If you figure in Wainwright at 15 million a year (I think he will get more) they have over 55 million wrapped up on 4 players through 2016(counting Garcia's 2016 option).  If some of these younger guys keep producing they are going to have to start paying them.  They either have alot of long term money tied up or are going to have to cut Wainwright loose.  I dont want that.  If they keep Wainwright I dont see them adding another 15 million/5year contract for a 3or4 hitter.  Then the Cardinals are back into 2006-2008 mode.

That would also make the Cardinals the NL central team with the most long term money tied up.  Maybe I am not correct in my value of Molina but I think there is reason for concern.

Last edited by APRTW (3/02/2012 9:31 am)

forsberg_us wrote:

The current Cardinals had $54 million tied up in their top 4 contracts (Holliday, Berkman, Lohse and Carpenter), but figured out a way to add Beltran ($13M) and extend Molina.  Wainwright is due to make $12M next season.  Even if his new contract was for an AAV of $18M, that's only a $6M raise.

I dont mind having money tied up in next years Cardinals but when you talk about have that money tied up for 3 or 4 years it scares me alittle. 

forsberg_us wrote:

Freese is the next position player to reach arbitration (he gets there next season).  Even if he plays really well (and stays healthy), he's probably 3 years away from a contract of any significance.  Craig is a year behind Freese.  By that time, their hope is that you'll also be watching Kolten Wong and Zack Cox, both of whom will be making under $1M.

Even contract of McCellan size start to eat into the payroll.  Motte was in his first year of arbitration and got 2 mill.  IDK what you consider significant but the Cardinals have 3 players in there first year of arbitration next year, Freese, Scrabble and Boggs.  I know they all wont get 2 million.  A raise to Wainwright, Molina and arbitration players will likely cut inot alot of the money coming off the books.  I feel they over paid Molina by as much as 5million a year and I believe that will haunt them down the road. 

forsberg_us wrote:

IMO, you're setting yourself up for disappointment if you think they're going to sign a Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez type bat in the next couple of years.  Expect Craig to replace Berkman next season, leaving a middle four of Beltran, Holliday, Freese and Craig.  When Beltran leaves after 2013, they'll need to add someone.  Maybe that's Matt Adams.  Maybe it's someone outside of the organization.  But if you look at what they're doing right now, they're saying they can carry 4-5 players making $10+M per season.  This year, they have 5 guys making that much.  Next year, they'll also have 5 (Holliday, Beltran, Molina, Wainwright, Carpenter).  As of right now, they have only 2 under contract for 2014 (Holliday and Molina).  With $30M coming off of the books after the 2013 season, they'll have plenty of room to re-sign Wainwright, pay their young players and still add a player if needed.

That is what I dont like.  The St. Louis Cardinals were not much fun to watch between MV3 and Holliday and it really took Berkman to put the team over the edge.  I would just like to see the freedom to grab a guy like Andre Ethier or B.J. Upton next offseason if Beltran or Jay dont workout.  Instead I feel like the only place the team can afford to go for player is to the minors.

2013 Roster Matrix

1B - Craig = .500
2b - Greene = .500
3b - Freese = 2 million , a starting third baseman has to make at least as much a Motte did in arbitration
ss - Furcal = 7.5
lf - holliday = 17
cf - Jay = .500
rf - Beltran = 13
c - Molina 15

bn - descalso = .500
bn - Cruz = .500
bn - Skip = 1.5
bn - Carpenter = .500
bn - random minor = .500

sp - carp = 10.5
sp - wain = 12
sp - Garcia = 5.8
sp - Miller = .500
sp - Scrable = 1, arbitration guess

bp - Motte = 3, arbitration guess
bp - McCellan = 3, arbitration guess, hopefully hes gone / Boggs = .500
bp - Salas = .500
bp - Lynn = .500
bp - Lefty = no lefties in the org
bp - Lefty = same as above
sp - Sanchez = .500

That is only 92.3 by my figures.  Still needed would be 2 lefties.  I feel better now.  If there limit was 110 they could add a short term 10 million contract.

tkihshbt wrote:

Really, does anyone believe that the difference between Molina and say, Paulino or Dioner Navarro is worth $10-11 million?

I certainly dont.  However I dont really care how much they overpay someone as long as a good team takes the field.  I am worried about the heart of the lineup after this year.   As Fors stated it will likely be some combo of an aging Beltran, Holiday still in his prime, Craig and a wobbley Freese.  If the team doesnt have the ablity to adjust we could be stuck hoping Adams doesnt turn out to be another Hamilton.

Also I had brought up trading Molina in the past.  If this contract is truely his value it proves why that should have been thought of as an option.  Think of the major league level prospect the Cardinals could have got for the best catcher since Johnny Bench.

AP,

A couple of lefties in the organization to keep an eye on:

John Gast- probably the best of any lefty at a high level in the organization.  May start the season at Memphis (no lower than Springfield).

