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I'm trying not to be pessimistic about the remainder of the offseason, but if the Cardinals don't make a move to bolster the outfield or second base, then they're going to lose the goodwill built up from the World Series and from ahem, LeBron, going Beverly Hills on us.
The Schumaker deal is fine if he's the fourth/fifth outfielder. I wasn't thrilled about a two-year deal, but $1.5 million is hardly breaking the bank and he can be Just A Guy if injuries set in.
But, my fear now is that they're going to roll with an outfield of Holliday/Jay/Schumaker until Craig returns, while going with Descalso at second. If they indeed "keep their powder dry" because the tea leaves read that 85 wins takes the division in 2012, I think fans are going to make to Mozeliak/DeWitt's life miserable next summer. There is no way they can justify going into a year where they'll be defending World Champions with a lineup featuring Freese and Craig as your complementary guys to Berkman and Holliday. It'll bring back memories of Cement-head and Adam Kennedy as the big offseason acquisitions before 2007.
After being burned by Pujols, they have to do something big and if that means trading for an impact player or signing Beltran, then that's what they should do. But slopping a team together because the rest of the division sucks and you can sell the "defending World Series champions" slogan all next season is going to bring back all the bad memories of 2007 and 2008.
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I will give DeMoz credit for being smart and savvy, and generally they do a pretty god job of reading the tea leaves. But with Bernie and the PD gang shouting instructions, they'd have to be completely tone deaf not to know that this season, of all seasons, they must do something, even if it's just something.
My hunch is they're interested in Beltran, and rather than Lozano being a problem, my hunch is that they're all business-like enough to see this as a chance at a faux, businessman's reconciliation. But if it's not Beltran, they'll go after Rollins, or some other bona fide 'star' that makes sense (e.g. Ramirez made no sense for the Cardinals, but otherwise would have been a bona fide impact player). They must realize that this season they cannot ask the fans for patience.
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"After being burned by Pujols, they have to do something big and if that means trading for an impact player or signing Beltran"
This may be me acting stupid again, but I don't think Moz is going to be in a rush. After towing the line on their franchise player, it would be a little counterproductive to just spend money that would have gone to Pujols to just grab a headline.
I'm not a big Beltran fan at this point. He's coming off a decent year, but he's 35 in April, going to want expensive deal of at least two years, and isn't the most durable fellow. They clearly need a right-handed hitting outfielder with a little pop who they won't have to sign to a long-term contract, but there aren't a lot of guys like that on the market. Ryan Ludwick, anyone?
I'm guessing they're more apt to wait until late July to see who's selling, and who's being sold. If the Cubs are out of it, Marlon Byrd might be a nice snag if Young Theo is looking to save a few sheckles.
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tkihshbt wrote:
But, my fear now is that they're going to roll with an outfield of Holliday/Jay/Schumaker until Craig returns, while going with Descalso at second. If they indeed "keep their powder dry" because the tea leaves read that 85 wins takes the division in 2012,
They cant do this. They needs to add power in this lineup. Berkman isnt going to hit 30hrs again and Craig's injury cold effect his preperation for the season. Going with the above plan shouldnt be an option.
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APRTW wrote:
tkihshbt wrote:
But, my fear now is that they're going to roll with an outfield of Holliday/Jay/Schumaker until Craig returns, while going with Descalso at second. If they indeed "keep their powder dry" because the tea leaves read that 85 wins takes the division in 2012,
They cant do this. They needs to add power in this lineup. Berkman isnt going to hit 30hrs again and Craig's injury cold effect his preperation for the season. Going with the above plan shouldnt be an option.
Given your budget calculations on the other thread, dare i say that a cost-controlled young outfielder with some, like rasmus, would be ideal?
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I kind of expect TK to be right and this to be the team more or less. May they still add Punto.
What I would do is trade McCellan and his 2 million crontract for a left handed pitcher. Then I would likely try and ink Beltran to a 2 year deal. One year would be better but I doubt he would buy it. The two year contract would have to be around 20 million, IMO. After 2012 32.5 million will be off the books due to Berkman, Loshe and Westbrooks contracts. They will unwisely resign Molina for say 10 million leaving them with 20 million ish to play with. Maybe alittle less by the time you figure in Wainwrights and garcias raises. My rambling point is that even though the Cardinals didnt blow their load on Pujols there still isnt huge amounts of cash reamining in their 110 million budget. Still they have two options. Patch up Pujols production for this year with short term deals and wait till next year to add a major contractor do so now.
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I'm still hoping we land Ryan Madsen. Our starters with Motte/Madsen from the pen means scoring runs against us should be pretty difficult. The best offense is a great defense.
