Here's what I expect:

C- Molina- $14.2M
C- Cruz- $450K
1B- Craig- $500K
2B- Carpenter- $450K (don't laugh, they've been suggesting this for weeks, and I doubt they go acquire someone with Wong not that far away)
SS- Furcal- $7.5M (I'd prefer an upgrade, but I doubt they're just going to eat Furcal's money)
3B- Freese- ??? (first year arbitration eligible--maybe $2-3M)
IF- Descalso- $500K
IF- ???? (Jackson makes a lot of sense, but he must've slept with Matheny's wife, daughter or both)
OF- Holliday- $17M
OF- Jay- $550K
OF- Beltran- $13M
OF- Schumaker- $1.5M
OF- ???? (this has to be someone who represents a legitimate power threat off the bench, preferably right handed.

TOTAL OFFENSE: $58.15M (assumes Freese get $2.5M, and doesn't include backup infielder or backup outfielder

SP- Wainwright- $12M
SP- Carpenter- $12.5
SP- Westbrook- $9.75
SP- Garcia- $5.875
SP- Lynn- $550K
RP- Motte- ??? (arbitration 2 eligible, made $1.95M.  I'm guessing between $3.5 - $4.5M)
RP- Boggs- ??? (arbitration 1 eligible.  Should make less than Motte made this year, so I'm guessing about $1.5M)
RP- Mujica- ??? (arbitration 3 eligible, made $1.625M last year.  I don't think they non-tender him.  I'm guessing between $2-2.5M)
RP- Kelly- $450K
RP- Salas- $500K
RP- Scrabble- ??? (arbitration 1 eligible, coming off an awful year.  Can't imagine he makes more than $1M)
RP- ??? LOOGY

TOTAL PITCHING- $50.375M (there are a lot of assumptions in this number and they still need to sign 1 LOOGY)

TOTAL PAYROLL- approx. $108.5M

This year's payroll was about $112M.  Assuming it stays relatively static, that only leaves about $3.5M for 3 players.  They can reduce that by non-tendering someone like Mujica and going with another rookie, but I think it makes more sense to let Miller and Rosenthal start in AAA so they're ready when one of the starters is inevitably injured.  For that matter, since we don't know what to make of Garcia's situation, one of Miller, Kelly or Rosenthal could find himself in the rotation to begin the season.

They could probably bump payroll a little for the right player (better SS option).  After 2013, Beltran, Westbrook, Carpenter and Furcal all come off the books (almost $43M).  They have to make a decision on Wainwright, and a lot of their younger players will start reaching arbitration, but they also have a couple of cheap replacements in Tavares, Miller and Wong who aren't far from the big leagues.

WTF are they going to do with Jonny Gomes? Use him as a hat rack?

Marlins are looking for a manager ; anyone here interested  ?

Max wrote:

Is it just me, or does it look like key elements of the players in Fors's analysis are old and not getting better?  The younger players seem to be the sort who are an offensive plus and a defensive minus, none of the multi-tool sorts of the Edmonds, Rolen, Renteria era. 

I could easily imagine lots of time on the DL for Beltran, Furcal, and Carp.  I don't recall Molina having any length of time on the DL except for contact-induced injury, but he's getting older and what a stake through the heart it would be if he started showing his age?

It depends on what you consider "key elements" Max.

Like Artie, I don't count on Furcal.  Problem is that shortstop is the thinnest position in the organization.  Ryan Jackson was supposed to be the potential heir apparent, but somehow fell into Matheny's doghouse.  Not sure what to make of that.

Beltran and Carp could spend time on the DL, but both have immediate replacements in the minors.  If Beltran went down for any length of time, the Cardinals would have the option of promoting Oscar Tavares, their minor league player of the year and a prospect generally regarded as one of the best hitters in the minors, or promoting Matt Adams and moving Craig to RF.  Similarly, should Carp go down, the Cardinals have pitchers like Kelly, Miller and Rosenthal, all of whom were minor league starters.  Last year's 1st round pick, Michael Wacha, isn't far from the majors either.  Carlos Martinez probably won't be here until 2014, but he's another top prospect in the system.

IMO, more important for the Cardinals is that the older guys aren't under contract for excessive lengths of time.  There are exceptions (Holliday and Molina), but in the next year, Carpenter, Beltran, Furcal, Westbrook and Schumaker all have their contracts expire.  I wouldn't expect any of them back after 2013.  The two pitchers and Beltran can be replaced from within the system and Schmaker's role on the team is non-existent.  Kolten Wong should be the starting second baseman by 2014.  The most glaring hole long term is the shortstop position.

don.rob11 wrote:

Marlins are looking for a manager ; anyone here interested  ?

