Furcal and Holliday depend upon their health. Otherwise, Tone doesn't have a lot of discretion.

Strauss:

HOUSTON • The Cardinals entered Wednesday night with left fielder Matt Holliday and shortstop Rafael Furcal nursing injuries and no timetable for their return to normal duty.
Manager Tony La Russa described Furcal as unavailable for Wednesday's scheduled season finale against the Houston Astros while classifying Holliday as available in emergency only.
General manager John Mozeliak classified both players as "day to day" but acknowledged if either player dealt with his current condition in May or June he might land on the disabled list.
"It certainly would be a consideration," Mozeliak said.
Furcal said a hamstring pull suffered during Monday's series-opening loss had eased Wednesday morning but that he had no idea how soon he might be able to push off the leg. He has previously dealt with a strain of the same hamstring and recognizes the risk of a premature return.
"It's a little better. We'll see tomorrow," said Furcal, who swung a bat but did not participate in defensive drills before Wednesday's game.
Holliday did not appear on the field Wednesday after aggravating a tendon strain at the base of his right middle finger during Tuesday's win. Holliday said he felt renewed pain in the area while making a throw during the second inning. La Russa lifted him in the bottom of the third inning.
"It's strange because I can do certain things and have little or no discomfort, and there are other things that really cause it to grab," said Holliday, who injured the hand during an overly aggressive round of batting practice in Pittsburgh two weeks ago. "There's not a whole lot I can do about it right now."
Holliday is scheduled to visit a hand specialist today and may accept a cortisone injection to alleviate inflammation. "That's about the only thing we haven't tried yet," he said.

My game by game thoughts, the way I think the Cardinals can possibly win this series.
Game 1 -- Lohse v. Halladay -- Lohse just did this task already in philly, against doc. We need it one more time. 50/50, but we need it to win this series.
Game 2 -- Garcia v. Lee -- We're fucked here, we lose this game.
Game 3 -- Oswalt v. Carpenter -- In St. Louis, and if Carpenter can bring the same level of command he had yesterday? We win.
Game 4 -- Hamels v. Jackson -- We win this game.
Game 5 -- Lohse v. Halladay -- Hopefully unnecessary. Halladay in a big game is probably going to spell our doom.

Overall, here's my skinny.
The cards either win this series 3-1 or they lose it. I don't see any possible way they can win game 2, so the sweep is out the window. I don't think you're going to beat Halladay twice either. However, I do think we have a 50/50 split chance to win Game 1 (Lohse has a 1.79 ERA over his last 30.1 innings of work (last 5 starts), including the 4-3 win in Philly over Halladay). You have a winnable matchup in game 4 with Jackson against Hamels. What you're left with is finding another win in games 2,3,5. Since I've already thrown 2/5 out as unwinnable. That leaves you with the game 3 matchup in St. Louis with Carpenter coming off a 2 hitter with great command, up against a pitcher who has done little else but kick our ass all over baseball for about 10 years now. However, in St. Louis, with Carpenter, I can see us getting out of it with a 1-0 or 2-1 style of win.

So summary.
Get game 1, because you are losing game 2, get through enough with homefield and Carp to overcome Oswalt in game 3, and finish off a Phillies team now on the ropes by jumping on their weakest playoff pitcher (Hamels) in game 4.

That's my hope, and really the only way I see us winning this. I would call Philly in 4 the safer bet, mostly because I can see us losing the first 2, and while I can see Carp keeping us alive, I can't see Jackson being ready for that kind of pressure game.

I wonder how many of these games will be televised on Dish?  I'm leaving to go camping on Friday (or sooner if I know my husband), but he will set up our Dish.

"their weakest playoff pitcher (Hamels) in game 4."

Didn't Hamels win the World Series MVP the year they won?

forsberg_us wrote:

Everything I'm hearing points to Garcia in Game 2, but as easily as he comes unglued in adverse conditions, I'm not sure I expose him to Philadelphia in the post-season.  I know they want to run a lefty against the Philly lineup, but if he has a meltdown, it really doesn't matter what hand he throws with.

As difficult as it's going to be, the Cardinals' offense is going to have to win a game, maybe 2, for them to have a chance.

Holliday has to be healthy.  I am not worried about Furcal so much.  Punto has been damn good.

"Everything I'm hearing points to Garcia in Game 2"

Doesn't surprise me, but I'd go with Jackson. He's given up two earned runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts, and he's not going to get intimidated. And Garcia is a much better pitcher at home.

Halladay has got a 2.45 ERA in 3 postseason starts.  2-1 record
Lee has a 2.13 ERA in 10 starts with a 7-2 record.  He crapped out in the WS last year allowing 8 runs in 11.2 innings
Hamels has a 3.33 ERA in 12 starts with a 6-4 record. 
Oswalt has a 3.39 ERA in 10 starts with a 5-1 record.  Most of that was pre 2006.  He was hittable last year.

I think you could make a case to start was 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA this season instead of Oswalt.  Oswalt would be great in pen setting up Lidge.

Yahoo says Game 1 is on TBS Saturday 11 a.m. here in St. Louis.

I think they'll go with Garcia. I understand the hesitation since he's a bit of a crybaby when things start falling apart, but I think he's done well against Philadelphia. I would prefer they hold him off until they get back to Busch.

tkihshbt wrote:

Yahoo says Game 1 is on TBS Saturday 11 a.m. here in St. Louis.

I think they'll go with Garcia. I understand the hesitation since he's a bit of a crybaby when things start falling apart, but I think he's done well against Philadelphia. I would prefer they hold him off until they get back to Busch.

You mean in Philly right?

"You mean in Philly right?"

I think he was referring to the start time in the Central Time Zone.
Yahoo is also reporting Lohse will start. No surprise, Halladay gets the ball for the Phightins.

artie_fufkin wrote:

One other thing that ought to be mentioned is how Charlie Manuel managed that game to win last night. Giardi is getting killed in Boston today for not using Rivera in the ninth inning last night, and there are even some yahoos out there who have suggested the Yankees let the Rays win on purpose to keep the Red Sox out of the playoffs (go figure the Red Sox would think everything is about them ...)
As much as I think a manager has the primary responsibility to prepare his team to win in the playoffs, Manuel understood there was an integrity component involved last night. I know my opinion of Charlie Manuel was forever altered by the way he managed that game, and not just becuase everything worked out in the Cardinals' favor.

The Yankees did roll out there normal linup for the game but it looks as though they called it a night early.  I understand not wanting to burn out te guys but they would have had plenty of timeto rest before Sat.  Having a bullpen game is BS.