forsberg_us wrote:

They just bet the 2011 season on Berkman being able to stay healthy playing the outfield. I really like Lance Berkman. I respect him as a player. I really hope he has something left in the tank, but I'm not sure why we think there will be.

Berkman would not have been my first option. But seeing the bizarre personnel moves they've made, this one doesn't bother me much. I'm guessing La Russa feels confident in his ability to protect Berkman.

tkihshbt wrote:

Max wrote:

tkihshbt wrote:

Sosa isn't comparable to Berkman. He had amazing power and no other secondary batting skills.

everybody is comparable to everybody if you recognize that their performance, graphed over their career, will fit some form of bell-shaped curve.  each player's curve will be different, and sometimes the curve won't be completely smooth, but averaged over many players, the curve will be beautiful.  the backside of the curve starts out as a slow convex descent, picks up speed, hits an inflection point and begins slowing down again.  if you eyeball berkman's numbers, he seems to have hit the steep part of backslope.  i am not exaggerating at all when i predict that he is totally and thoroughly done.  i hope i'm wrong.

Yeah...you couldn't be more wrong. This doesn't even make the slightest bit of sense in explaining how Lance Berkman is just like Sammy Sosa.

Sammy Sosa fell off because his best skill was swinging the bat really hard and watching the ball go really, really far. As he got older, that bat speed declined and he didn't have the plate discipline to compensate for the decline in average and power.

Yes, every player ever who got enough plate appearances followed the same path. In that way, Sosa and Berkman are exactly the same, in the same way every human being born comes out of a uterus and eventually dies. Nothing you said was rooted in baseball. Had you said "Berkman hit fewer line drives, fewer fly balls and more ground balls...that doesn't look good," THAT would've been more acceptable in explaining why Berkman is done.

Hitting .245/.368/.436 doesn't make a player done, just like Jim Edmonds' 2007 season didn't make him done.

And c'mon...have you watched ANY Cardinals games since La Russa has been in the dugout? Do you honestly think he's going to send Berkman out there against lefties, who he hit just .195 against? Or (and this sounds crazy) do you think he'll bat him against right-handers and pull him after seven innings?

The simple answer is that we'll just have to see. 

A slightly more sophisticated response is that first and foremost Berkman must remain healthy enough to play.  Jim Edmonds was still a competent CF in 2007.  Berkman has had a hard time staying healthy at 1B.

This is like deja vu because it the very same argument I had with someone (I thought it was a Cub Fan, but the argument was much like yours) about Sanders and Sosa.  I won't claim any specialized knowledge about my ability to predict the slopiness of a players latter years in baseball, other than what my eyes tell me.  Some guys tail off slow but steady, and other guys drop off the chart.  And FWIW, Jim Edmonds isn't a great example for you, either.  In 2008 he was 20/57/.235, not completely all the way done, but then again we are comparing a guy who could still play 103 Gs at CF, versus a guy who manged 93 Gs at 1B.  So, imagine if Berkman can pull off a Jim Edmonds type dance with death, and delay the inevitable for one more season, and maybe we get 103 G, 20/57/.235, for our 8 million bucks.  I'm not sure that gamble was worth the possibility that he's done before the ASG, and that we kept someone like Criag from showing whether he can be a star at the MLB level. 

And what's more, a guy like Berkman is exactly what we do not need in front of Pujols.  Pujols' great strength as a hitter has been to take what the pitcher gives him.  But with a hobbled runner like Berkman on base I think it could wind up in too many double plays, too many cases where Berkman is out at second on a Pujols single, and the result will be that Pujols starts swinging for the fences.

Last edited by Max (12/05/2010 12:14 pm)

Max wrote:

forsberg_us wrote:

Max, I would expect Berkman to hit in front of Pujols. It's not about having a guy with wheels, it's about having a guy who gets on base. Larussa isn't going to let the hitter in front of Pujols run anyway. It's about getting on base so teams are less inclined to walk Pujols. Berkman's OBP suggests he can still do that.

One other aspect of this trade to consider. As far as the roster goes, this team is pretty much done. They may dumpster dive to fill the bench, but that's it.  And when I say that's it, I'm including during the season. Between the salary escalators, the Westbrook signing and now this, it's unlikely Uncle Bill spends anymore money. There won't be a mid season fix--at least not one that adds payroll.

They just bet the 2011 season on Berkman being able to stay healthy playing the outfield. I really like Lance Berkman. I respect him as a player. I really hope he has something left in the tank, but I'm not sure why we think there will be.

My concern with getting someone as slow as Berkman on base in front of Pujols is adding to his already large double play potential, when they should be trying to decrease that. 

I agree with you about the payroll issue, too.  It looks like they've shot their wad on Westbrook and Berkman. Westbrook looks to be a good a bet, but Berkman is a very risky throw of the dice.

I don't think the speed of the player on base has anything to do with Pujols' DP potential if you don't let the player run. You could put Juan Pierre on first and if Pujols hits a ground ball it's still a double play. In that sense the best way to minimize Pujols' double play potential is with a player who hits extra base hits. Berkman fits that mold.

As far as taking extra bases on singles, that could be an issue, but keep in mind that the OF is extra deep when Pujols bats. That makes it easier for a runner to take an extra base.

