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- Édgar Rentería
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- Registered: 9/11/2010
- Posts: 4,299
Re: GC FOR 9/11
6-2 thru top of 7 . Hang on Birds
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Thread Starter- APIAD
- Administrator
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- From: Central IL
- Registered: 9/07/2010
- Posts: 11,096
Re: GC FOR 9/11
How important are those games that this team needlessly threw away over the last month now?
- tkihshbt
- Scott Rolen
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- Registered: 9/07/2010
- Posts: 7,244
Re: GC FOR 9/11
Much like last season's stretch where they went 3-12 against the Cubs, Astros, Nationals and Pirates after sweeping the Reds, we'll similarly look back on this year when they went 2-7 against the Pirates, Cubs and Dodgers and dropped two of three at home to Cincinnati after sweeping the Brewers. On balance, the season has been one giant missed opportunity, but those are the games they had to have.
If they had taken one more against Cincy last weekend, they're 3.5 out right now.
- alz
- Larry Walker
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- Registered: 9/23/2010
- Posts: 2,396
Re: GC FOR 9/11
not to beat a dead horse.... Well okay to beat the absolute shit out of a dead horse.
BLOWN SAVES
St. Louis Cardinals: 23 (T-2nd)
Atlanta Braves 22 (Tied 7th)
Milwaukee Brewers 19 (13th)
Arizona Diamondbacks 13 (T-24th)
Philadelphia Phillies 8 (30th)
If we come to this point with the league avg number of 16 or 17 BS's, we're winning our division by a half game, and the wildcard by 1.5.
The killers for us in this?
Player SV/BS
Franklin 1/4
Boggs 4/4
Miller 1/2
McClelan 0/1
Batista 0/1
Lynn 1/1
The rest.
Motte 5/3
Sanchez 5/2
Salas 23/5
That's just too much bullshit from the closer position. It will probably kill our season.
- APIAD
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- From: Central IL
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- Posts: 11,096
Re: GC FOR 9/11
I dont know if this stat can be found but it would be interesting to see the chances for saves. I would think that would be more important. The less times games are being decided in the 9th inning the better.
- tkihshbt
- Scott Rolen
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- Registered: 9/07/2010
- Posts: 7,244
Re: GC FOR 9/11
Saves also count as being blown in the eighth inning, so that stat would need to be explored a little more. It is true that the bullpen has been rough this year. I think the Cardinals have lost about about five or six games in the ninth inning alone.
- alz
- Larry Walker
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- Registered: 9/23/2010
- Posts: 2,396
Re: GC FOR 9/11
Yeah, sadly I didn't have a lot of time to dig into boxscores, but was left at the mercy of Yahoo's Team Stats.
It's actually gotten better too, we used to be #1 in Blown Saves running away.
- Max
- Colby Rasmus
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- From: Pacific Northwest
- Registered: 9/07/2010
- Posts: 5,269
Re: GC FOR 9/11
alz wrote:
not to beat a dead horse.... Well okay to beat the absolute shit out of a dead horse.
BLOWN SAVES
St. Louis Cardinals: 23 (T-2nd)
Atlanta Braves 22 (Tied 7th)
Milwaukee Brewers 19 (13th)
Arizona Diamondbacks 13 (T-24th)
Philadelphia Phillies 8 (30th)
If we come to this point with the league avg number of 16 or 17 BS's, we're winning our division by a half game, and the wildcard by 1.5.
The killers for us in this?
Player SV/BS
Franklin 1/4
Boggs 4/4
Miller 1/2
McClelan 0/1
Batista 0/1
Lynn 1/1
The rest.
Motte 5/3
Sanchez 5/2
Salas 23/5
That's just too much bullshit from the closer position. It will probably kill our season.
the problem with this analysis, IMO, is that we were in first place on about July 26(?) and a huge chunk of the bullpen and blown saves were before that. So, to me, the better analyses are those that look at what went wrong after our last run at the top. In that case, this year like last, there was a run of crappy performances against crappy teams in August. You could make the case that if we had fixed the bullpen in May we would have run away with this by July, but managers don't seem to manage their teams that way, IMO.
And if we wanted to look another way, can we calculate how many runs we are expected to have lost because of our league leading DPs?
- forsberg_us
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- Registered: 9/08/2010
- Posts: 9,944
Re: GC FOR 9/11
"So, to me, the better analyses are those that look at what went wrong after our last run at the top. In that case, this year like last, there was a run of crappy performances against crappy teams in August."
It's a bit of an over-simplification to compare 2011 and 2010. In 2010, the team was last alone in first on August 13 and then went 16-27 over its next 43 games.
In 2011, the team was last in first on July 26. Since then it has gone 24-19, but has lost 6.5 games in the standings.
This year's "collapse" has a lot more to do with the Brewers going 31-13 since July 26 (including a 23-3 run from July 27 though August 22) than it does anything the Cardinals did or didn't do. The Cardinals' winning percentage is actually nominally higher now than it was on July 26.
- Max
- Colby Rasmus
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- Registered: 9/07/2010
- Posts: 5,269
Re: GC FOR 9/11
This year's "collapse" has a lot more to do with the Brewers going 31-13 since July 26 (including a 23-3 run from July 27 though August 22) than it does anything the Cardinals did or didn't do. The Cardinals' winning percentage is actually nominally higher now than it was on July 26.
good point.