I wouldn't mind another bat, but the stuff left out there all has serious flaws. Beltran being 154 years old, Pena hitting .225, Cuddyer maybe as a 1B/OF. A 2b would be cool, but .... dunno. We can bail out a lot of hitting and defense issues with pitching, that's where I'd run.
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It won't be re-signing Punto. Apparently he's agreed to terms with the Red Sox.
!/JonHeymanCBS/status/147052544500318208
ETA 2 years/$3M
Last edited by forsberg_us (12/14/2011 4:10 pm)
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forsberg_us wrote:
It won't be re-signing Punto. Apparently he's agreed to terms with the Red Sox.
!/JonHeymanCBS/status/147052544500318208
ETA 2 years/$3M
I just saw that. I am more then alittle pissed that they picked Skip over Punto for the exact same money. What bullshit!
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APRTW wrote:
forsberg_us wrote:
It won't be re-signing Punto. Apparently he's agreed to terms with the Red Sox.
!/JonHeymanCBS/status/147052544500318208
ETA 2 years/$3MI just saw that. I am more then alittle pissed that they picked Skip over Punto for the exact same money. What bullshit!
Different roles AP. Skip is being brought back as a 4th or 5th outfielder. Punto would be a utility infielder, and they have one of those with Greene, and Greene is a million dollars cheaper.
I'm surprised there's as much love for Punto. He's decent defensively, but otherwise pretty non-descript. He's a career .249 hitter who couldn't stay healthy last season.
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Not too surprised by Punto's move. It was not hard to read the tea leaves here, and see that he was not a high priority, and indeed, stood in the way of the advancement of an organizational candidate for the job who had the strong vocal support of both the GM and the new manager.
Last edited by Max (12/14/2011 5:43 pm)
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In terms of fulfilling the title of this thread, if I were to predict their very next move, it wouldn't have been the Schumaker signing. That reads to me like putting Plan D in place. Plan D still requires a LHP, but LHP can be had when the time arises. On the other hand, their most crucial intangible need is to maintain the trust of the fanbase, and impact players slowly get scooped up. So, I am guessing the very next thing will be a 2-year contract to an impact player who fills a need in the OF or middle infield. Thus a 2-year deal for Beltran or Rollins, or an interesting trade for a similar position.
I would not even know what LHP they would be targeting at this point, but they will snare that when the opportunity presents itself.
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forsberg_us wrote:
APRTW wrote:
forsberg_us wrote:
It won't be re-signing Punto. Apparently he's agreed to terms with the Red Sox.
!/JonHeymanCBS/status/147052544500318208
ETA 2 years/$3MI just saw that. I am more then alittle pissed that they picked Skip over Punto for the exact same money. What bullshit!
Different roles AP. Skip is being brought back as a 4th or 5th outfielder. Punto would be a utility infielder, and they have one of those with Greene, and Greene is a million dollars cheaper.
I'm surprised there's as much love for Punto. He's decent defensively, but otherwise pretty non-descript. He's a career .249 hitter who couldn't stay healthy last season.
DeWitt must have disrespected Punto......
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Twitter world speculating that Cardinals and J C Romero are closing in on a deal.
ETA- sorry Don, didn't see you posted this elsewhere.
Last edited by forsberg_us (12/14/2011 9:06 pm)
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forsberg_us wrote:
Twitter world speculating that Cardinals and J C Romero are closing in on a deal.
He's not the lights out guy he was two years ago, but he might be worth a look.
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forsberg_us wrote:
APRTW wrote:
forsberg_us wrote:
It won't be re-signing Punto. Apparently he's agreed to terms with the Red Sox.
!/JonHeymanCBS/status/147052544500318208
ETA 2 years/$3MI just saw that. I am more then alittle pissed that they picked Skip over Punto for the exact same money. What bullshit!
Different roles AP. Skip is being brought back as a 4th or 5th outfielder. Punto would be a utility infielder, and they have one of those with Greene, and Greene is a million dollars cheaper.
I'm surprised there's as much love for Punto. He's decent defensively, but otherwise pretty non-descript. He's a career .249 hitter who couldn't stay healthy last season.
If I remember our Anderson debate you claimed that a million dollar was meaningless. I understand they are different roles but I see the role Punto could have played as being much more important then the role Skip will play. With the injury prone Freese and Furcal a third and sort and the unproven Desclso at second I would like a much better bakup plan then Greene. Punto could have actually won the second base job. You wonder why the love for Punto, I wonder wy the willingness to hand te second base job to Delscalso. Greene might have more long term potential butPunto was solid. No bonehead plays. Stablity is imporant when injuries creep up. I would much rather go with Chambers and Punto then Skip and Greene.
