- APIAD
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Re: We aren't the only ones discussing Rasmus
forsberg_us wrote:
Assume Pujols gets $28M. The current payroll looks like this (without signing anyone):
C- Molina- $5.3M
1B- Pujols- $28M
2B- Schumaker- $2.7M
SS- Ryan- Arb 1
3B- Freese- $400K
LF- Holliday- $17M
CF- Rasmus- $400K
RF- Craig- $400K
Bench- Jay- $400K
Bench- Greene- $400K
Bench-
Bench-
Bench-
SP- Carpenter- $15M
SP- Lohse- $12.2M
SP- Wainwright- $6.7M
SP- Garcia- $400K
SP
RP- Franklin- $3.5M
RP- Miller- $2M
RP- Motte- $400K
RP- Boggs- $400K
RP- McClellan- Arb 1
RP- Hawksworth- $400K
RP-
That's a $96M payroll without Ryan's or McClellan's arbitration numbers, with 3 empty spots on the bench, an empty spot in the rotation and an empty spot in the bullpen.
If you include Westbrook ($7-9M), one new middle infielder ($4-6M), one veteran on the bench ($1-2M), give McClellan a raise to $1M and fill the remaining 3 spots with minimum salary players ($400K each), you're in the $110-115 range.
And we will still be watching a crappy lineup and Franklin closing. It only proves that spending more money doesnt fix anything. Getting Hudson and a SS that doesnt drive the team nut might be a pipe dream.
- forsberg_us
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Re: We aren't the only ones discussing Rasmus
Assume Pujols gets $28M. The current payroll looks like this (without signing anyone):
C- Molina- $5.3M
1B- Pujols- $28M
2B- Schumaker- $2.7M
SS- Ryan- Arb 1
3B- Freese- $400K
LF- Holliday- $17M
CF- Rasmus- $400K
RF- Craig- $400K
Bench- Jay- $400K
Bench- Greene- $400K
Bench-
Bench-
Bench-
SP- Carpenter- $15M
SP- Lohse- $12.2M
SP- Wainwright- $6.7M
SP- Garcia- $400K
SP
RP- Franklin- $3.5M
RP- Miller- $2M
RP- Motte- $400K
RP- Boggs- $400K
RP- McClellan- Arb 1
RP- Hawksworth- $400K
RP-
That's a $96M payroll without Ryan's or McClellan's arbitration numbers, with 3 empty spots on the bench, an empty spot in the rotation and an empty spot in the bullpen.
If you include Westbrook ($7-9M), one new middle infielder ($4-6M), one veteran on the bench ($1-2M), give McClellan a raise to $1M and fill the remaining 3 spots with minimum salary players ($400K each), you're in the $110-115 range.They're still *only* on the hook for $16 million for Pujols next year. Assuming they re-sign him, it'll be 2012 before they start paying him ARod money. I know that's kind of nit-picking, but in your scenario that puts their salary in the $98 million-$103 million range.
True, but I'm assuming that if he signs an extension they tear up the deal for this season. I could be wrong, but IMO if Pujols plays for $16M this season, he plays for another team in 2012.
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Thread Starter- forsberg_us
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Re: We aren't the only ones discussing Rasmus
They're still *only* on the hook for $16 million for Pujols next year. Assuming they re-sign him, it'll be 2012 before they start paying him ARod money. I know that's kind of nit-picking, but in your scenario that puts their salary in the $98 million-$103 million range.
i will nitpick with that opinion and say that is not how i understand contract restructur-ations to work. if they sign a new deal, expect the a-rod-like money to begin asap-aroonie.
Damn. You'd think I'd have seen KC screw this up enough that I'd read ahead before posting.
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Thread Starter- Max
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Re: We aren't the only ones discussing Rasmus
And we will still be watching a crappy lineup and Franklin closing. It only proves that spending more money doesnt fix anything.
IMO, it is precisely NOT spending money, along with NOT developing talent quickly and effectively to fill holes and roles, that has gotten the Cards in this predicament.
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Re: We aren't the only ones discussing Rasmus
OK. Here is my first stab at what SHOULD happen, not what I think they will do. the main thing is that the money just doesn't add up. A payroll bump of 15-20%, which might be unprecedented in the DeWitt era, barely keeps us even. They are going to have to keep everybody who is servicable and who earns less than they would have to pay to a replacement.
