forsberg_us wrote:

C'mon Artie, there you go using facts to dispel perception. Don't you know that a small sample size is much more important than the last 2 years.

I can't believe we're having this discussion again. I'm going to have to stop participating or I'm going to start thinking negative thoughts about Jay the same way I was starting to have negative thoughts about Edmonds when Rocket was writing his love poems on the old Yahoo board.

artie_fufkin wrote:

"what has been lost here is that it is arguable that Rasmus does NOTHING better than Jay, I don't hear anybody really contesting that."

Come on, Max. Rasmus has far more power than Jay.

Not right now, he does not.

Jay: .439 SLG
Rasmus: .421

Look it up yourself.  Jay equals or exceeds Rasmus in just about every commonly measured offensive stats, assuming you normalize the counting stats for ABs.

So if we are talking about Rasmus's potential, OK.  But his on-field performance this season trails that of jay in almost every way you can measure it, except for his time spent on it, which is beyond his control.

And the point of all of this is to say that with Rasmus we have a guy who plays a little bit less well than Jon Jay, but is considered untouchable because of his potential upside.  I'm just saying maybe it's time Rasmus is treated more or less like everyone else in his class, and not like the true all-stars and gold gloves on the team.

forsberg_us wrote:

C'mon Artie, there you go using facts to dispel perception. Don't you know that a small sample size is much more important than the last 2 years.

Which fact(s) are you referring to, Fors?  The assertion that Jay will never be a 20 homer guy, or was there another "fact" that I missed?

artie_fufkin wrote:

I can't believe we're having this discussion again.

which discussion, artie?  that rasmus is an over-rated prima donna?  or the effect of small sample sizes on interpretation.

this is a funny group.  there's a thread here with a string of posts like: pujols is done, he'll never be the same player, his best days are clearly behind him . . . without much of a peep.  then i have the temerity to state my opinion that rasmus is an over-rated prima donna, and a firestorm erupts.

it reminds me of this comedian i heard once who, after doing a string of jokes about the president, tried to do one about Fotomat, and someone in the audience piped up a complaint.  but this comedian was very good on his feet ( he was a writer for Letterman, I think) and he noted the irony that a comedian could say anything at all about the president, but try making a joke about fotomat and the hecklers come out.

to me rasmus is fotomat, a very little store in a highly conspicuous position.  i don't understand why cards fans can pile on pujols, and then get all huffy because someone cracks a rasmus joke.

Last edited by Max (6/28/2011 12:40 am)

artie_fufkin wrote:

"And I hope I am wrong about this, but it appears that Drew is the more talented of the two."

Of course Drew is a more talented player. He's one of the most talented players of his generation. Which makes his indifference even more frustrating. And there's no comparison with durability. Rasmus' season high in games played in two years is already higher than Drew's.

I think I was the first to make the Drew comparison.  I dont think it is a bad one.  The players could be headed down the same road and it isnt really a bad one.   Unless Rasmus becomes much more productive or becomes a leader I expect him to be traded once he gets closer to becoming a FA.  If the Cardinals can get the kind of talent they got for Drew it will be a great thing.  I think at that point most Cardinals fans will look backon Rasmus time with the Cardinals as a disappointment.

artie_fufkin wrote:

"Look it up yourself.  Jay equals or exceeds Rasmus in just about every commonly measured offensive stats."

Really? Rasmus hit 23 home runs last year. When has Jay hit 23 homers in a season? At any level?

THIS season.

That's my point, right here, right now, Rasmus is playing measurably worse than Jon Jay.  Sure that could change by the end of the year.  But as of this moment, total up the season stats, and Rasmus is worse than Jay in almost every way that players are measured.

artie_fufkin wrote:

"THIS season."

OK, this season.
Rasmus has more home runs, RBI, hits, runs, doubles, triples and walks, and as many stolen bases.
But other than that, Jay exceeds Rasmus in every measurable offensive category.

normalized for AB's, yes, exactly: Rasmus is worse in every way.  At last we are on the same page.



artie_fufkin wrote:

"what has been lost here is that it is arguable that Rasmus does NOTHING better than Jay, I don't hear anybody really contesting that."

Come on, Max. Rasmus has far more power than Jay.
Not right now, he does not.

Jay: .439 SLG
Rasmus: .421

Look it up yourself.  Jay equals or exceeds Rasmus in just about every commonly measured offensive stats, assuming you normalize the counting stats for ABs.

So if we are talking about Rasmus's potential, OK.  But his on-field performance this season trails that of jay in almost every way you can measure it, except for his time spent on it, which is beyond his control.

And the point of all of this is to say that with Rasmus we have a guy who plays a little bit less well than Jon Jay, but is considered untouchable because of his potential upside.  I'm just saying maybe it's time Rasmus is treated more or less like everyone else in his class, and not like the true all-stars and gold gloves on the team.

Last edited by Max (6/28/2011 8:36 am)

artie_fufkin wrote:

"normalized for AB's, yes, exactly:"

You can't "normalize" baseball statistics the way you want to, Max. Jay doesn't play against left-handed pitchers. Or he doesn't play as much as Rasmus does. Because Jay's OPS against lefties is 200 points less than it is against righties. Rasmus's spilts are about even. What would happen to Jay's numbers if he had to face the Ricky Romeros of the world, as Rasmus did on Sunday?
And why do you think LaRussa sits Jay and plays Rasmus against the Ricky Romeros of the world? Maybe because he, like the rest of the entire baseball world, thinks Rasmus is a better player than Jay? Or are you right and LaRussa is wrong?

Rec!

I basicly posted the sameting and then say you beat me to it.

APRTW wrote:

artie_fufkin wrote:

"normalized for AB's, yes, exactly:"

You can't "normalize" baseball statistics the way you want to, Max. Jay doesn't play against left-handed pitchers. Or he doesn't play as much as Rasmus does. Because Jay's OPS against lefties is 200 points less than it is against righties. Rasmus's spilts are about even. What would happen to Jay's numbers if he had to face the Ricky Romeros of the world, as Rasmus did on Sunday?
And why do you think LaRussa sits Jay and plays Rasmus against the Ricky Romeros of the world? Maybe because he, like the rest of the entire baseball world, thinks Rasmus is a better player than Jay? Or are you right and LaRussa is wrong?

Rec!

I basicly posted the sameting and then say you beat me to it.

Statistically, baseball isn't genetics, and the sabre geeks never get that part. You can't just say: "Well, player A had 15 homers in 250 at bats, so if you played him full-time and he gets 500 at bats, he's a 30-homer guy."
Carl Yastrzemski was a first ballot Hall of Famer, and I think he was the only guy other than Stan and Hank Aaron to have 3,000 hits and 400 homers when he did it. But if you ever saw Yaz try to hit against Tommy John, there's no way you'd ever think he ever played American Legion ball.
My point is there are variables in baseball. LaRussa is smart enough to recognize that at this point in Jay's career, he's is going to struggle against left-handed pitching. So he picks spots where he thinks Jay is going to succeed.
Rasmus has earned the right to play more against left-handed pitching. Read into that what you will.

Rec

Everyone uses stats to suit their argument, and yet all of the stats in the world can't predict with certainty that the sun will rise in the east tomorrow.  Same as it ever was.

Do I think Rasmus has a higher ceiling than Jay?  Of course I do.  Do I think the dispute between Rasmus and La Russa began with La Russa threatening to trade Rasmus?  Of course I do NOT.  Surely there is more history there, and in a game of he said she said, the HOF-bound manager can pull rank on the minor leaguer / rookie /second year player, and I am confident that La Russa was being tweaked by the Rasmus camp going back to his minor league days.  That there even was a Rasmus camp probably tweaked La Russa.

Has Rasmus been over-rated by the Cards?  Yes.  I stand by that.  At the very minimum has defense and arm strength and accuracy have all been surprisingly poor. 

Has Rasmus behaved like a prima donna?  Yes.  I stand by that. I don't give a shit how good your spring training was, the GM makes the call and the have-nots play minor league ball with a smile on their face. 

On the other hand, did Edmonds have issues in Anaheim, and then mature into a stand out star for the Cards?  Yes, but that doesn't mean he ever would have done it in Anaheim.  Likewise, Drew got traded because of the perception that his heart was more in the business side of the game than in the game itself.  Did he mature into a wiser player in Atlanta?  No!  LA? No!  Boston?  No!

The facts are that we don't know what will happen with Rasmus.  We hope he turns into a big star.  I just don't think he deserves much in the way of special consideration.  Trade his ass out of town if we can get something better for him.

"I don't give a shit how good your spring training was, the GM makes the call and the have-nots play minor league ball with a smile on their face."

Right.  So if the Cardinals had opted to go with McClellan or Rich Hill as their 5th starter last season, your response to Garcia would have been "too fucking bad, now smile while you board the bus to Memphis."


"Has Rasmus behaved like a prima donna?  Yes.  I stand by that."

I must have missed it--did he request a farewell game where everyone wore a mullet and whine that the team hadn't placed a statue of him outside of Busch?