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AP, I don't dislike Punto. He's a nice utility player who brings a solid glove, but a lifetime .652 OPS in almost 3,000 plate appearances. He fills a role, but he's not an everyday player. I also suspect that the amount of time Punto spent on the DL didn't help his case. As you said, Punto's role would be increasingly important in the event of an injury, but he isn't much help if he's on the DL himself. If Punto hadn't started last season on the DL, Descalso probably doesn't make the team.
Why Descalso? He's 25, he's a former 3rd round pick who worked his way through the farm system, he's good enough defensively that he was a finalist for a gold glove despite largely playing 3B as a late-inning defensive replacement, and he's cost-controlled. That's probably enough to earn him at least an opportunity. I don't have the list of free agent 2B in front of me, but I seem to remember it was thin (especially after Kelly Johnson accepted arbitration). I think they made the decision to stay the course and, if it doesn't work out, explore a trade later.
I'm not sold on Greene either, but he clearly has supporters within the organization. He's a former first round pick and he's out of options. If they don't trade him, they have to release him. Whether we like it or not, it appears they're giving him every shot to stick.
Barring injury, Chambers isn't going to make the team. I can't remember when I read it, but the story I read made it pretty clear the team preferred him starting and playing at AAA rather than sitting the bench as a 4th or 5th outfielder in St. Louis.
As far as the money, what I said was the difference between paying a player $1M and $400K should be meaningless. I still believe that. But it isn't my money, and the fact that I believe it doesn't mean that they agree.
One other thing--an unpleasant thought, but a consideration nonetheless. As we sit here today, Skip Schumaker is probably the starting right fielder. I certainly hope that changes in the next 3-4 months, but it isn't inconceivable that we see Schumaker in right field until Craig gets healthy.
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OK. So, why so little love for Skip as an outfielder? I agree that I would be happier with him as 4th outfielder, but why agonize about Skip and not Jay? Aren't they pretty similar overall, in terms of on field performance?
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Max wrote:
OK. So, why so little love for Skip as an outfielder? I agree that I would be happier with him as 4th outfielder, but why agonize about Skip and not Jay? Aren't they pretty similar overall, in terms of on field performance?
IMO, not really.
Defensively it's sort of break even. Jay covers a lot more ground, but Schumaker has the better arm.
Offensively, Jay is the much better performer. Their average/OBP is fairly similar, but Jay has more power, both in terms of HR and gap power. Jay had 10 HR last season. Schumaker has 11 HR in the last 3 seasons. Jay's career OPS is .773. Schu's OPS last season was .685, and it was worse the year before.
Jay has some speed, although he clearly needs to learn how to use it. He had 6 SBs last season, but was thrown out stealing 7 times. Schumaker has just become slow with age. Not only can't he steal a base, but he isn't particularly reliable going 1st to 3rd or scoring on a hit.
Also, Jay, at 27, should be headed into his peak years. Schu, at 32, is probably headed into his decline.
I don't mind having Schumaker back. He can play 4 positions in the field, is competent offensively and is a good clubhouse presence. But I don't think his an everyday (or close to it) starter anymore.
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i agree with much of that, though hadn't noticed the power difference. now that i think about, it seems like jay can get a double with a bit more frequency than can schu.
the part that i'm not sure i agree with is range in the outfield. even if jay might be a tad faster, it seems like schu tracks down balls that jay might not. i wonder if schu has better instinct to get moving on the proper route to the ball?
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"the part that i'm not sure i agree with is range in the outfield. even if jay might be a tad faster, it seems like schu tracks down balls that jay might not. i wonder if schu has better instinct to get moving on the proper route to the ball?"
Maybe. I'm sure there's some defensive metric that measures such things, although I'm not sure I would understand it if I found it. I do, however, remember Jay making this catch in the 9th inning of the last game of the LCS.
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I'm remembering this 9th inning catch and throw by Schu in game 3 of the NLDS.
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forsberg_us wrote:
Barring injury, Chambers isn't going to make the team. I can't remember when I read it, but the story I read made it pretty clear the team preferred him starting and playing at AAA rather than sitting the bench as a 4th or 5th outfielder in St. Louis.
That was Strauss' chat. I believe that is the Cardinals plan.
Skip should get some credit. He took a pay cut to stay in St. Louis. IDK what is value on the market would have been but he didnt even test it. He made as much last year as he is going to make in the next two years. There are not to many major league baseball players who will take that kind of pay cut in December.
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This team is fucked if they are done adding infielders. One injury and the tailspin begings. If Furcal gets hurt we will see a platoon of Greene/Delscalso/Skip at 2b and SS. If Freese or Delscalso get hurt Skip turns into the starting second baseman. Freese and Furcal are the teams biggest injury concerns. They might want to prepare. For all the Cardinals talk about the value of good competition they sure are handing a very unproven Delscaso a job. Descalso didnt even have a very good 2011. His OPS that of Theriot and Skip.
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Romero it is: