So we can look at this in April and see if the team filled the needs that it presented to itself. 

forsberg_us wrote:

OK folks, this is going to be a bit long and it's going to cover much more than LaRussa.

First, a present for Artie.  I really hope this link works.  http://twitpic.com/2v4r9n  (grin) (grin) (grin)

With regard to Larussa, I was told that  it's about 50-50, but that this is the closest LaRussa has ever been to actually leaving.  My buddy thinks LaRussa will return, but it also wouldn't surprise him if he doesn't come back.  He said there were discussions of what might happen with respect to the other coaches if LaRussa decided to hang em up.  Depending on who was named manager, Duncan could come back as pitching coach, which would be good for my friend.

Turning to Pujols, this situation is also far from a certainty.  If he had to guess, my friend thinks they get him signed.  But he also tells me that DeWitt and his minions have hired a PR firm to provide estimates as to the approximate number of fans they would lose during the upcoming seasons if they were to trade Pujols or let him walk.  According to the model they use, every 100K fans represents $5M in revenue (tickets, concessions, souveneirs, etc...).  Apparently, the initial estimates have been anywhere from 400K to 800K fans, so that's anywhere from $20-40M in lost revenue.  In that sense, Pujols pays for himself if the number exceeds about 550K.

Assuming a deal gets done, the belief is that Pujols is only looking for 5 years, not 7 or 8.  Apparently Pujols frequently comments how he admired McGwire's decision to walk away mid-contract because his skills had deteriorated.  As you might imagine, Pujols is pretty vain, and doesn't seem to be the kind of guy who would accept playing at a level below what he considers acceptable.  Given the physical ailments he's already going through, 5 years might be close to when Pujols is ready to retire.

Before I turn to the issues of what happened this season and what may happen in 2011, I'm going to remind you to consider the source.  My friend is very loyal to LaRussa, having worked with him since 1992.  As such, his opinions are skewed in a version comparable to the LaRussa/Duncan camp.

Starting with 2010, it's my buddy's that the front office assumed Cincinnati would eventually fade and the Cardinals would win the division.  There was no sense of urgency in the front office that the team needed to be improved.  The Ludwick/Westbrook trade was made for 3 reasons: 1) LaRussa/Duncan's public insistence that the team couldn't win without one more established starter; 2) the front office's belief that players from the minors (Rasmus, Jay, Craig, Freese, Ryan, Garcia, Motte, Boggs, etc...) would play prominent roles in leading the team to the division title, thus allowing the front office to trumpet their success in player development; and 3) money.  My friend insists that Cleveland had interest in players from the Cardinals minor league system (not Shelby Miller) that would have been sufficient to complete the Westbrook deal.  The front office didn't want to part with those chips, wanted to dump salary to even out what they were taking on with Westbrook, and dumping Ludwick opened a spot for Jay/Craig.  Although the timing was suspect, he does not believe that the deal was done to appease Rasmus, and he doesn't think players believed so either.

In short, the failure of 2010 was, in large part, the result of the front office over-valuing the quality of the talent coming from Memphis and its mistaken assumption that Freese would return, along with an unwillingness to increase payroll at the trade deadline.  (Max, feel free to have a field day with this).

Moving to 2011, and assuming Pujols returns, the team clearly needs help.  Starting with the offense, if Pujols is back, the C, 1B, LF and CF spots are done.  Despite the reports, regardless of what LaRussa decides, Rasmus is the CF next season.  I was told that Rasmus is actually making efforts to improve and that Holliday has gone significantly out of his way to befriend Colby and to try to teach him how to be a professional.  Setting aside the skills and the fact that he's cheap, they do believe that he's making progress--especially since the situation became public knowledge.

I was told that Craig has the best chance to win the RF spot, if it is filled from within.  They like Jay, but he isn't a run producer.  The coaching staff isn't real fond of Craig's swing, but they do believe he has some intangible qualities that are inherent in players who drive in runs.  In his recent interview, Mozeliak mentioned adding 2 guys who could hit 15-20 HR.  They think Craig could be one of those guys.  Also, he apparently won over some of the coaches by the way he handled being shuffled back and forth between St. Louis and Memphis.  Sometimes it pays to keep your mouth shut, and it sounds like that's exactly what Craig did.

At 3B, expect Freese to be given the first opportunity to start, but the coaching staff wants a legitimate fall back plan in place (i.e., not a middle infielder).

Not surprisingly, middle infield is the biggest area of concern.  During the meeting on Monday, LaRussa apparently told DeWitt and Moz that they need new players at both positions.  Dan Uggla's name has apparently been mentioned as a possible trade target.  Alex Gonzalez is another possibility, but they think Atlanta will pick up his option.  Kelly Johnson and Steven Drew were also names being floated around.  Put simply, they don't want Skip's combination of poor defense and lack-luster offense at 2B.  They're obviously willing to put up with poor defense if it comes with considerable offense (i.e., Uggla), but Skip doesn't offer what they need.  Descalso could be an option, but they think he's a "tweener."  His defense is better at 3B, but his bat is more suited for 2B.  He could make the team as an extra infielder, but probably not as a starter.

SS was the position about which my friend was most insistant.  Ryan must go--plain and simple.  Apparently, Ryan's personality is such that it fosters a divide between the younger players and the veterans.  In fact, I was told that the coaching staff believes that Ryan is much to blame for Rasmus' situation.  Rasmus is impressionable, and apparently Ryan is one of those guys who walks around the clubhouse telling the younger players "Fuck those veterans.  You got to the big leagues without them.  You don't need to listen to anything they tell you."  They want Ryan out of the system as fast as is humanly possible.

We didn't get much into the specifics of the pitching staff.  They would like to bring in 1 starter, at least 1 veteran reliever and would like a real closer.  But that's much more of a wish list than it is reality.

That's what I remember.  Of course there were a few Bud Lights mixed in there, so I may have missed a fact or 2.