APRTW wrote:

Max wrote:

APRTW wrote:

Not at all.  Pujols is going to get his market value.

Depends what you mean by that.  I think if he accepted arbitration he'd discover a fair assessment of his market value, and I have a hunch it's higher than $22 M.

So he would get closer to his market value by not being on the market?  I think you are letting the media speculation cloud his market value.  Just because some talking heads said 6 months ago that he was going to get 30million per year doesnt make that his market value.

not really.  fors's point is on the money: his one year value is far higher than is his 9 year value is the major factor in his value in a long-term contract.  there was a calculation that his 2010 value was $44 million!  if that's the case, and if his value last year was, say, a paltrey $30 million, then the cards have saved about $45 million over the past two years by playing chicken with him.  if they had restructured his deal prior to 2010, as some experts have opined was the opportune time, and offered him 10 years, that would be the equivalent of an 8-year contract today.  What's he worth over the next 8 years?  If he is worth $22 m/9, then surely even DeWitt would acknowledge that his AAV should be a bit higher over 8.  Thus, let's say his 9th year his value has dropped to, say, $4 million.  So, we subtract that from $198 M to get $194, and then add the $45 M that the Cards saved over the past 2 years to get a value of $239/10 (after the 2009 season).  so even if we take what DeWitt was ready to pay, and add what DeWitt cheaped out on . . . (oh wait, let me preempt fors's argument about dewitt's business acumen) . . . before dewitt won his game of chicken, pujols was objectively worth $239/10.  throw in intangibles, stupidity, and other factors, and $300/10 wasn't absurd.  EXCEPT . . . as we have seen, and as I have acknowledged, Pujols played the "I want to be a Cardinal for life" card so long and so often that GM's opined it is "100%" certain that Pujols will resign with the Cards, and thus the big budget teams pulled themselves out of the market over the past few years as superstar 1b-men became available on the FA market.  So, now we can see that Pujols's value is nowhere near $300/10.  Why?

He's older and used 1-2 more prime years.
He's talked himself out of consideration for NYY or BRS, and made other GMs skeptical that it's even worth their time to sit down with him.

So, even if, at 29 years old he was worth $300/10, and if his value would have been projected to be about $80 (not knowing he'd have a big offseason in 2011), then his current value would by $220/8 . . . not that different from DeWitt's lowball offer. 

That's my line of thinking anyway . . .

Last edited by Max (12/01/2011 9:26 pm)

APRTW wrote:

If you put your house "on the market" and wanted $150,000 but after a year the highest bid you got was $100,000 then what is the market value of your house?  Any person or object is only worth what someone is willing to pay.  Pujols could be 22 and hitting 80 HRs a season and his value would still only be what someone is willing to pay.

Rec.

It really is that simple, isn't it?

It really, truly irritates you that it seems Pujols is going to have to "settle" for a contract much closer to what DeWitt is willing to pay, rather than the amount Pujols wants, doesn't it?

forsberg_us wrote:

APRTW wrote:

If you put your house "on the market" and wanted $150,000 but after a year the highest bid you got was $100,000 then what is the market value of your house?  Any person or object is only worth what someone is willing to pay.  Pujols could be 22 and hitting 80 HRs a season and his value would still only be what someone is willing to pay.

Rec.

It really is that simple, isn't it?

Seems to me that it is but Max can never admitt he is wrong.  No matter how bad he corners himself.  Why Dewitt would pay over market value, IDK.  Why a Cardinals fan wants ownership to be tied into longer term and more costly contract, IDK either.  Maybe Max is worrie about Pujols' kids starving.

APRTW wrote:

Seems to me that it is but Max can never admitt he is wrong.

Good point.

Max and Alz may have been right on the contract length issue after all.  Despite previous reports to the contrary, the latest report states that it is believed the 9 year deal the Cardinals offered did include 2011.

"The Cardinals continue to operate under the assumption that they will have the right to match or beat any rival's bid. Their previous nine-year proposal is believed to have included the 2011 season, meaning only eight years would remain. If Pujols deemed the offer inadequate in January, any downward revision in term or average annual value could only further polarize the parties. A potential compromise would appear to be increasing the AAV for fewer years and possibly attaching one or more options."