Fidel Castro has some free time.

Adams gives the a little outfield depth because he could handle first while Craig takes a corner outfield spot. But I 100% agree that Shane Robinson cannot be the right handed outfield option. Especially since the rest of the bench will likely be Schu, Deacalso, Cruz and either Jackson or Kozma.

I'd love to see them sign a decent reserve corner infielder (think Scott Spiezio minus the methamphetamine fueled road rage incidents) in addition to a RH outfielder with power.  But I doubt that would happen.

artie_fufkin wrote:

I have no expectations of Furcal being the shortstop on opening day.
It will either be Kozma or Jackson, depending upon how Jackson hits in Spring Training. Just as TLR had his favorites, I think MM is going to end up having his, and right now I see a tendency toward scrawny middle infielders. It could be worse. Remember, La Russa liked to watch So Taguchi in the shower.

TLR did like his middle infielder to.  Just alittle chubbier.

APIAD wrote:

I dont see anything interesting happening in the offseason.  Nothing.

Whether or not they extend Wainwright will be a hot topic.  But as far as free agency, I agree there will be little of note.

forsberg_us wrote:

It depends on what you consider "key elements" Max.

1. Starting pitcher and former Cy Young winner, 270+ IP and 27 wins in his last two healthy seasons
2. starting shortstop, leadoff hitter, and starting SS in the all-star game
3. starting RF, #3 in the BO, and starting OF in the all-star game

Together receiving $33 M, or about 30% of payroll. 

Carp wasn't much of a factor this year, but Beltran and Furcal were, and it seems like they might take Lance Berkman's place on the roster: eating up money but too injured to do much good.  If their replacements are ready to go, and ready to go at that level, then we don't lose much.  I have been pleasantly surprised by the organization's ability to fill holes from within over the past couple years.

APIAD wrote:

Looking at the free agent list I really dont see much I would be interested seeing with bird on the bat.  Mo could pull off a trade and suprise us.  The Cardinals have alot of pieces and their farm system should be highly thought off for pitching after all the young are were showcased in the playoffs.


Middle infield and top of the roation are huge worries with little solutions.

I think the rotation depth is better than it has been in a decade.  Lynn replaced Carpenter for nearly all of this season and won 18 games.  With Kelly, Miller and Rosenthal waiting in the wings, I think they're OK.  About the only guy they can't afford to lose is Wainwright, and I only say that because I assume he'll be better in 2013 than he was in 2012.

forsberg_us wrote:

APIAD wrote:

I dont see anything interesting happening in the offseason.  Nothing.

Whether or not they extend Wainwright will be a hot topic.  But as far as free agency, I agree there will be little of note.

It'll be interesting how that plays out. Will they pay for the 2009-10 Waino, or will they be playing the "we don't pay for past performance" card and negotiate from the standpoint of the post-operative 2012 version? Throw in the notion that he's a good teammate who always wants the ball, and it's going to be a tough call.

"Yeah, Wainwright returning to form and remaining healthy is a must for a good 2013.  I also agree that the roation is as good as it has been.  However I dont think it is a good playoff roation.  I see it as a roation that can compete because of depth in the regular season.  However it lacks the one two punch need to match up in the post season."

I agree there are question marks, but in some respects it's better than it could have been.  Carpenter is less of a question mark than if he wouldn't have pitched at all this season.  Would I expect the Cy Young version to return?  Of course not.  But presumably he's healthy enough to engage in a regular off-season of conditioning and be ready for Spring Training.  That's better than we could have expected a couple of months ago. 

If there's anyone I wouldn't expect much, if anything out of it's Garcia.  The last report is that he was going to rest his shoulder to try to avoid surgery and, if I remember the story correctly, try to get to the point where he felt like he did in September.  The problem I see with that is if he gets back to where he was in September, why wouldn't the October discomfort re-emerge.  Eventually he is going to have to have surgery and pitchers don't respond well to shoulder surgery.  But while I expect little from Garcia, I also think he can be replaced.  My biggest fear with Garcia is that he keeps dancing around the surgery and the organization feels the need to keep running him out there because of what they're paying him despite the fact he's getting pummelled (see Mulder, Mark).

Although Lynn wore down, he had never thrown more than 164 innings in a season, and he spent the off-season assuming he'd be in the bullpen.  I would expect (hope) that he builds off this year and fatigue is less of an issue next season.

Does any of this give you a Schilling/Johnson-like combination at the top of the rotation in 2013?  Probably not.  But I think the team will remain competetive while giving its young pitchers experience that should put them is really good shape in the not-to-distant future.