forsberg_us wrote:

That's what I remember.  Of course there were a few Bud Lights mixed in there, so I may have missed a fact or 2.

5-stars, as always.  Well done.  Assuming the inside info on Ryan is accurate, then what your friend is telling you matches my own assessment just about perfectly.  It is very, very satisfying to read.

Most importantly, I think, is the report that DeWitt hired a service (i.e, spent "our" money) in an effort to treat the Pujols's signing as pure capitalism: which costs us more?  I do not claim to know much about baseball, not nearly so much as I claim, rightly or wrongly, to be a student of human behavior: everything I read indicates that DeWitt is playing a brutal game of brinkmanship with Pujols, and the problem with that, . . . well, one of the problems with that, is that it runs the risk that DeWitt could win a Pyrrhic victory, for example, resigning Pujols, but leaving our superstar so embittered by the process that it affects him and the team.  Likewise, his market research team might calculate that it is more profitable to let Pujols walk without factoring in the collateral damage to the organization that such an action would have, and we might wind up with a wounded, dysfunctional organization either way.  What became of the day when Matt Morris could show up without his agent and sign a win-win contract extension???

In any event, if I appear to be mad, there is a method to my madness, and it is that in the current baseball market, there are few things to check an overly parsimonious owner other than fans who complain loudly. Players cannot do it because it reflects badly on them and fans withdraw their support from players who behave that way.  In this market, Pujols, LaRussa, and the team can do no wrong until DeWitt does the right thing and ponies up.

Last edited by Max (10/06/2010 5:15 pm)

tkihshbt wrote:

Was Luhnow's demotion a result of his schtupping Jaime Garcia's girlfriend?

christ.  did that really happen?!?

if it did then one or the other MUST go.

forsberg_us wrote:

For what it's worth, Strauss has been tweeting that he has information regarding a "high impact trade" involving the Cardinals.  He won't reveal any names.  He's pimping his online chat this afternoon, so presumably he'll ID people then.

So what was the breaking news?  I read his chat and found nothing...

So the big news is that team are interested in Rasmus.  I have been as hard as anyone on Rasmus but if he is willing to keep his mouth shut there is no way he can be traded.  The offer would have to be really sweet.

forsberg_us wrote:

With regard to Larussa, I was told that  it's about 50-50, but that this is the closest LaRussa has ever been to actually leaving.  My buddy thinks LaRussa will return, but it also wouldn't surprise him if he doesn't come back.  He said there were discussions of what might happen with respect to the other coaches if LaRussa decided to hang em up.  Depending on who was named manager, Duncan could come back as pitching coach, which would be good for my friend.

TLR signed a two year deal and Duncan 3, I believe.

Turning to Pujols, this situation is also far from a certainty.  If he had to guess, my friend thinks they get him signed.  But he also tells me that DeWitt and his minions have hired a PR firm to provide estimates as to the approximate number of fans they would lose during the upcoming seasons if they were to trade Pujols or let him walk.  According to the model they use, every 100K fans represents $5M in revenue (tickets, concessions, souveneirs, etc...).  Apparently, the initial estimates have been anywhere from 400K to 800K fans, so that's anywhere from $20-40M in lost revenue.  In that sense, Pujols pays for himself if the number exceeds about 550K.

Assuming a deal gets done, the belief is that Pujols is only looking for 5 years, not 7 or 8.  Apparently Pujols frequently comments how he admired McGwire's decision to walk away mid-contract because his skills had deteriorated.  As you might imagine, Pujols is pretty vain, and doesn't seem to be the kind of guy who would accept playing at a level below what he considers acceptable.  Given the physical ailments he's already going through, 5 years might be close to when Pujols is ready to retire.

That turned out to be untrue as Pujols is looking for a record deal

In short, the failure of 2010 was, in large part, the result of the front office over-valuing the quality of the talent coming from Memphis and its mistaken assumption that Freese would return, along with an unwillingness to increase payroll at the trade deadline.  (Max, feel free to have a field day with this).

I believe the payroll is around 110million right now.  Likely no more moves will be made before the start of the season or to much of an increase at the deadline.  So basicly they are in the same boat as last year.  The team to goes north is the team you are going to see all year. 

Moving to 2011, and assuming Pujols returns, the team clearly needs help.  Starting with the offense, if Pujols is back, the C, 1B, LF and CF spots are done.  Despite the reports, regardless of what LaRussa decides, Rasmus is the CF next season.  I was told that Rasmus is actually making efforts to improve and that Holliday has gone significantly out of his way to befriend Colby and to try to teach him how to be a professional.  Setting aside the skills and the fact that he's cheap, they do believe that he's making progress--especially since the situation became public knowledge.

I was told that Craig has the best chance to win the RF spot, if it is filled from within.  They like Jay, but he isn't a run producer.  The coaching staff isn't real fond of Craig's swing, but they do believe he has some intangible qualities that are inherent in players who drive in runs.  In his recent interview, Mozeliak mentioned adding 2 guys who could hit 15-20 HR.  They think Craig could be one of those guys.  Also, he apparently won over some of the coaches by the way he handled being shuffled back and forth between St. Louis and Memphis.  Sometimes it pays to keep your mouth shut, and it sounds like that's exactly what Craig did.

Craig isnt going to get RF but he will likely see alot of at bats being the best pinch hitter, fill in outfiealder and third baseman

At 3B, expect Freese to be given the first opportunity to start, but the coaching staff wants a legitimate fall back plan in place (i.e., not a middle infielder).

No legitimate help at third.  It is Freese and pray

Not surprisingly, middle infield is the biggest area of concern.  During the meeting on Monday, LaRussa apparently told DeWitt and Moz that they need new players at both positions.  Dan Uggla's name has apparently been mentioned as a possible trade target.  Alex Gonzalez is another possibility, but they think Atlanta will pick up his option.  Kelly Johnson and Steven Drew were also names being floated around.  Put simply, they don't want Skip's combination of poor defense and lack-luster offense at 2B.  They're obviously willing to put up with poor defense if it comes with considerable offense (i.e., Uggla), but Skip doesn't offer what they need.  Descalso could be an option, but they think he's a "tweener."  His defense is better at 3B, but his bat is more suited for 2B.  He could make the team as an extra infielder, but probably not as a starter.

SS was the position about which my friend was most insistant.  Ryan must go--plain and simple.  Apparently, Ryan's personality is such that it fosters a divide between the younger players and the veterans.  In fact, I was told that the coaching staff believes that Ryan is much to blame for Rasmus' situation.  Rasmus is impressionable, and apparently Ryan is one of those guys who walks around the clubhouse telling the younger players "Fuck those veterans.  You got to the big leagues without them.  You don't need to listen to anything they tell you."  They want Ryan out of the system as fast as is humanly possible.

The did ditch Ryan in a hurry and got very little in return.  Not that he was worth much.  Theriot is the man now.  That is a far cry from Gonzalez but I assume Berkman bat is supposed to fill the need of added power bat.  For whatever reason Skip is still the only option at second.  I believe Orlando Cabera had to settle for a minor league deal.  If the Cardinals were serious about upgrading over Skip I would think he would have been worth a minor league deal.

We didn't get much into the specifics of the pitching staff.  They would like to bring in 1 starter, at least 1 veteran reliever and would like a real closer.  But that's much more of a wish list than it is reality.

The got Westbrook and that was it.  Westbrook is a pretty good addition as starter.  Beats the hell out of Cement-head/ Matt Clement