Here's the schedule for the first two games of each series (AP, you can ignore the ALDS sked if you wish):

Friday
Rays at Rangers, 5 p.m.
Tigers at Yankees, 8:30 p.m.

Saturday
Dbacks at Brewers, 2 p.m.
Cardinals at Phillies, 5 p.m.
Rays at Rangers, 7 p.m. (TNT)
Detroit at Yankees, 8:30 p.m.

Sunday
Dbacks at Brewers, 4:30 p.m.
Cardinals at Phillies, 8 p.m.

Edit: Those are EDTs.

Last edited by artie_fufkin (9/29/2011 2:36 pm)

Well there's a number of thoughts. The outcast from the Philly rotation is their rookie, who went 11-3. I can't remember his name, we beat him though, so there's no way or reason to option Oswalt to the pen. I personally would take Oswalt over any other Philadelphia starter in a series against St. Louis if I had to have the game. Roy Oswalt should never be looked at based on his season numbers when it comes to playing against the Cardinals.

MLB theater.
Last night was, in my opinion, the most amazing night of theater baseball has ever seen in the regular season. To have the Yankee's lose that lead against Tampa Bay, the Red Sox lose their 9th inning lead on a walkoff, and for Atlanta to lose their 9th inning lead and lose in extra frames too? You also had guys within a game of placements for homefield going on at the same time! While I was absolutely thrilled with the Cardinals performance, I stopped watching at about the 6th inning, and flipped over to the Braves/Phillies game full-time. I watched the last little bit of the AL games too. In my minds the blown yankee 7 run lead and walkoff for baltimore trumped us pounding the astros and the phillies getting an extra inning win.

My call for the Series
I dunno how the series with Philly is going to play out, the earlier thing was just my call. Cardinals in 4, or Phillies in 5, depending on who wins game 3, and I'm calling Cardinals. My calls have been pretty solid lately, by looking at pitching matchups and team histories. I had us playing a 1 game playoff with Atlanta, and Atlanta was winning that game when Hudson came out, but I was wrong there. Other than that, I was spot on with every game that Atlanta played against Philly (losing vs lee, losing with lowe against oswalt). Before that I called Lowe losing against Vazquez too. So I think I'm getting "gifted pick" ego, and maybe I'm being a homer, but if we can beat Halladay on Saturday, game 3,4 are games we can also get wins out of.

NYY not playing to win.
I think Charlie Manual did a very honorable and fine thing, but that's not what I would expect any manager to do.  You have your playoff spot secured, you have no responsibility to play your best group against a team for any game once you have what you want locked down. I don't expect you to throw a game, but I'm not running out my stud closer for the last game if I want to keep him fresh for the playoffs. I'm not putting Hamels on the mound, or running any of my starters for a full game, or any of the game if I don't think it will help us in postseason. As a manager your responsibility is to what best benefits your club. This is a great opportunity for late callups just to see what's in the prospects. Give some bench time out to the guys riding pine all year. If we stay hot and burn through Philly, Manual will be highly criticized for not rolling over against Atlanta. I also think the last thing anyone associated with the Yankees cares about is what the feelings are coming out of Boston. the next best thing to getting to post-season is knocking the red sox out of postseason. They got both.

"If we stay hot and burn through Philly, Manual will be highly criticized for not rolling over against Atlanta."

You're right, and that would be unfair and pointless.

Max wrote:

I am wondering if they might pull a surprise and have Carpenter pitch game 2 on short rest.  he has been so strong down the stretch I am pretty sure he'd be up for it, and he might even toss another gem.

Garcia's home away splits are so bad that they'd be fools to waste him on an away game.  I think garcia should be a lock for game 3. 

Lohse
Carpenter
Garcia
Jackson
Bullpen game (if necessary)

Tough call. The Carpenter game is one they have to win. If you burn Carpenter on three days rest and lose, it's over. But, if you start him in Game 2, you get him back for Game 5.
I still like Lohse-Jackson-Carpenter-Garcia in that order. With the two days off, you can go with Lohse and/or Jackson in Game 5, and maybe get an inning or two out of the bullpen from Carpenter if you need to.

More on that:

Way ahead of ourselves, but if we win, we want to win this thing in 4 games.  I don't want to go back to Philadelphia tied 2-2 and counting on our bullpen to beat one of the Phillies starters on full rest. 

