"Strengths And Weaknesses Of The Trade Market

By Tim Dierkes [July 12 at 9:56am CST]

A dozen teams look like potential July 31st sellers, if we exclude the Rockies.  With assumptions on who the Blue Jays, Orioles, Royals, Mariners, Athletics, Mets, Nationals, Marlins, Cubs, Astros, Dodgers, and Padres might be willing to move, let's examine the strengths and weaknesses of the 2011 trade market.
•Catcher: Weak.  If you're looking to add a starting catcher, the out-of-contention teams have very little to offer.  You might be able to get a Ronny Paulino or a Rod Barajas, but this group is more about backups.  Two players who could shake up this market if made available: Geovany Soto and Ramon Hernandez.
•First base: Weak.  Relative to how few contenders actually need a first baseman, the outlook isn't awful.  Carlos Pena is the headliner.  Derrek Lee and James Loney are disappointing players who could still make a difference.  Guys like Luke Scott and Mark Reynolds are not generally considered first basemen but they could play the position regularly for a few months if need be.
•Second base: Weak.  There are some players capable of starting at second, such as Jeff Baker, Jeff Keppinger, Omar Infante, and Jamey Carroll.  Still, there's not really a difference-maker.
•Shortstop: Weak.  A team could try a salary dump player like Rafael Furcal, or check in on Jason Bartlett and Juan Uribe.  This position does have long shot potential to become strong if J.J. Hardy, Jose Reyes, or Hanley Ramirez become available.
•Third base: Weak.  Reynolds is probably the only quality regular.  Wilson Betemit, Edwin Encarnacion, and Ian Stewart are worth a look.  Wild card: Aramis Ramirez if he changes his stance on being traded.
•Corner outfield: Weak.  Carlos Beltran is definitely the top name, with Kosuke Fukudome, Ryan Ludwick, Jeff Francoeur, David DeJesus, Josh Willingham, and Scott rounding out a less-than-stellar group of bats.  Hunter Pence is the potential wild card, though the Astros are not expected to move him.
•Center field: Strong.  Coco Crisp and Marlon Byrd are viable options, while DeJesus could be passable.  There's also the chance that Colby Rasmus, B.J. Upton, and Michael Bourn are made available.
•Designated hitter: Weak.  Take your pick from Vladimir Guerrero, Scott, Encarnacion, Jack Cust, and Hideki Matsui, but none of the AL teams will find clear upgrades.
•Bench: Strong.  Reed Johnson, Greg Dobbs, Laynce Nix - there should be a veteran to fill most bench needs.
•Starting pitching: Weak.  I agree with the idea that the market mostly features fourth starters: Jeff Francis, Jason Marquis, Javier Vazquez, Aaron Harang, and the like.  Chris Capuano, Erik Bedard, and Rich Harden are more interesting when healthy.  The Dodgers and Astros could shake things up by offering Hiroki Kuroda, Ted Lilly, Wandy Rodriguez, and Brett Myers, and the Braves and Rays could also make waves with their depth.  Five wild cards that would change everything: Ubaldo Jimenez, Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco, Jeremy Guthrie, and Francisco Liriano.
•Right-handed relief: Strong.  I came up with 24 viable right-handed reliever trade candidates, and some of them aren't even members of the Blue Jays or Padres.  This group features closers like Heath Bell, Francisco Rodriguez, and Leo Nunez, plus top setup men such as Koji Uehara, Mike Adams, and Grant Balfour.
•Left-handed relief: Weak.  For the most part, the market offers overpaid lefties like Brian Fuentes, Mike Gonzalez, and John Grabow.  But there are a few interesting choices such as Randy Choate and Tim Byrdak.
•In general, this trade market looks especially ugly.  That can change in an instant if certain players become available, but right now middle-of-the-order bats and front-end starters appear scarce.
"

APRTW wrote:

forsberg_us wrote:

If the Mariners are smart, they should be in full blown seller mode.  7 1/2 back, 5 games under .500.  They aren't catching the Rangers or the Angels.

WTF happened to Chone Figgins?  .183 with a .231 OBP???  How is that possible?

The only thing that might make them buyers is if they are stupid and they are.  Still the rest of the world sees what position they are in, except Max.

There are multiple reasons why they might be buyers, or at least not major sellers:

1. You don't need to make up your mind for another week or two.  They were in the thick of it a week or two back, and could be right back in it in another week or so.

2. If the right player becomes available as a midseason salary dump, a team with resources to spare can position themselves for next year.

3. Who do they have to sell?  It's very unlikley, IMO, that they move either Ichiro or Hernandez, and Figgins is probably unmovable.  Not counting guys on the DL, who are difficult to trade midseason anyway, that takes care of all players earning more than $5 million.  They could trade Wilson's $5 m, but that wouldn't even be a sale, since they are happy with Ryan.  Then there's Gutierrez and his $4.3 m and .455 OPS, which is a hard sell for CF.  They have 4 guys earning around $2.5 m, but you start getting to a point of diminishing returns.  If the fans see the team as sellers and stop buying tickets, how valuable is it to save two months pro-rated salary of $2.5 m?  I am sure someone could do a more sophisticated analysis, but I don't see them being able to take money off the books, such as last year's dump of Lee.

As I said, we'll just have to see.

"1. You don't need to make up your mind for another week or two.  They were in the thick of it a week or two back, and could be right back in it in another week or so."

I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that the Mariners' 9 game losing streak which happened to coincide with Texas' 11 game winning streak has sealed the Mariners' fate.

Seattle has proven multiple times now that having an elite defense (and they are elite) and a terrific pitching staff but no offense at all is simply not going to work.

Jon Jay would do wonderful in Seattle. Safeco is tailor-made for a hitter like that.

tkihshbt wrote:

Seattle has proven multiple times now that having an elite defense (and they are elite) and a terrific pitching staff but no offense at all is simply not going to work.