#1: knowing what i know now about rasmus, i think there is no way they trade him, unless they get a ridiculous offer, and any 'serious discussions' are just blue smoke to get other gm's to waste their time.
#2: they must figure out a way to keep Ryan. Given a chance he will earn the gold glove for each of the next 10-15 seasons, and he will be cheaper than a FA for a while, I suspect. If he won't take a Quaalude, then give it to the rest of the team.
#3: schumaker earns far too much money. we could get a decent bullpen arm for $2.7 million, and we need another left hander. not sure if we are on the hook to pay him for next year or not, but he has no place in IF and not much of a chance for the OF with jay's emergence. frankly, from what i have seen, greene would be a better 'plan A' at 2B than schumaker.
#4: if they can get the money for hudson, or someone even better at 2B, then by all means do so. i think they need to spend real money on a 2B / leadoff (with either some speed or some power) more than they need to on a fifth starter (even with knowledge that lohse, carp, and garcia all have question marks about how many innings we will get out of them). but with carp, wainwright and garcia they have a 1, 2, 3 punch that ranks with the other contenders, at least through the first 4 months. if they have to choose between 2B/leadoff or 5th starter (assuming the two will require a similar financial investment, and assuming they don't have enough money for both) they should get 2B/leadoff. we are better off hoping that lohse comes back strong, than hoping that schumaker suddenly becomes a solid second baseman and leadoff hitter.
#5: they need a second LHP in the bullpen. not sure where that comes from, but they seem to cost $2-3 million on the open market. i think i read that brian fuentes is once again available. not sure if that's still the right option though, since he has hardly been lights out. more like a left-handed franklin.
C- Molina- $5.3M
1B- Pujols- $28M
2B- Schumaker- $2.7M
SS- Ryan- Arb 1
3B- Freese- $400K
LF- Holliday- $17M
CF- Rasmus- $400K
RF- Craig- $400K
Bench- Jay- $400K
Bench- Greene- $400K
Bench-
Bench-
Bench-
SP- Carpenter- $15M
SP- Lohse- $12.2M
SP- Wainwright- $6.7M
SP- Garcia- $400K
SP
RP- Franklin- $3.5M
RP- Miller- $2M
RP- Motte- $400K
RP- Boggs- $400K
RP- McClellan- Arb 1
RP- Hawksworth- $400K
RP-
Last edited by Max (11/06/2010 5:30 pm)
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Re: We aren't the only ones discussing Rasmus
I think Jay turms out to be a 2011 flop.
Is it a given that Reyes doesnt come back. He fas his faults but I dont know if there is much better in the free agent market.
- Max
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Re: We aren't the only ones discussing Rasmus
I think Jay turms out to be a 2011 flop.
Is it a given that Reyes doesnt come back. He fas his faults but I dont know if there is much better in the free agent market.
I think Jay turns out to be Bo Hart the year after his 'breakout' season. The defense won't slump, and will remain serviceable, but MLB pitching seems to have figured him out and he'll be something like a .220 to .240 hitter with no power, like poor man's skip schumaker. I wish it were different, because it would be great for him and the team if he were an electric leadoff man, but my hunch is that won't happen.
Reyes? Which one? Flat top, Al, or who?
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Re: We aren't the only ones discussing Rasmus
I think Jay turms out to be a 2011 flop.
Is it a given that Reyes doesnt come back. He fas his faults but I dont know if there is much better in the free agent market.I think Jay turns out to be Bo Hart the year after his 'breakout' season. The defense won't slump, and will remain serviceable, but MLB pitching seems to have figured him out and he'll be something like a .220 to .240 hitter with no power, like poor man's skip schumaker. I wish it were different, because it would be great for him and the team if he were an electric leadoff man, but my hunch is that won't happen.
Reyes? Which one? Flat top, Al, or who?
Bo Hart was a career .260 hitter in the minors. His demise was inevitable. Jay is a career .300 hitter at every level he's played. Comparing Jay to Hart is like comparing apples and steak.
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Thread Starter- APIAD
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Re: We aren't the only ones discussing Rasmus
Bo Hart was a career .260 hitter in the minors. His demise was inevitable. Jay is a career .300 hitter at every level he's played. Comparing Jay to Hart is like comparing apples and steak.
I like those carmal fried apples at Cracker Barrel. They go suprisingly well with steak.
