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The wunderkind is headed for Chicago. I am of two minds about this.
First, Epstein was pretty overrated when it came to free agent signings/trades. And anyone can throw a lot of money at high-priced free agents.
What we should be concerned about as Cardinals fans is that he's able to replicate the model they had in place with player development. The Red Sox have consistently had the best farm system and they've been able to churn out a lot of good players, or turned them into Alex Gonzalez.
From what I understand, there's a very detailed, very organized player development structure that he implemented. And I don't think the Cardinals are very good in this aspect.
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No wonder Epstein wanted out:
•Team sources claim that Terry Francona’s marital problems and use of pain medication affected his performance; Francona vehemently denied it. Sources also say that Francona increasingly took on the role of a lame duck manager with his effectiveness at reaching his players reduced as his suspicion that the team would not exercise his 2012 option grew;
•There was acrimony and resentment on the part of the players surrounding the scheduling of a double header against the A’s in August due to Hurricane Irene;
•Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and John Lackey not only drank beer, but played video games and ate takeout chicken and biscuits in the clubhouse during games and cut back on their exercise regimes against the advice and wishes of team trainers;
•Kevin Youkilis became increasingly frustrated and detached as he battled injuries, and his public spat with Jacoby Ellsbury last year had the effect of Ellbury withdrawing from interaction with most of his teammates this year;
•Adrian Gonzalez hit the ball, but “he provided none of the energy or passion off the field that the Sox sorely needed.†David Ortiz was a clubhouse disruption too; and
•Theo Epstein, you may have heard, signed Carl Crawford and Bobby Jenks and those guys kind of stunk.
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"Theo Epstein, you may have heard, signed Carl Crawford and Bobby Jenks and those guys kind of stunk."
And Lackey, and Julio Lugo, and J.D. Drew, and he traded David Murphy for Eric Gagne and dealt Bronson Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena.
If the Ricketts have an unlimited supply of cash they're willing to let Theo play with and short memories, then Theo is their man.
Good luck trying to dump Alfonso Soriano, Theo.
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This doesnt worry me much. I dont see the Cubs as being able to spend their way out of the dumps. They have already tried that. Signing Pujols would be a splashy Theo type move though.
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APRTW wrote:
Signing Pujols would be a splashy Theo type move though.
That was my immediate concern too.
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It would be his MO, but unless they arm themselves with better pitching, Pujols won't do a damn thing for the 2012 Cubs.
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tkihshbt wrote:
It would be his MO, but unless they arm themselves with better pitching, Pujols won't do a damn thing for the 2012 Cubs.
I agree that the 30 millions they would spend on Pujols would be better off being spent on pitching. That scares me because it is very Cub like to overspend on a secondary need.
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I'm starting to come around a bit and think that Pujols will resign with the Cards as long as he is offered the years he wants. Maybe the money really doesn't matter. Thus, the Cards have put all the pieces of the puzzle together for NEXT year, signing Berkman, Carp, Garcia, etc., and Pujols should feel comfortable that DeWitt is more or less 'all in' and will field competitive teams for the remainder of Pujols's contract.
So, bottom line, I don't think it matters much what the Cubs offer, even $300/10. Pujols stays a Cardinal.
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I dont see TLR or Pujols leaving if the Cardinals win this series.
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A mildly interesting read in kind of a Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur's Court way, with the requisite Christmas wish list and references to "we" like they're on the team from CubFan:
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Am I a bad person because I want Theo to fail miserably?
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artie_fufkin wrote:
Am I a bad person because I want Theo to fail miserably?
Did Stalin introspect if he was a bad guy because he wanted Disneyland to fail miserably? (grin)
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Max wrote:
artie_fufkin wrote:
Am I a bad person because I want Theo to fail miserably?
Did Stalin introspect if he was a bad guy because he wanted Disneyland to fail miserably? (grin)
See, now I would have thought Stalin would have enjoyed the "It's a Small World" ride. You just can't get that song out of your head.
I don't know how much play this has gotten elsewhere, but it was also announced yesterday one of Theo's big free agents signing needs Tommy John surgery. If I had been the Red Sox, the only way I would have allowed Epstein to leave is if he took Lackey with him.
Last edited by artie_fufkin (10/26/2011 8:55 am)
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As hilariously bad some of Epstein's free agent signings were, I can't really fault him for Lackey. He was a very good pitcher in Los Angeles and though he wasn't worth $17 million, that's a pittance for the Red Sox.
I think the Cubs are going to go to the playoffs a lot under Epstein. It won't happen in 2012 unless they pay for every free agent under the sun, but I fear that it's going to happen as soon as 2013-2014.
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With an unlimited payroll in Boston, he couldn't get the Red Sox to the playoffs in either of the last two seasons, but we're supposed to believe that Epstein will lead an almost instant turn-around for the Cubs?
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Depending on what the free agent market looks like, sure. Despite the Red Sox missing the playoffs this year, they were still on pace to win 100 games as late as August. And since 2008, the fourth place team in the AL East is averaging something like 84 wins. That's good enough to compete in most divisions.
I'm really not worried about Chicago's $130 million payroll as I am the Cubs setting up a good farm system that can churn out the propsects to go get an Adrian Gonzalez or a Josh Beckett. Drafting and developing is what the Red Sox do better than anyone besides the Rays, plus Epstein gets to take Jason McLeod (scouting director since 2005).
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"As hilariously bad some of Epstein's free agent signings were, I can't really fault him for Lackey."
I don't know who else you blame. His numbers trended downward in his last two seasons in Anaheim, and he's gotten worse since he's been in Boston. And the physical he had before he signed with the Red Sox showed he had elbow issues, yet Theo went ahead and threw a huge pile of dough at him.
Theo's value, as you pointed out, is structuring a system that identifies and develops prospects.
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Save for a couple of injuries in 2008 and 2009, it looks like he was the same pitcher he was from 2005-2007. And not having seen Lackey enough, he appears to be similar to our own Kyle Lohse. It's not a perfect comparison, but they both throw in the low 90s, don't get a lot of ground balls and count on fly balls staying in the park. The difference is that Lackey's had a better curve/slider than Lohse.
Has anyone bothered to point out that Epstein is not going to be the Cubs GM? This appears to be getting lost somewhere, since it appears Jed Hoyer will come over from San Diego and be the GM while Epstein gets some fancy executive title.
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"Epstein gets some fancy executive title."
I suspect that's because of MLB's rule that you can't make a lateral move to another team while you're still under contract to your original team, but you can move if it's a promotion.
From 2003-07, Lackey made 33 starts every year. His ERA and WHIP mostly trended downward. Wins fluctuated, but as Max has pointed out, winning is irrelevant in baseball.
Lackey was 19-9/3.01/1.210 in 2007. Career bests in wins, ERA, WHIP and IP.
In 2008, in 24 starts, he was 12-5/3.75/1.231
In 2009, in 27 starts, he was 11-8/3.83/1.270
One could make an argument the numbers are roughly consistent, but if you're Theo, should you be throwing $82 million over 5 years to a guy who is getting better, or to a guy who is trending in the other direction, especially if he doesn't pass your physical?
Last edited by artie_fufkin (10/26/2011 1:07 pm)
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Never mind. I went back and looked and I wasn't paying close enough attention when Lackey signed his deal. Apparently there were red flags all over the place about his elbow problems. That definitely makes the contract "hilariously bad."
I can only hope Theo brings his special brand of signing shitty free agents to Chicago.
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tkihshbt wrote:
Depending on what the free agent market looks like, sure. Despite the Red Sox missing the playoffs this year, they were still on pace to win 100 games as late as August. And since 2008, the fourth place team in the AL East is averaging something like 84 wins. That's good enough to compete in most divisions.
I'm really not worried about Chicago's $130 million payroll as I am the Cubs setting up a good farm system that can churn out the propsects to go get an Adrian Gonzalez or a Josh Beckett. Drafting and developing is what the Red Sox do better than anyone besides the Rays, plus Epstein gets to take Jason McLeod (scouting director since 2005).
I can't say that I follow minor league baseball as closely as you probably do, especially with respect to other organizations, but who have the Red Sox produced of any note in the last 4-5 years?
None of the players in the Beckett deal came to the Red Sox via Epstein. All were in the system before he arrived. I can't honestly say that I know how good the prospects in the Gonzalez deal were, but wasn't the market for Gonzalez limited to teams who had a willingness to sign Gonzalez? If so, how many teams were in the running?
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Casey Kelly and Anthony Rizzo were the #31 and #75 prospects pre-2011.
But in the last few years they've put out Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester, Buchholz, Masterson and Papelbon.
None of the players in the Beckett deal came to the Red Sox via Epstein. All were in the system before he arrived.
Correct. I just threw that out there to show what they could do with a deep bench of prospects.
I hope like hell I'm wrong and the Boston trio turn out to be overrated, but my gut feeling is that the Cubs nabbed themselves quite the front office. If they are as good as I think they are at drafting and developing, I think Luhnow has to keep getting better. They have a lot of exciting guys, but they need more.
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"in the last few years they've put out Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester, Buchholz, Masterson and Papelbon."
You could probably throw Bard onto that list. And I think he picked David Murphy and Matt Murton. Murton hasn't had much of a major league career, but he was part of the trade(s) that helped get them a WS title in '04.
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Lester was drafted by Theo's predecessor. I knew about Pedroia, Ellsbury, Buchholz and Papelbon, but all were drafted in 2005 or earlier. I was curious what success they've had recently.
Maybe I just don't appreciate the role someone like Theo or a GM has in "developing" a player. You mention Luhnow. What role does he (or Mozeliak for that matter) have in a player's development? I realize the GM decides when the advance a player to another level, but other than that, what else does the GM or player personnel guy really do? Doesn't the development depend a lot more on the coaches and instructors within the organization than the GM?
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forsberg_us wrote:
I realize the GM decides when the advance a player to another level, but other than that, what else does the GM or player personnel guy really do? Doesn't the development depend a lot more on the coaches and instructors within the organization than the GM?
Well, my best guess is that the GM/Scouting Director hire the best scouts possible and they find the talent. It would also be their job to put in place a system that develops those players. It seems like they do pretty good at this.