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9/30/2011 9:02 am  #51


Re: NLDS Cards vs Phillies

Well shit, the pitching lineups are vastly different then what I saw on yahoo sports yesterday. my shit needs to be rethought.

Game 1, 4:07 p.m. Saturday: Roy Halladay (19-6) vs. Kyle Lohse (14-8)
Game 2, 7:07 p.m. Sunday: Cliff Lee (17-8) vs. Edwin Jackson (5-2)
Game 3, time TBA: Cole Hamels (14-9) vs. Chris Carpenter (11-9)

What's games 4,5 like? Or is that unknown?

 

9/30/2011 9:12 am  #52


Re: NLDS Cards vs Phillies

P-D:

"Dick Stockton, longtime broadcaster for several networks, has the play-by-play assignment. Chicago Cubs analyst Bob Brenly serves as analyst and Craig Sager - known for his bright sports coats and ties while covering NBA games for Turner - will handle reporting duties for the series."

Ugh.

 

9/30/2011 9:14 am  #53


Re: NLDS Cards vs Phillies

alz wrote:

Well shit, the pitching lineups are vastly different then what I saw on yahoo sports yesterday. my shit needs to be rethought.

Game 1, 4:07 p.m. Saturday: Roy Halladay (19-6) vs. Kyle Lohse (14-8)
Game 2, 7:07 p.m. Sunday: Cliff Lee (17-8) vs. Edwin Jackson (5-2)
Game 3, time TBA: Cole Hamels (14-9) vs. Chris Carpenter (11-9)

What's games 4,5 like? Or is that unknown?

Game 4 is probably Oswalt v. Garcia. If the Phils are down, 2 games to 1, I'd imagine Manuel might bring back Halladay.
Game 5 probably starts with Lohse, with all hands on deck.

 

9/30/2011 12:02 pm  #54


Re: NLDS Cards vs Phillies

forsberg_us wrote:

"You are using the very same fact that I mentioned would make Herscheiser's era look different, i.e. Hercheiser's stats that year.  The complete games were largely influenced by his success.  When you throw 59 consecutive shutout innings, they tend to let you complete a lot of games."

Then perhaps you can explain Hershiser's 10 CGs in 1987 when he was 16-16.  Or his 8 CGs the year prior.  Or his 58 CGs between 84-89.  Or the other 17 CGs by Dodger pitchers in 1988 who weren't named Hershiser.  Or Dave Stewart's 14 CG in 1988.  I don't remember Stewart having a long scoreless streak.

You're right Max.  They could move Carpenter to Game 2.  It isn't like the idea of starting a pitcher on 3 days rest is a novel idea.  Lee did it last year for Texas.  Sabbathia has done it.  I'd be surprised if Halladay hasn't started on 3 days rest.  My point was pretty simple.  It's not Larussa's MO.  He hasn't done it in more than a decade, despite opportunities to do so.  Carpenter has never started on 3 days rest at any point in his career.  IMO, that makes it less likely he gets moved to Game 2.  But less likely does not equal impossible. 

I'll take it a step further and say I hope the Cardinals win Game 1 and we never have to find out whether or not Larussa would have moved Carpenter's start.

But let's not try to pretend that starting pitching in the 80s was the same as starting pitching in the 2000s.  Some of us actually remember that era and know that isn't correct.

But starting your ace for games 1, 4, and 7, isn't completely unthinkable in this day and age, and my point was the amount of appearances Hescheiser made in the '88 playoffs.  Pitching has changed over the past 25 years, but not as much as the 25 years between Gibson and Herscheiser, I suspect.

Thanks for the research that starting the pitcher on short rest is not La Russa's MO, nor Carp's.  But I seem to recall some times during the regular season when there were discussions of pitchers going on short rest in order to jigger the rotation for a key series.  Could be a flawed memory.

But we agree on the rest.  Carp in game 2 isn't unthinkable, but a win in game 1 makes it less thinkable.

 

9/30/2011 12:06 pm  #55


Re: NLDS Cards vs Phillies

alz wrote:

Well shit, the pitching lineups are vastly different then what I saw on yahoo sports yesterday. my shit needs to be rethought.

Game 1, 4:07 p.m. Saturday: Roy Halladay (19-6) vs. Kyle Lohse (14-8)
Game 2, 7:07 p.m. Sunday: Cliff Lee (17-8) vs. Edwin Jackson (5-2)
Game 3, time TBA: Cole Hamels (14-9) vs. Chris Carpenter (11-9)

What's games 4,5 like? Or is that unknown?

FWIW, my thought is that IF they go with Carp in game 2, it will be a last minute under the radar thing, a "surprise" that was not whispered to the media, but which la russa and carp had known and discussed well-beforehand.

 

9/30/2011 2:04 pm  #56


Re: NLDS Cards vs Phillies

Bernie announced via Twitter that Carpenter is starting Game 2.

 

9/30/2011 2:05 pm  #57


Re: NLDS Cards vs Phillies

"my point was the amount of appearances Hescheiser made in the '88 playoffs."