Justin Wright- a recent draft pick who tore it up last season (52 IP, 27 H, 70 K, 18 BB).  They hope to get him up to Springfield this season.

forsberg_us wrote:

I suspect Goold hit this on the head yesterday when he wrote his piece about how much would Ozzie Smith be paid in today's era.  Maybe I'm wrong, but my guess is that he'd be paid a lot more than you probably believe he'd be worth.

I would have thought that one PD writers could have dug this up.


http://articles.latimes.com/1985-04-16/sports/sp-23369_1_ozzie-smith

Some interesting reads on Molina:

http://redbirdrants.com/2012/02/29/the-numbers-game-yadier-molina-extension-analysis/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cardinals-extend-yadier-molina-at-premium-rate/

"Now, I wasn't against signing Molina, but I am against this ridiculous contract that makes him slightly less compensated than Matt effing Holliday -- easily one of the 10-15 best hitters in baseball."

You're comparing apples to broccoli here, TK. Holliday is paid to hit. His defense is barely a consideration. Molina's value is the exact opposite, and unfortunately for the Cardinals, he had his best offensive season going into the last year of his contract. After losing Pujols, there was no way they could let Molina walk. It would just confirm our suspicions that the front office is a soulless bunch of number crunchers who think we'll root for anyone wearing the Birds on the Bat (which isn't entirely untrue).
Did they overpay for Molina? Yeah, sure. For all the reasons you've stated. And they're probably only going to get two good years out of that contract before he breaks down and/or his skills erode to a point where he's not longer a top-tier defensive catcher.
If there's a breakdown here, it's in the system that failed to develop a replacement for Molina, like they did with Molina himself.
So this probably falls back on Luhnow, who was too busy trying to find his pants in the D.R. than he was scouting catchers. I read a quote from Lunhow yesterday that he's excited about the expansion of the playoffs to 10 teams, because it will make it easier for the Astros to make it to the post-season this year. Sure. And if government reinstitutes the Apollo space program, you and I have got a chance of walking on the moon.

"If Molina's contributions defensively and off the field, whatever they may be, are worth the difference between being the second highest-paid catcher of all-time and a catcher pulled off the street, then the Cardinals should have went to the playoffs more than four times in his career."

This is a seriously stupid statement Tk. But if that's the standard, then Molina should be paid more than Mauer (3 playoffs, no World Series).

Even the sabermaticians whose consensus initial reaction seems to be "the Cardinals appear to have overpaid" have done their matriculations and concluded that $15M is about the right value for what Molina should produce during the life of this contract. You don't like the deal, that's fine, that's your opinion. But let's quit pretending that Molina could be replaced with the bullpen catcher.

forsberg_us wrote:

Maybe I'm wrong, but I seem to remember the issues with the 2007-08 seasons having a lot more to do with pitchers like Cement-head, Mike Maroth, Wellemeyer, Reyes and a cast of other really bad pitchers. Weren't 07-08 the prime years of Ankiel and Ludwick?  IIRC, those teams could hit, but they couldn't pitch to save their lives.

The 2007 Cardinals were 11 in runs scored and 11 in ERA.

The 2008 Cardinals were 4 in runs scored and 7 in ERA. 

the 2009 Cardinals were 7 in runs scored and 4 in ERA. 

The 2010 Cardinals were 6 in runs scored and  4 in ERA. 

The 2011 Cardinals were 1 in runs scored and 8 in ERA.


Last year was the worst pitching year since 2007 but because they hit they won.  There is a reason teams over pay for hitting.

I turned a bit on molina this season because it seems like he's getting a bit fat and lazy stopping balls. That's funny because he was named the best defensive player in baseball, and he hit over .300. He didn't generate a ton of runs or power, and thank god for it, because he'd have cost 20-23 million a season if he did.

Here's what you get for 15 million:
About 140 games of the best defense in baseball.
A gold glove, and potential platinum glove. (He's won the last 4 at the catcher position for the NL, I don't think that will change).
An All star game appearance (Last 3, no reason to assume he'll stop)
A .274 career hitter, who just nearly doubled his HR production (8 to 14)
50-65 RBIs (last 4 years)
Offensive numbers that appear to be on the rise, but that's not a guarantee.
All this wrapped up with a .309 career postseason average.
A great guy with the community, he lives out in O'Fallon IL and I've met a small number of people who have met him, and everyone says he's just a marvel. Humble, nice, sincere, good dad... you name it.

If you don't think that body of work is worth 15 million, then I guess we disagree. I'm going to look at it a different way though. If Mauer is worth 23 million a season, I think Molina is worth 15 easily. I'm glad we won't be losing him.

I can understand the sentiment about what the final line says being far different from the day to day view of a ballplayer, but that's the number 1 reason (although not the only thing keeping me from the job) on the list of "Why Alz would be a terrible manager".

I do not have a great ability to summarize performance over a year, nor the patience to put up with even a single lazy play.

All in all, I have to say I was not unhappy with Molina's play. My balk on this contract is that I'm not used to discussing Molina as an offensive anything, but his power is up, his run generation is up, his average is way up, his career avg is better than expected, and his defense is the best in baseball. I can't put that all together and then say I don't think he should get paid.