skill was swinging the bat really hard and watching the ball go really, really far. As he got older, that bat speed declined and he didn't have the plate discipline to compensate for the decline in average and power.

Yes, every player ever who got enough plate appearances followed the same path. In that way, Sosa and Berkman are exactly the same, in the same way every human being born comes out of a uterus and eventually dies. Nothing you said was rooted in baseball. Had you said "Berkman hit fewer line drives, fewer fly balls and more ground balls...that doesn't look good," THAT would've been more acceptable in explaining why Berkman is done.

Hitting .245/.368/.436 doesn't make a player done, just like Jim Edmonds' 2007 season didn't make him done.

And c'mon...have you watched ANY Cardinals games since La Russa has been in the dugout? Do you honestly think he's going to send Berkman out there against lefties, who he hit just .195 against? Or (and this sounds crazy) do you think he'll bat him against right-handers and pull him after seven innings?