I seriously doubt you'd ever see anyone repeat Herscheiser's '88 playoff workload.  He pitched 8.1 innings in Game 1 of the LCS, pitched 7 innings on 3 days rest in Game 3 (I assume a rain out pushed them back a day), worked a third of an inning and picked up a Save in Game 4, then pitched a complete game shutout in Game 7, three days after earning the save (two days rest).  He then started Game 2 of the World Series on 3 days rest and Game 5 on 3 days rest, pitching complete games in both. 

In 1990, Hersheiser had shoulder surgery after making only 4 starts. 

Before the surgery, Hersheiser's stats were:

99-65, 2.71 ERA

After surgery:

105-85, 4.17 ERA

 

9/30/2011 2:07 pm  #58


Re: NLDS Cards vs Phillies

tkihshbt wrote:

Bernie announced via Twitter that Carpenter is starting Game 2.

Goold and Leach have posted the same thing.  Garcia game 3.

Good call Max (although it wasn't under the radar).

 

9/30/2011 2:25 pm  #59


Re: NLDS Cards vs Phillies

forsberg_us wrote:

(although it wasn't under the radar).

which begs the question of whether they will make a surprise switch and start jackson for game 2 if we win game 1.  again, way ahead of ourselves, but i like the idea of carp pitching for the series win in game 4, if it comes to that.

 

9/30/2011 2:26 pm  #60


Re: NLDS Cards vs Phillies

"i like the idea of carp pitching for the series win in game 4,"

Now you've got him starting on 2 days rest???

 

9/30/2011 2:37 pm  #61


Re: NLDS Cards vs Phillies

forsberg_us wrote:

"i like the idea of carp pitching for the series win in game 4,"

Now you've got him starting on 2 days rest???

reread carefully.

 

9/30/2011 2:38 pm  #62


Re: NLDS Cards vs Phillies

From Pigpen

http://yourenotagolfer.mlblogs.com/2011/09/30/carpenter-to-pitch-game-2/


On an unrelated note, why is Westbrook on the playoff roster?  Why not a pitcher actually used to pitching in the bullpen?  Assuming Holliday and Furcal are on the roster, this team could really use an extra position player.  If they go with 12 pitchers, that's just dumb.

 

9/30/2011 2:43 pm  #63


Re: NLDS Cards vs Phillies

Max wrote:

forsberg_us wrote:

"i like the idea of carp pitching for the series win in game 4,"

Now you've got him starting on 2 days rest???

reread carefully.

Oh, is that your Jackson-switch theory?  My bad.

Actually the link to Leach's blog offers a pretty good reason that I hadn't though of.  With an off-day after game 2 and another one after game 4, if Carpenter pitches game 2, he could start game 5 on regular (4 days) rest.  That being the case, starting Carpenter in Game 2 makes some sense.

 

9/30/2011 2:47 pm  #64


Re: NLDS Cards vs Phillies

tkihshbt wrote:

Bernie announced via Twitter that Carpenter is starting Game 2.

What a stupid idea.

 

9/30/2011 2:54 pm  #65


Re: NLDS Cards vs Phillies

artie_fufkin wrote:

tkihshbt wrote:

Bernie announced via Twitter that Carpenter is starting Game 2.

What a stupid idea.

rec.

 

9/30/2011 2:56 pm  #66


Re: NLDS Cards vs Phillies

"if Carpenter pitches game 2, he could start game 5 on regular (4 days) rest.  That being the case, starting Carpenter in Game 2 makes some sense."

Of course, trying to map these things out by the pitching matchups never works the way it's supposed to, but it seems to me the best route to winning this thing is hoping you steal one of the first two in Philadelphia and taking the two games in St. Louis. Lee v. either Carpenter on three days rest or Jackson regular rest gives a huge advantage to the Phillies. Hamels v. Carpenter on regular rest is a push at worst for the Cardinals.

Planning for Game 5 is the part that bothers me. I've seen enough managers try to work playoffs and tournaments around matchups, and it almost never comes out the way they intended.

Last edited by artie_fufkin (9/30/2011 2:58 pm)

 

9/30/2011 2:58 pm  #67


Re: NLDS Cards vs Phillies

forsberg_us wrote:

Max wrote:

forsberg_us wrote:

"i like the idea of carp pitching for the series win in game 4,"

Now you've got him starting on 2 days rest???

reread carefully.

Oh, is that your Jackson-switch theory?  My bad.

Actually the link to Leach's blog offers a pretty good reason that I hadn't though of.  With an off-day after game 2 and another one after game 4, if Carpenter pitches game 2, he could start game 5 on regular (4 days) rest.  That being the case, starting Carpenter in Game 2 makes some sense.

i think artie already brought that up.  still, i think that the outcome of game one is relevant.  i have a lot of confidence in garcia pitching game three, and that's the way i would manage the series.  thus, if we win game one, then i would manage game 2 as though we were going to be playing for the series at home, probably in game 4, and a rested carp would be a good bet.