Read more: http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/market-for-pujols-is-a-question/article_a0bfea4d-c90c-5167-8d42-437195ae4743.html#ixzz1fhqQQetB

forsberg_us wrote:

Max and Alz may have been right on the contract length issue after all.  Despite previous reports to the contrary, the latest report states that it is believed the 9 year deal the Cardinals offered did include 2011.

"The Cardinals continue to operate under the assumption that they will have the right to match or beat any rival's bid. Their previous nine-year proposal is believed to have included the 2011 season, meaning only eight years would remain. If Pujols deemed the offer inadequate in January, any downward revision in term or average annual value could only further polarize the parties. A potential compromise would appear to be increasing the AAV for fewer years and possibly attaching one or more options."

I wonder if offering something with "wow" factor would get the deal done, say, $150/5 with performance-triggeered options years for another 5 years? (grin)

forsberg_us wrote:

Max and Alz may have been right on the contract length issue after all.  Despite previous reports to the contrary, the latest report states that it is believed the 9 year deal the Cardinals offered did include 2011.

"The Cardinals continue to operate under the assumption that they will have the right to match or beat any rival's bid. Their previous nine-year proposal is believed to have included the 2011 season, meaning only eight years would remain. If Pujols deemed the offer inadequate in January, any downward revision in term or average annual value could only further polarize the parties. A potential compromise would appear to be increasing the AAV for fewer years and possibly attaching one or more options."


Read more: http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/market-for-pujols-is-a-question/article_a0bfea4d-c90c-5167-8d42-437195ae4743.html#ixzz1fhqQQetB

that seems to make me believe that PUjols really is going to look back and wish he would have taken the offer the Cardinals gave him.  If he ends up taking it he has already left money on the table.

APRTW wrote:

forsberg_us wrote:

Max and Alz may have been right on the contract length issue after all.  Despite previous reports to the contrary, the latest report states that it is believed the 9 year deal the Cardinals offered did include 2011.

"The Cardinals continue to operate under the assumption that they will have the right to match or beat any rival's bid. Their previous nine-year proposal is believed to have included the 2011 season, meaning only eight years would remain. If Pujols deemed the offer inadequate in January, any downward revision in term or average annual value could only further polarize the parties. A potential compromise would appear to be increasing the AAV for fewer years and possibly attaching one or more options."


Read more: http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/market-for-pujols-is-a-question/article_a0bfea4d-c90c-5167-8d42-437195ae4743.html#ixzz1fhqQQetB

that seems to make me believe that PUjols really is going to look back and wish he would have taken the offer the Cardinals gave him.  If he ends up taking it he has already left money on the table.

It depends on how the 9 year deal was constructed. Since they had Pujols budgeted for $16M, they could have had the first year of the deal still at $16M. If so, then the remainder of the deal is 8 years, $182M.

I doubt we'll ever know how they structured that offer. About the only thing I've heard is that it included a decent amount of deferred money.

I'm really starting to get "Pujols contract fatigue."  I don't care anymore, just sign with someone already and get it over with.

Being in the St. Louis area, it's worse than you can imagine.  Pujols is the lead story on the news and the lead story on the Sports segment of the news.  I usually watch the morning news to get information about the weather and traffic, but I've stopped because they talk about Pujols about every 20 minutes.

I will add one last thing.  I read somewhere that Miami hasn't incuded a no-trade clause in any of the contracts it's entering into.  I don't have the familiarity with Loria that Artie does, but I smell another one year run and purge in the works.

"I smell another one year run and purge in the works."

To be fair, the first Marlins' purge is on Wayne Huizenga. According to folklore, he was pissed he had put together a high-priced team in '97 and Miamians didn't immediately drop everything to come out and support it. So he showed them by starting to sell off the pieces about 48 hours after they hoisted the trophy and against the advice of his marketing people, who tried to tell him that he'd get the attendance bump the year after they won a championship, not during it.
As for Loria, the SEC has starting sniffing around about the deal for the new stadium. Stay tuned ...

http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/12/05/2532405/sec-probing-financing-of-new-marlins.html

windwalker wrote:

I'm with you chris. Miami offered 10 years.& if he takes it he takes it. Anyone but the chicago scrubs.

If the Cardinals dont top any offer out there will we get mad about it or respect them for having limits?  If Miami offer 10y/200mill that still doesnt really top the Cards offer by that much if they are offering 22.75 million a year.  We will see.  Like Fors said, I am ready for it to be done.  This thing is dragging out worst then Holliday's contract.