artie_fufkin wrote:

"Scrabble"

It took me awhile, but I got it.

I prefer HWNCBP.

He was in mind when I was putting it together. Five spots are nailed down, which means they have room for another lefty or Sanchez/Lynn. Or they could drop Boggs and go with Lynn, or put McClellan back into the rotation and go with Lynn. Or Lynn could start. They have a lot of flexibility in that area.

This might be out of left field, but I wonder what they'll do with Motte. He's arbitration eligible for the first time and hasn't allowed an earned run since June 23. He's having one hell of a season and I'm not sure if anyone has particularly noticed. He could very well be a "sell high" candidate.

SS Furcal
CF Jay
1B Pujols
LF Holliday
2B Craig
RF Freese
C Molina
2B Descalso

C Cruz
BN Punto
BN
BN

Wainwright
Carp
Garcia
Westbrook
Loshe

Salas
Sanchez
Lynn
Boggs
Motte
Rzepczynski
McCellan


If you figure $45 million to spend here is how I would do.

Pujols- 25 million (25million 5 years)
Furcal - 6 million (1 year)
Punto - .750 million (1 Year)
Carp- 10 million (rework his deal, 20 million 2 years)

That helps a lot w/r/t to Scrabble. An extra million or so they can use to sign Pujols or Berkman.

He Whose Name Cannot Be Pronounced.

"He'll never sign for that. He would have at one time, but not after Howard signed for it, and certainly not after he had to hit Free Agency to get a new deal. You might get him to bite for a 10 yr 250 million deal, but that's basically saying you're burning 50-75 million, as he won't be Albert Pujols for years 10, 9 and possibly 8.

"Still, if you have to spend 240 million to lock him down for 8 years, why not throw in another 10 million, and get him for 2 more years?"

I think they offer him around what AP suggests, and then let him walk when he turns it down. He's not going to get a 10-year contract from the Cardinals. The Cardinals know they're going to take a huge p.r. hit, so they have to make a big splash in free agency. Say they re-sign Berkman, Furcal and Jackson (who of course just loves it in Baseball Heaven) then land Heath Bell and spin it as "We're better off than if we had committed a huge chunk of our payroll to one player."
Pujols ends up signing an 8-year, $240 million deal with a high-profile team, wreaks his usual .300/30/100 havoc for the next two years, and Cardinal Nation groans when he hits his 500th home run as a very viable MVP candidate. Then settles into a .275/25/80 player for another four, collects his 3,000th hit, at which point we call say "Yeah, it's too bad he couldn't have done it in a Cardinals' uniform, but it's a good thing Moz didn't give away the store in 2011." In year seven of his contract, he's traded to an American League contender for one last chance at another ring, but he falls short. In the last year of his contract, he's traded back to the Cardinals (with the other team picking up a huge chunk of his salary) to finish out his career where it started, so he can take nightly bows as a part-time player and pinch-hitter.

artie_fufkin wrote:

The Cardinals know they're going to take a huge p.r. hit.

If it plays out like that, I will maintain a suspicion of doubt for life that firing Jocketty and hiring Moz was DeWitt thinking 12 chess moves down the road as a way to win the war of will not to mortgage the franchise to make Pujols a Cardinal for life.

tkihshbt wrote:

Yeah, that's pretty much where I see this headed, although I'll pass on Jackson and Bell. Give me Carpenter, Berkman, Furcal and the guys they got now in the bullpen. That's probably an 86-win team on paper, assuming regression. And it might be good enough to win the division, but they have to add some firepower in the outfield .

The trading of Rasmus pretty much locked Jay's spot in center on the 2012 Cardinals.  The FA market is not strong for center fielders.  If they resign Berkman I am not sure how they could add fire power.  Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Ryan Ludwick and Josh Willingham pretty much highlight the FA outfielders not named Beltran.

So the Cards get comped draft picks for Jackson, Carp, Pujols, Berkman, Furcal and Dotel if they allow them to leave?

If the Cardinals did nothing and just sank that would be a pretty awesome, draft would it not?  3 first round picks and 3 sandwich picks (inbetween first and second, Correct?).  Then whatever Jackson brings.  If they get the right guys the Cardinals could have the best farm system over night.

tkihshbt wrote:

Probably. It would depend on how much money they are willing to spend. If you have a bunch of first/supplemental/second round picks you have to reach for some signability guys, otherwise a team will wind up spending $20 million on their draft.

It also depends on the draft itself, some years are richer and deeper than others.  I haven't followed drafts for decades, and then only NFL and NBA, and my recollection is that an ordinary draft has only 1-3 game changer, future of the franchise, players, and lower down in the first round you're talking about getting guys who have a better chance of being solid players than, say, guys selected lower in the draft.  My point being that 3 picks low in the draft can have less effect than having the first pick overall.

A related issue I recall from the NBA and NFL, is that teams often traded their first round picks to get established players.  Not sure how it works in baseball, but I could see La Russa arguing to convert draft picks into proven commodities if the opportunity presented itself.

Not only can't you trade draft picks, but the player(s) drafted cannot be traded for at least a year.

Bsaeball is probably the one sport where the draft doesn't necessarily proceed in terms of talent.  It's quite common for teams to pass on more talented players for players that can be easily signed.  As Tk said, however, if you draft the more talented guy later in the draft, you have to be willing to pay the cost of signing him.