 

9/30/2011 3:00 pm  #68


 

9/30/2011 3:03 pm  #69


Re: NLDS Cards vs Phillies

Max wrote:

I am wondering if they might pull a surprise and have Carpenter pitch game 2 on short rest.  he has been so strong down the stretch I am pretty sure he'd be up for it, and he might even toss another gem.

Garcia's home away splits are so bad that they'd be fools to waste him on an away game.  I think garcia should be a lock for game 3. 

Lohse
Carpenter
Garcia
Jackson
Bullpen game (if necessary)

"Instead of starting Edwin Jackson in Game 2, as had been reported, La Russa said Chris Carpenter will start Sunday's Game 2 against the Phillies on short rest.  La Russa also said Jaime Garcia will start Tuesday's Game 3 at Busch Stadium. . . .

"No. 1, that's not something you take lightly," La Russa said. "As we've gotten into the season, he's gotten stronger and stronger.
"No. 2, he had the kind of game (in Houston) that was not a stressful game. I don't mean the score. His delivery was free and easy. He could have gone another 50 pitches. If you're looking for a sign whether to consider it, (that was the sign)."


Read more: http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/article_43423596-eb9a-11e0-ba12-001a4bcf6878.html#ixzz1ZT4XMT6M

Last edited by Max (9/30/2011 3:03 pm)

 

9/30/2011 3:10 pm  #70


Re: NLDS Cards vs Phillies

forsberg_us wrote:

From Pigpen

http://yourenotagolfer.mlblogs.com/2011/09/30/carpenter-to-pitch-game-2/


On an unrelated note, why is Westbrook on the playoff roster?  Why not a pitcher actually used to pitching in the bullpen?  Assuming Holliday and Furcal are on the roster, this team could really use an extra position player.  If they go with 12 pitchers, that's just dumb.

who chooses the roster?  la russa or mozeliak?

 

9/30/2011 3:15 pm  #71


Re: NLDS Cards vs Phillies

Max wrote:

forsberg_us wrote:

From Pigpen

http://yourenotagolfer.mlblogs.com/2011/09/30/carpenter-to-pitch-game-2/


On an unrelated note, why is Westbrook on the playoff roster?  Why not a pitcher actually used to pitching in the bullpen?  Assuming Holliday and Furcal are on the roster, this team could really use an extra position player.  If they go with 12 pitchers, that's just dumb.

who chooses the roster?  la russa or mozeliak?

LaRussa, but I'm sure he consults people he respects within the organization. Whether he respects Moz is another matter.
Is Westbrook really on the roster? In what role? Hat-check girl?

 

9/30/2011 3:24 pm  #72


Re: NLDS Cards vs Phillies

I'm curious about whether Carp vs. Lee is wise for Game 2.

It depends I guess. In my opinion Lee is the most difficult pitcher they have. I'd rather we put our weakest against him, basically concede it, and bring the rain against the other 3.

Still though, if we're to have any shot of beating Lee, Carpenter is our best bet.

 

9/30/2011 3:25 pm  #73


Re: NLDS Cards vs Phillies

artie_fufkin wrote:

Max wrote:

forsberg_us wrote:

From Pigpen

http://yourenotagolfer.mlblogs.com/2011/09/30/carpenter-to-pitch-game-2/


On an unrelated note, why is Westbrook on the playoff roster?  Why not a pitcher actually used to pitching in the bullpen?  Assuming Holliday and Furcal are on the roster, this team could really use an extra position player.  If they go with 12 pitchers, that's just dumb.

who chooses the roster?  la russa or mozeliak?

LaRussa, but I'm sure he consults people he respects within the organization. Whether he respects Moz is another matter.
Is Westbrook really on the roster? In what role? Hat-check girl?

my point being that it would be a slap in the face to leave one of moz's marquis acquisitions off the roster.  just one more lingering benefit of the ludwick trade.

 

9/30/2011 3:31 pm  #74


Re: NLDS Cards vs Phillies

alz wrote:

I'm curious about whether Carp vs. Lee is wise for Game 2.

It depends I guess. In my opinion Lee is the most difficult pitcher they have. I'd rather we put our weakest against him, basically concede it, and bring the rain against the other 3.

Still though, if we're to have any shot of beating Lee, Carpenter is our best bet.

Lee lost to Westbrook early in the season, then shut us out a bit later when we started Lohse.  We missed him in the series in September.

 

9/30/2011 4:25 pm  #75


Re: NLDS Cards vs Phillies

"In my opinion Lee is the most difficult pitcher they have. I'd rather we put our weakest against him, basically concede it, and bring the rain against the other 3."

The only problem with that is you're then counting on beating the guy who no-hit the Reds to open last year's NLDS.

I think you have to throw the best you can at Halladay and Lee, hope to steal one, and win the other games not pitched by Halladay and Lee.  This series has a very similar feel to the year we faced the D'Backs with Schilling and Johnson.  Problem is the D'Backs other pitcher(s) weren't nearly as good as Hamels and Oswalt.

 

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