Max wrote:

I wonder if anyone has tried to quantify speed with statistics?  For example, a fairly rudimentary approach would be to adjust a player's singles such that every SB counts as a double, and every CS as an out, then recalculate OBP and SLG for a 'speed-adjusted' OPS.  By that measure, Juan Pierre, for example, would have 86 "doubles", far more than MLB leader Adrian Beltre, who had "only" 49 (give him 51 with his 2 SB).  I don't know the formula for calculating SLG, but my hunch is that 86 doubles pushes his SLG up near .500, and his OPS would then be up around .850, rather than the .657 that appears in the record books, and that would be only one way that speed approximates the value of power.  Others include the ability to score, once on base, and the ability to disrupt a pitcher's rhythm once on base (demonstrated so ably to Cardinal fans by Beltran in the 2004 playoffs). 

Bottom line, I still think that speed is being greatly undervalued in today's game.

I wouldn't have a problem with a statistic as you propose, but you significantly over-estimate the effect it would have on Pierre's numbers.

The formula for calculating slugging is pretty simple.  Total bases / at bats. 

Pierre's slugging percentage last season was .316 (206 TB /651 ABs).  If you add Pierre's 68 SB and substract his 18 CS, Pierre's slugging percentage only increases to .393 (256 TB/651 ABs).  Added to his .341 OBP, Pierre's "speed adjusted OPS" is still only .734

@Fors: thanks.  yes, i overestimated.  but nevertheless interesting, as it moves him from having a felipe lopez / skip schumaker type season to having an allen craig / david freese type season.

@TK: juan pierre has been well paid for his speed, but that anecdote does not translate into the game valuing speed, at least the way it once was.  in the days before the bullpen consumed 7 spots on the 25 man roster there was room for several more bench players, and one of them on almost all teams was a late inning base-stealing specialist, usually a young 20's guy, who would come in during the final innings of a close game if someone got on base.  nowadays there is no room for that kind of thing, but even so i'm kind of surprised by how few base-stealers the game produces.  the cardinals haven't had a bona fide threat on the base paths since i don't know when . . . .  i'm not even sure what the benchmark of a base stealer is, but when was the last time a cardinal stole 40 bases?

Last edited by Max (11/12/2010 4:48 pm)

Like most systems, the "speed adjusted OPS" would have its flaws.  For example, with a runner on first, a single and a stolen base poses no threat to bring the runner home.  A ball hit into the gap might bring in a run.  Then again, a ground rule double wouldn't score that run either, so I suppose neither system is perfect.