A pure power hitter will fail off alot quicker then a hitter to all fields, high OBP, low SO guy who also hits HRs.  Cardinals seem to stay away from hitters like Sosa and go with the Pujols, Holliday, Berkman type because you have a good idea what to expect. 

Berkman hits well in every NL central stadium other then Wrigley.  In his career he has hit more HRs away then home.

Berkman isnt going to drag-ass on the basepads.  He is a 100% effort player.  He is only 2 years removed from stealing 18 bases.  With Berkman on board the Cardinals could have 3 +.400 OBP guys in the middle of the order, 4 if Rasmus improves as much as he did from his rookie to 2nd year.  That is exactly what we need to see batting in front Pujols. 

Berkman is a steady hitter.  He doesnt try to do to much and will take a walk.  It is going to be a bitch for pitchers to pitch to Berkman, Pujols and Holliday all in one inning.  Their pitch count will soar.  His production is not going to be the risk.  He is very likely to be better then Jay.  Even if he has a year like he had in 2010 it wont kill the team compared to what Jay would have offered.  The risk is in the field.

Last edited by APRTW (12/05/2010 12:15 pm)

Check out the projected lineup

Theriot
Berkman
Pujols
Holliday
Rasmus
Molina
Craig/freese
Skip

APRTW wrote:

This pretty clearly states the pros and cons to the direction of the Cardinals. 

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/jeff-gordon/article_9bd90e84-007f-11e0-ac28-0017a4a78c22.html

Well, I hope it all works out that way, because as i have said several times, Gordon sounds best when the Cards are doing well.

“We’ve really just changed the look of our clubhouse and added some new energy,† Mozeliak said. “What you’re looking at now is pretty much a set club.â€

Also Moz said that Ryan could and is willing to stay with the club in a backup role.

It doesnt matter who is on first when Pujols comes to bat.  I would rather just have people on in front of him.

windwalker wrote:

Max wrote:

something will come up that gives him a chance to play, such as Khalil Greene's breakdown, and he'll get a second chance.

I think its at least equally likely that he'll HAVE a Khalil Greene breakdown.

I doutb it.  Greene doubted himself.  Ryan is overly ful of himself.

I think Craig is the other 20 HR guy but yeah I agree.

During a radio interview this morning, Moz stated that they were undecided as to whether or not Holliday or Berkman would play right field.  It was fairly entertaining listening to him try to explain this without coming out and saying that they hadn't decided whether it would be better to be really bad in one spot or simply worse in 2 places.

No opinion yet from Bernie, but the rest of the P-D sports journo corp are not hiding their ambivalence about acquiring Berkman.  Strauss is perhaps the most comprehensive and straight-forward: "Many at the Winter Meetings are stupefied over the Cardinals signing of Berkman as an everyday OF." And there is this scoop: "What the Cardinals never said publicly is that it had serious concerns about Craig's defense, especially in RF."

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/round-two/article_20bfffbc-015d-11e0-9440-0017a4a78c22.html

Max wrote:

No opinion yet from Bernie, but the rest of the P-D sports journo corp are not hiding their ambivalence about acquiring Berkman.  Strauss is perhaps the most comprehensive and straight-forward: "Many at the Winter Meetings are stupefied over the Cardinals signing of Berkman as an everyday OF." And there is this scoop: "What the Cardinals never said publicly is that it had serious concerns about Craig's defense, especially in RF."

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/round-two/article_20bfffbc-015d-11e0-9440-0017a4a78c22.html

You didn't look hard enough:

"In conclusion: this is certainly an unusual move, given Berkman's three-year absence from the corner outfield. And he has to show that he can stay healthy. And can still hit for power. But I like the gamble here. He's been a terrific major-league hitter and an OBP machine, which is something the Cardinals clearly need at the top of their lineup ahead of Pujols and Holliday. Berkman figures to be rejuvenated by a move to St. Louis and playing in a baseball-crazy town that energizes the players. Larry Walker and Will Clark were enlivened by coming to St. Louis, though their situations at the time were different than what Berkman faces now. For obvious reasons."

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/bernie-miklasz/article_e85632ca-00af-11e0-ab76-00127992bc8b.html

Interesting take from Larussa on the batting order issue.  Personally, I think Berkman is less a threat hitting fifth than hitting second.  Hitting second, you can take advantage of his ability to get on base.  Hitting 5th, he has to show some power and he has to drive in runs.  With Freese, Schumaker and Molina hitting behind him, Berkman's walks are a lot more likely to be wasted.  For what it's worth, I'm not the only one who expects to see Berkman in the #2 spot.  More from Bernie:

"La Russa likes to have the combination of power and high OBP in the No. 2 hole, so Berkman figures to be the leading candidate to hit there in 2011. Even in an off year, 2010, Berkman had a .372 OBP for the Astros. La Russa doesn't use the No. 2 spot for guys who bunt and slap the ball to the right side to move a runner over. He likes some danger in the No. 2 spot. It's been this way for 15 years, so I don't know why anyone would believe La Russa will now use a "small ball" approach in the No. 2 lineup spot, especially after landing Berkman."