- Max
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Re: We aren't the only ones discussing Rasmus
I think Jay turms out to be a 2011 flop.
Is it a given that Reyes doesnt come back. He fas his faults but I dont know if there is much better in the free agent market.I think Jay turns out to be Bo Hart the year after his 'breakout' season. The defense won't slump, and will remain serviceable, but MLB pitching seems to have figured him out and he'll be something like a .220 to .240 hitter with no power, like poor man's skip schumaker. I wish it were different, because it would be great for him and the team if he were an electric leadoff man, but my hunch is that won't happen.
Reyes? Which one? Flat top, Al, or who?Bo Hart was a career .260 hitter in the minors. His demise was inevitable. Jay is a career .300 hitter at every level he's played. Comparing Jay to Hart is like comparing apples and steak.
What can I say? The two followed a very similar trajectory: breakout .400 BA, followed by precipitous decline. Both seem like good guys, who fans want to root for, who rarely mess up on defense and occasionally make a really nice play. I don't think they need to go out and get a right fielder, I am just agreeing with AP that I think Jay will probably disappoint anyone who still thinks that Jay will be anywhere near as impressive as he was in July and early August. Seriously, what was his BA between Aug. 15 and the end of the season that his season average could have slipped 73 points? Was it a seven week slump? Was he injured? What makes us think he'll do any better?
- APIAD
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Re: We aren't the only ones discussing Rasmus
What can I say? The two followed a very similar trajectory: breakout .400 BA, followed by precipitous decline. Both seem like good guys, who fans want to root for, who rarely mess up on defense and occasionally make a really nice play. I don't think they need to go out and get a right fielder, I am just agreeing with AP that I think Jay will probably disappoint anyone who still thinks that Jay will be anywhere near as impressive as he was in July and early August. Seriously, what was his BA between Aug. 15 and the end of the season that his season average could have slipped 73 points? Was it a seven week slump? Was he injured? What makes us think he'll do any better?
If Jay plays a good year he is as good as Skip when he was a .300 hitter. He might steal 10 bases. That isnt going to be enough on this team. The only way Jay impacts the 2011 season in a good way is if he can hold the leadoff position. He is already striking out twice as much as he walks. I am just not real excited about him because at his best he is, well average.
Last edited by APRTW (11/07/2010 12:16 pm)
- forsberg_us
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Re: We aren't the only ones discussing Rasmus
I think Jay turns out to be Bo Hart the year after his 'breakout' season. The defense won't slump, and will remain serviceable, but MLB pitching seems to have figured him out and he'll be something like a .220 to .240 hitter with no power, like poor man's skip schumaker. I wish it were different, because it would be great for him and the team if he were an electric leadoff man, but my hunch is that won't happen.
Reyes? Which one? Flat top, Al, or who?Bo Hart was a career .260 hitter in the minors. His demise was inevitable. Jay is a career .300 hitter at every level he's played. Comparing Jay to Hart is like comparing apples and steak.
What can I say? The two followed a very similar trajectory: breakout .400 BA, followed by precipitous decline. Both seem like good guys, who fans want to root for, who rarely mess up on defense and occasionally make a really nice play. I don't think they need to go out and get a right fielder, I am just agreeing with AP that I think Jay will probably disappoint anyone who still thinks that Jay will be anywhere near as impressive as he was in July and early August. Seriously, what was his BA between Aug. 15 and the end of the season that his season average could have slipped 73 points? Was it a seven week slump? Was he injured? What makes us think he'll do any better?
About .230. Which is about what Buster Posey averaged in the last 5 weeks of the season, and is 50 points more than Jason Heyward averaged in June.
Your "his average dropped 73 points" argument might have more teeth if he hadn't been hitting .373 at the time. Please tell me one person who thought that was going to continue.
Jay was a second round draft pick. Hart was a 33rd round after-thought. Hart was a .260 career minor league hitter. Jay hit over .300 at every level. Their "trajectories" couldn't be more different.
I don't expect Jay to be an impact player. I don't think he's the kind of player who starts on a good team. As Albert pointed out, he doesn't have enough speed or power. I envision him as a So Taguchi-type outfielder who will hit about .270-.280 and who can play all 3 outfield positions.
Rather than say "Bo Hart did it," please point to anything in Jay's history that suggests he'll hit .220-.240 over a full season, even as a part time player.