If we lose game one in Philly, there's a chance that either Carp or Garcia, our two best pitchers, don't even appear in the playoffs, such as if we get swept.  No sense wasting Garcia on game 2.  Thus, I see Carp starting game 2, but it might be a below the radar, "last minute" (they knew all along) kind of thing, especially if we lose game 1.

Game 1, 4:07 p.m. Saturday: Roy Halladay (19-6) vs. Kyle Lohse (14-8)

Game 2, 7:07 p.m. Sunday: Cliff Lee (17-8) vs. Edwin Jackson (5-2)

Game 3, time TBA: Cole Hamels (14-9) vs. Chris Carpenter (11-9)



Read more: http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/cardinal-beat/article_c5c21422-eadd-11e0-935e-001a4bcf6878.html#ixzz1ZNjiX7T9

I looked it up. Larussa has not started a pitcher on 3 days rest since 1996, and the pitcher got killed.

well, let's make sure we are talking about the same thing.  pitching carp on sunday would be one single day ahead of his normal rotation.  that kind of thing happens all the time in the playoffs, and used to be the norm, prior to the five-man rotation.

forsberg_us wrote:

I understand exactly what you're saying, and Larussa hasn't done it since 1996.

without looking it up, i'm guessing he hasn't managed too many 7 game series where he had an indisputable ace who was ready to go in game 1. 

but take a look at some others.  how many games did herscheiser pitch in the 1988 playoffs and on how much rest?

I'm saying he'll open the series.  I'm saying that he might be a good choice to start game 2, especially if we lose game one.

Max wrote:

and fwiw, gibson was a different era.  herscheiser was pretty much of this era: five man rotation, closer, bullpen to cover part or all of the 7th and 8th innings.  if herscheiser's stats from that year look like they are of a different era, it's because he ended the season by pitching 59+ consecutive shutout innings.

Sure Max, whatever.  Never mind that Hershiser had 15 complete games in 1988--more than 28 teams in the major leagues this year.    But you're right, nothing has changed.

"You are using the very same fact that I mentioned would make Herscheiser's era look different, i.e. Hercheiser's stats that year.  The complete games were largely influenced by his success.  When you throw 59 consecutive shutout innings, they tend to let you complete a lot of games."

Then perhaps you can explain Hershiser's 10 CGs in 1987 when he was 16-16.  Or his 8 CGs the year prior.  Or his 58 CGs between 84-89.  Or the other 17 CGs by Dodger pitchers in 1988 who weren't named Hershiser.  Or Dave Stewart's 14 CG in 1988.  I don't remember Stewart having a long scoreless streak.

You're right Max.  They could move Carpenter to Game 2.  It isn't like the idea of starting a pitcher on 3 days rest is a novel idea.  Lee did it last year for Texas.  Sabbathia has done it.  I'd be surprised if Halladay hasn't started on 3 days rest.  My point was pretty simple.  It's not Larussa's MO.  He hasn't done it in more than a decade, despite opportunities to do so.  Carpenter has never started on 3 days rest at any point in his career.  IMO, that makes it less likely he gets moved to Game 2.  But less likely does not equal impossible. 

I'll take it a step further and say I hope the Cardinals win Game 1 and we never have to find out whether or not Larussa would have moved Carpenter's start.

But let's not try to pretend that starting pitching in the 80s was the same as starting pitching in the 2000s.  Some of us actually remember that era and know that isn't correct.

Last edited by forsberg_us (9/30/2011 8:50 am)

APRTW wrote:

If I was going to tweek the rotation any it would be to start Jackson in game one.  Other then the one non stressfull inning he threw two days ago it would be like pitching on regular rest.  I would rather have the ablity to throw Jackson twice in the series then Loshe.

He committed to starting Lohse in the 1-game playoff or Game 1 of the LDS when Jackson threw the ninth inning on Tuesday.
It's the best rotation under the circumstances, maybe even better than if they had time to set the rotation and start Carpenter in Game 1. The Cardinals have an advantage in the Game 3 matchup, and maybe the Game 4 matchup if it's Garcia v. Oswalt.
If the Cardinals can somehow swipe a game this weekend ...