Jon Jay would do wonderful in Seattle. Safeco is tailor-made for a hitter like that.

But which do you think would be better for the Cardinals, dealing Rasmus (assuming we get full value for him) and playing Jay, or dealing Jay and having Rasmus as the lone ranger for CF?  Who would we get for either from Seattle?  Kennedy has already had his 15 minutes of fame in a Cardinal uniform.  Please don't suggest Wilson for Jay straight up, in spite of the stiffy that La Russa might get thinking of a veteran power hitter at SS. 

At the risk of AP taunting me a second time, my hunch [continues in a terrible British accent], as Seattle's collapse continues unabated, is that if they make any major moves at the trade deadline, it will be a strategic move for next year, perhaps bringing in a power-hitting semi-star.  Rasmus fits that mold.

Last edited by Max (7/19/2011 10:45 am)

artie_fufkin wrote:

I just heard the Mets are willing to pick up Beltran's salary for the rest of the year if a team is willing to deal them prospects.

I dont know how he fits on the Cardinals but with the year Beltran is having he is going to be a difference maker to the right team.

Max, a couple of questions (no--I am not looking to start an argument, I simply want to understand your line of thinking as to these issues)

1) You've mentioned Wilson's name several times and linked him to the Cardinals a couple of times.  I'm curious why you believe the Cardinals would be interested in Wilson given that he's sitting behind a cheaper version of the player the Cardinals traded to Seattle and given that the Cardinals have clearly indicated that they are willing to sacrifice defense for offense (something Wilson doesn't bring to the table).

2) In thinking that the Mariners would be interested in Beltran, are you saying that you think it makes sense, or are you suggesting that the Mariners' front office is foolish enough to do this?  Setting aside the fact that it's highly unlikely Beltran would waive his no-trade to go to a team with no playoff aspirations, why would it make sense for Seattle to trade prospects for a 2 month rental who will pursue the highest bidder after the season?

I would agree with you that it would make sense for Seattle to trade any veteran it can for any prospect of even marginal value.  But if their GM makes any move that places more importance on 2011 rather than the future, he should be fired on the spot.

artie_fufkin wrote:

APRTW wrote:

artie_fufkin wrote:

I just heard the Mets are willing to pick up Beltran's salary for the rest of the year if a team is willing to deal them prospects.

I dont know how he fits on the Cardinals but with the year Beltran is having he is going to be a difference maker to the right team.

I don't know if he's a centerfielder anymore, though. Did the Mets move him because they absolutely had to make room for Angel Pagan, or did they move him because his defensive skills are diminished? If he can't play center, he's of no use to the Cardinals.

I guess in theroy if he couldnt play center you could move Berkman to first and Pujols to thrid.  If the trade didnt involve Rasmus he could remain in center.  Basicly Beltran would replace Freese.  I doubt the Cardinals are in play for Beltran but if they offered Jay and committed to paying Beltran (something the Mets are concidering doing) they could have a shot. 

Theriot
Rasmus
Pujols
Holliday
Berkman
Beltran
Molina
Craig/Skip/Descalso
Pitcher

Max wrote:

Three words: Tony La Russa.

Why do you think LaRussa would want Wilson?  Or let me ask it differently, acquiring Wilson means that either Theriot or Schumaker head to the bench.  Both of these players have an excess of Larussa-bucks banked.  Do you believe that Larussa would sit either Theriot or Schu for Wilson?

Ugh.  I just looked at his numbers.  .228/.254/.252.  I'd say Wilson is more likely to be DFA'd than traded for anything of remote value.

Last edited by forsberg_us (7/19/2011 3:47 pm)

forsberg_us wrote:

Max wrote:

Three words: Tony La Russa.

Why do you think LaRussa would want Wilson?  Or let me ask it differently, acquiring Wilson means that either Theriot or Schumaker head to the bench.  Both of these players have an excess of Larussa-bucks banked.  Do you believe that Larussa would sit either Theriot or Schu for Wilson?

Ugh.  I just looked at his numbers.  .228/.254/.252.  I'd say Wilson is more likely to be DFA'd than traded for anything of remote value.

Yeah, he's playing horribly, but so was Tejada when they were talking about acquiring him to help shore up the left side of the infield.  Also, you go back to 2007 and Wilson looked like a bona fide offensive threat and people around here were wondering if he might be a good fit with the Cards, and it just seems to me La Russa retains his interest in a veteran player a few years longer than the guy's numbers justify it.  I also think that Wilson would be available, and is one of the few places where Seattle might be able to unload any sizable chunk of their payroll.  But yeah, it requires that a team still any value in the guy . . . but that said, if there was a team that might have interest in him, La Russa's Cardinals could well be on that list.  How many teams thought Randy Winn had any value last year when he was batting .213 .300 .295 . . . as an outfielder?!?

Max wrote:

How many teams thought Randy Winn had any value last year when he was batting .213 .300 .295 . . . as an outfielder?!?

We didn't trade for Randy Winn.

Max wrote:

My feeling is that they do not need to unload payroll obligations, and see the their needs as including one or more bona fide powerhitters, such that they wouldn't part with anything of value, such as Vargas or Pineda, unless it included one, and ideally one that they could control or otherwise sign and retain.

Seattle has a difficult time attracting power hitters (much like SF) because the ballpark is death valley.  They've had to overpay all of the recent free agent players they've signed.

forsberg_us wrote:

Max wrote:

How many teams thought Randy Winn had any value last year when he was batting .213 .300 .295 . . . as an outfielder?!?

We didn't trade for Randy Winn.

That's true, but I am not saying that I expect we trade for Wilson so much as he gets tossed into the deal, if we make one with the Mariners.