More Hot Stove league from Joe Strauss.

The big story, I think, is Strauss's pessimism that a deal for Pujols gets done:

What are the odds that:
1) Pujols' contract gets done before the season starts
2) Both Ryan and Shumaker start in the infield on opening day
3) Rasmus is the starting center fielder on opening day
4) The Cardinals make an "impact" trade this off-season

Joe Strauss:
1. 40 percent.
2. 25 percent.
3. 80 percent.
4. 60 percent.


Much of the chat concerns 2B and SS, which appear to be connected, as in one or the other will be upgraded, but it is unlikely to do both.  I find the level of support for Schumaker to be a bit surprising:

"[there is] a belief by many in uniform that Skip Schumaker represents a solid option at second base"

"there are many within the organizaton resistent to the idea of demoting Schumaker to a utility role."

"Schumaker still enjoys the public support of the manager and front office. There appears more an inclination to make a change at shortstop. However, the situation may change if the right player becomes available via trade. Very fluid." [Strauss might be implying Uggla here]

"TLR and the coaching staff remain Schu' backers."

"Andrew: How likely is it that a trade for a middle infielder drops soon? Heard Ryan, Jay, bullpen arm are going out for Stephen Drew. Joe Strauss: There may be momentum for a deal going down before the winter meetings. There is merit to a deal such as the one you suggest, though the Cardinals would seek another player in return as well." [I wonder why . . .  It depends on the bullpen pitcher, of course, but it seems like a fair deal for the Cardinals, already.]



And just for fun, look at this dig at Jeff Gordon: "Joe Strauss: If TipSheet says to trade Raz', the club should make him "a Cardinal for life" immediately."


http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/article_db3848ba-ed24-11df-bfcd-0017a4a78c22.html

Last edited by Max (11/11/2010 3:46 pm)

forsberg_us wrote:

I've seen a theory suggested that the Cardinals could wait until Pujols' contract expires. The 2012 1st baseman free agent class includes Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez. The theory is that the presence of the other two could drive down the bidding on Pujols.

I think it would be a monumental mistake to let Pujols become a free agent, but I wouldn't be shocked if it happens.

I agree completely.  It would make the situation almost irrecoverable.  But maybe that's what DeWitt wants.  Everything seems to indicate he is playing brinkmanship and is probably willing to cross the line.  Kudos to Pujols for maintaining his emotions throughout.  Strauss goes through a particularly ugly scenario, but the implied message that I went away with was that not resigning Pujols before the season begins could poison the talks.

Also, I think the idea that the Yankees would not be interested because they have Texiera locked in is simplistic.  I have to suspect that they have enough money in their system to pay both and find ways to get both bats in the game.  Who is their DH anyway?  is he better than Pujols or Texiera?

I would like to think that the way the negotiations with Pujols works something like this:

1. what is 'my' fair market value? let's say the answer is 30-35 for 5 years based on A-Rod's $33 million.

2. let's save some dickering and take a middling value of $33 million for 5 years.

3. i don't really need all that money, but i want some guarantees that if i give you a discount that you don't just pocket the difference. 

4. so howzabout: . . . (and the negotiations take off from there on how to do that.)

If I were a business man I would ask, why Pujols more money than he has ever earned when his peak productivity days are probably over, and injuries could cause a rapid decline at any point?  Why not use $30 million per year to get Dan Uggla AND Cliff Lee, and get any big oaf to play 1B?  Who gives a rats ass about fan loyalty?  if we win, they will forget, if we don't, Pujols won't save us.  And if I thought like that I would use a politicians sense to prevaricate and delay.  Give it time and controversy will develop that can eventually be shifted onto the shoulders of the player.

That's pretty much how i have interpreted DeWitt's handling of the situation so far, and Pujols has been almost superhuman to avoid saying anything or doing anything that allows any controversy to fall onto his shoulders.  Alternatively, we could BDW3 at his word: "Joe Strauss: BD3 made an appearance. Underscored the team's desire to get a Pujols extension done."

APRTW wrote:

Pujols has been the one who has mostly seemed uninterested in working on an extension up untill this point.  I think he wanted to see what kind of team is going to be around him before he signs. 

The question of why give Pujols more money is easy.  He has been underpaid as far as the market has gone for years.  He has made the Cardinals far more money then they will ever pay him.

I'm not going to get into an argument with you about why I would resign Pujols.  I am trying to outline the way a business man thinks, and how that seems to mirror what DeWitt has done.  And so what if my employee has worked for too little during his prime years, and now some other club will pay him more than he is worth on the back half of his career.  As a businessman I am ecstatic.

forsberg_us wrote:

I don't think Pujols is near the end of his career, but how many more years will he play at this level?  That's the business side of it.

I think there is room for compromise if they look at a Holliday type contract, in terms of length.  What was that? Five years guaranteed with 2 option years?  That would make sense.  My concern is that DeWitt will not cave in now, while Pujols's value is still sky high, and make a deal, if he thinks he might get a better deal next year.  So, imagine DeWitt is thinking he wants to pay something like $20-25 million for 5 years, and the Pujols camp is thinking market value is $30-35 million . . . they're just too far apart to compromise this season.

Now, those are wild guesses on my part, but they outline the scenario that I am concerned is playing out.  DeWitt might be able to see the wisdom in inching upward, and Pujols in inching downward, but Pujols's main concern is likely to be that the hometown discount isn't simply pocketed.  So, maybe the two parties could compromise at $27.5, but Pujols would probably want to see that the $5-7 million in hometown discount gets spent on payroll, not tucked away in DeWitt's rainy-day account, and DeWitt will be adamant that that won't happen (thinking he's already gone above his budget anyway).

We'll just have to see, but the fact that Strauss is not optimistic is cause for concern to me.

forsberg_us wrote:

If Pujols was being truthful to my friend, Pujols was willing to sign a 5 year, $125M extension before Howard got the exact same money. The Cardinals came back with something lower, the Howard deal happened and the side didn't speak again.

Pujols isn't looking for any commitments, he wants a fair deal. But he knows he's worth more than Howard, so what was fair before is no longer in play.

I suspect the deal would get done if the Cardinals would go to $28M per for 5 years. I'm just not as convinced as I used to be they'll do that.

Honestly, before the Howard deal, when Pujols was still a bit younger, I thought he was worth at least $300 million over 10 years.  So the Howard deal showed that an MVP, impact star might sign for "only" five years, and I thought DeWitt must have breathed a huge sigh of relief.  But for some reason, things aren't clicking along like ought to happen when a sport-defining, top five of all time, athlete asks for a reasonable contract that allows him to retire with the team he came up with. 

It's so awkward it is almost as though DeWitt never watched any baseball until he owned a team.

Looks like we'll know something in the next few weeks

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/article_c81cbe40-2b1c-533f-9f3a-b035b0169a34.html

Good know they are going to get the ball rolling on Pujols.  I think it is now or never.  You dont gain an advantage by letting Pujols become a free agent.

Only Drew/Upton front I dont see us overwhelming them at all.  In fact the only reason I thought it was even possible was if the DBacks simply wanted to unload there roster and start over.