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Thread Starter- artie_fufkin
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Re: We aren't the only ones discussing Rasmus
Bo Hart was a career .260 hitter in the minors. His demise was inevitable. Jay is a career .300 hitter at every level he's played. Comparing Jay to Hart is like comparing apples and steak.
I like those carmal fried apples at Cracker Barrel. They go suprisingly well with steak.
There's still a Cracker Barrel open somewhere? Next to a Woolworth's?
- Max
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Re: We aren't the only ones discussing Rasmus
Rather than say "Bo Hart did it," please point to anything in Jay's history that suggests he'll hit .220-.240 over a full season, even as a part time player.
I think AP is spot on. If he is very good, he'll be like Schumaker when he bats .300 . . . a guy who could also play all three OF positions. I won't quibble with you as to whether or not his floor is quite as low as Hart's was, that wasn't my point, but if he doesn't do better than the .230 that you said he batted for the last 7 weeks then he won't have a place in the majors, of course. If you can't see the similarity between Hart and Jay, as home grown products who burst on to the scene, batted close to .400 for about a month while looking good on D, and then promptly saw their BA drop to the mid 2's, so be it.
If your ceiling for Jay is something like a young Taguchi, or not quite as good as Schumaker at his best, then at $400k/yr. he will be worth keeping around for a few years. But one thing about Taguchi, I don;t recall him making defensive lapses or taking bad routes to the ball. Jay made a few great plays, but i also recall one in RF where he got turned around 360 degrees while the ball bounced off the wall, I think. Maybe that was just bad luck but maybe it was inexperience. Taguchi got his innings because he was an experienced veteran who rarely screwed up . . . very much a La Russa bench player.
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Re: We aren't the only ones discussing Rasmus
I think AP is spot on. If he is very good, he'll be like Schumaker when he bats .300 . . . a guy who could also play all three OF positions. I won't quibble with you as to whether or not his floor is quite as low as Hart's was, that wasn't my point, but if he doesn't do better than the .230 that you said he batted for the last 7 weeks then he won't have a place in the majors, of course. If you can't see the similarity between Hart and Jay, as home grown products who burst on to the scene, batted close to .400 for about a month while looking good on D, and then promptly saw their BA drop to the mid 2's, so be it.
If your ceiling for Jay is something like a young Taguchi, or not quite as good as Schumaker at his best, then at $400k/yr. he will be worth keeping around for a few years. But one thing about Taguchi, I don;t recall him making defensive lapses or taking bad routes to the ball. Jay made a few great plays, but i also recall one in RF where he got turned around 360 degrees while the ball bounced off the wall, I think. Maybe that was just bad luck but maybe it was inexperience. Taguchi got his innings because he was an experienced veteran who rarely screwed up . . . very much a La Russa bench player.
Right field in St. Louis is as hard of a right field as there is in baseball. I have seen some awefull plays made there. We were spoiled by Ludwick.
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Re: We aren't the only ones discussing Rasmus
We were spoiled by Ludwick.
At least with the start time they have for so many games, and maybe all the time but I only know what I see on t.v., it seems to be about the worst outfield spot in baseball. At least judging from the number of horrible looking misplays I've seen by people who are supposed to be decent outfielders.
Except for sometimes diving for a catch when it wasn't necessary (and I'm not sure about that), Ludwick made it look like any other rightfield. As much as I hated to see him traded, I'm not sure it was a bad move simply because I'm not sure that his bat is no longer what we came to expect. But it may be that he just had a hard time in San Diego because he was trying too hard to prove himself. Baseball lends itself to that more than any sport I've any experience with.
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Re: We aren't the only ones discussing Rasmus
"But it may be that he just had a hard time in San Diego because he was trying too hard to prove himself. Baseball lends itself to that more than any sport I've any experience with."
You'd think he'd be the type of player who would fit that mold. That's a tough division for Ludwig. The parks in San Diego, L.A. and San Francisco are deeper than most in the power alleys, where if memory serves me correctly he hits a lot of his home runs. Instead of playing nine games there every year, he's playing 100.
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Re: We aren't the only ones discussing Rasmus
"Taguchi got his innings because he was an experienced veteran who rarely screwed up . . . very much a La Russa bench player."
Gooch got his innings because he could play all three OF positions very well, and he was a right-handed hitter on a team that had mostly left-handed hitting outfielders. And Tone liked the way he looked in the shower.