I know heyward is only 25 but I think he is the player he has shown himself to be.  A good year for him is going to be .270/15/60.  I think the cards know that and will bid according.   I think if they win that bidding they will get what they paid for, for the duration of the contract.  It is really hard to figure out the value of heyward over the course of a full season vs all the moving parts and combinations the cardinals have.  Moss (lf, rf, 1st), grichuk (lf, rf, cf), piscotty (1st, lf, rf).  Not to mention heywards defense and excellent base stealing effectivness.  It is brain racking to think of all the possiblities but it really boils down to 2 options offensively.

Option 1:  bet on reemergence of power from grichuk, holliday, adams and moss while counting on piscotty and carp to stay steady with the power they have found.  Adding heyward basicly doesnt subtract or detract from the offense.  He is a fine player but just a piece in the puzzle.  A 20 million dollar piece at that.  This option basicly is the cards saying what they have said for the past several years.  That the cardinals will hit in a matter of time.  That line of thinking is getting stale.

Option 2:  finally become aware that the center of this lineup is failing and the offense once again needs a player to build around.  A power threat.  This looks to have to come via trade.  The cardinals no longer have surplus pitching which complicates matters in trading.  As you stated, 1st and 3rd are places that could be manuvered.   Again heyward doesnt really add or subtract from this option either.

In typing all that it is clear signing heyward and a pitcher like buerlhe isnt going to make the cardinals better then they were in 2015.  It will be a 3 way battle in the division and the cards will likely behave the same as they have.  Patchwork, many brief call ups, lagging offense, mid season diving and a team that runs out of gas.  I dont think signing heyward really increases the cardinals win total.  He is more of a safty net.  With piscotty and grichuk there is more risk.  With heyward your buying the assurances of mediocre offense and excellent un meassurable defensive skills.  If the cardinLs didnt have 20 million to spend heyward would be disinteresting But I believe the cardinals have the money to spend on a 20 million dollar safty net.   My frusterations will be if thats all they do.

"A good year for him is going to be .270/15/60.  I think the cards know that and will bid according."

Heyward's situation is a dilemma because it puts traditional measures of value against modern metrics.  If the Cardinals value Heyward as a .270/15/60/20 (I'll throw in stolen bases), then they won't re-sign him because the Cardinals' offer will likely be well below what someone will pay.  

On the other hand, if you look at the advanced metrics, Heyward's WAR last year (6.5) was 10th among MLB position players.  His WAR in 2014 (6.2) placed him just outside of the top 10.  That 2-year total is better than Andrew McCutcheon.  In fact, the only position players with a better 2 year WAR total are Mike Trout, Josh Donaldson, Paul Goldschmidt, Lorenzo Cain and Adrian Beltre.  If you look at the advanced metrics (which more and more teams are doing), Heyward is a vastly superior player than Jacoby Ellsbury whose last contract was 7/$153, and Ellsbury was 30 when he signed that deal, whereas Heyward is 26.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I honestly believe Heyward will get something in the range of $160-180M over 8 years.  Believing that's the case, I grapple with the question of whether the Cardinals should re-sign him.  There is absolutely a part of me that thinks, because of the unimpressive offensive numbers, that Heyward isn't worth that kind of money.  However, there's also a part of me that remembers last season, and remembers Heyward making exceptional plays in the field, remembers him throwing out base runners in the final week series against the Pirates and remembers his exceptional base running.  When I think of all that, I'm reminded that there's more than one way to win ball games.  According to WAR (or at least Baseball Reference's version of WAR), Jason Heyward is one of the best players in baseball at helping his team win games.

I honestly don't know what I want the Cardinals to do in this situation, unless the options include signing Heyward and someone else as well.

 

forsberg_us wrote:

I honestly don't know what I want the Cardinals to do in this situation, unless the options include signing Heyward and someone else as well.

 

 

Thats my sentiment as well.  If the cardinals had a prime years version of pujols or holliday batting in the middle of the order id love to see heyward resigned.  It is true there is more then one way to win ballgames but with a fading holliday, molina and peralta im not sure the offense can go unaddressed.   Id love to see the cardinals sign someone significant as well as heyward, that isnt their style tho.  Im not sure the current pitching staff can dominate at the level 2015 staff did.  Replacing lynn with a similar version doesnt do it for me.  They need heyward, middle of the order batter and a top of the rotation pitcher.  2 of 3 might work.  1 of 3 will lead to disappointment. 

Sign heyward, sign price, sign buerhle and trade wacha, wong and prospect for an impact hitter. Just playing fantasy gm.

I dont see anyone in the organization as untouchable.  Everything has a price...like fors sited, adams is a perfect example of that.

Not sure how i feel about it.  It is very un cardinal like

artie_fufkin wrote:

Sounds like a typical Boras ploy - trying to enhance the market for a client using unnamed "major league sources."
There was a report in the Boston Globe today that Lackey wants to pitch for either the Cubs or the Giants.

Agreed. It reads like Boras could have written it. There's even a plug for Holliday's 2017 FA status in there.

The Lackey report I saw said he preferred to stay in the NL and that the Giants and Cubs appeared to be good matches.

Last edited by JV (11/23/2015 10:03 am)

JV wrote:

artie_fufkin wrote:

Sounds like a typical Boras ploy - trying to enhance the market for a client using unnamed "major league sources."
There was a report in the Boston Globe today that Lackey wants to pitch for either the Cubs or the Giants.

Agreed. It reads like Boras could have written it. There's even a plug for Holliday's 2017 FA status in there.

The Lackey report I saw said he preferred to stay in the NL and that the Giants and Cubs appeared to be good matches.

You are correct, sir: "Lackey wants to stay in the NL, and the Cubs and Giants may have the best shot of signing him."
Keep in mind the source is Cafardo. I doubt Lackey would confide in anyone associated with the Boston media, after they outed his divorce proceedings while he was here.
 

And he was supposed to be the cheaper of the top of the rotation pitcher available.

APIAD wrote:

Cueto rejects 6/120 deal from dbacks. Thats suprising, both that he would reject it and that the dbacks would offer. I wonder if this is the beginning of an ex nl central player fetish for tlr.

Very surprised La Russa endorsed that offer.

APIAD wrote:

And he was supposed to be the cheaper of the top of the rotation pitcher available.

He probably will be.  I've seen stories hinting at the idea that Greinke could get something in the $27M AAV range and Price is expected to exceed $30M/year.

The TV money has completely changed the landscape.  Salary values from even 2-3 years ago just don't mean much anymore.

I don't think Mozeliak needs to defend his record of not splurging on free agents. I don't think another NL team has won as many games as the Cardinals since 2009. That said, they need to pay up this winter.

And the first move has been made. The Cards signed Brayan Pena to a two-year deal.