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11/15/2012 2:58 pm  #151


Re: Cardinals Hot Stove 2013

Matter of fact, lemme take that a bit further.  Opening day payroll dropped from $99M to $88M between '08 and '09.  So assuming they could afford at least the ~$100M they had been spending, that means we can guesstimate that FO pocketed at least $12M in '09, and another $7M in '10, above and beyond what they pocket anyway. 

If they choose to pay forward on their stadium, that's not a great excuse.  I think someone else might have made the argument back then that who wouldn't want to pay forward on their home loan, if their boss/customer/whoever allowed them to use the money that way?

 

11/15/2012 3:01 pm  #152


Re: Cardinals Hot Stove 2013

We've been talking baseball a long time, Fors. To the point that I literally confuse Junior Spivey for Marlon Anderson.  So, I could be confused here, but my hunch is, no.  Even at the time of deck chairs, the "all in" argument was the money that was committed indicated they were "all in" (point of fact, they raised payroll substantially the very next year).  But, more to the point, even before Holliday, before Lohse, way back when the were selling urinals, the question was whether the money was there. period.  that's the way i remember it.

 

11/15/2012 3:03 pm  #153


Re: Cardinals Hot Stove 2013

APIAD wrote:

Max wrote:

Thus, this team does not eat Adam Kennedy sized contracts.

So when did you expect them to release Kennedy?  What is your arguement or do you not even have one?  Maybe you can change it midway through or tell me what you think you ment to say.  Are these arguements fun for you?  To me it is like watching a worm after a rain on the sidewalk.  The sun comes back out and dries the side walk out.  Soon the worm if baking in the sun with no place to go.  Next thing you know it is a dried shriveled up piece of leather.  Your arguements are the worm.

My argument is that the Cardinals don't eat Adam Kennedy sized contracts.

 

11/15/2012 3:09 pm  #154


Re: Cardinals Hot Stove 2013

Max wrote:

APIAD wrote:

Max wrote:

Thus, this team does not eat Adam Kennedy sized contracts.

So when did you expect them to release Kennedy?  What is your arguement or do you not even have one?  Maybe you can change it midway through or tell me what you think you ment to say.  Are these arguements fun for you?  To me it is like watching a worm after a rain on the sidewalk.  The sun comes back out and dries the side walk out.  Soon the worm if baking in the sun with no place to go.  Next thing you know it is a dried shriveled up piece of leather.  Your arguements are the worm.

My argument is that the Cardinals don't eat Adam Kennedy sized contracts.

And your right because to do so would be stupid.  You must be agreeing with the front office.  They also dont eat Holliday size contracts or Craig sized contracts.  They are not going to just up and release Lynn after an all star year.  I high doubt they bulldoze over the new ballpark either.

 

11/15/2012 3:24 pm  #155


Re: Cardinals Hot Stove 2013

That really depends, AP.  Let's say Kennedy is due $10 M over 3 years and the team notices right away there's a problem.  Some investigation turns up evidence that Kennedy is having marital problems, which may be affecting his play.  Opening day payroll was $90M, and the next season it was $99M, so let's assume they had $9M to play with.  In 2007, we finished 78-84, 7 games back with a -104 run differential.  2B was a clear minus, offensively, compared to league average.  If an option was there, would the team have been better off committing some or all of that $9M to be competitive in 2007?  People like KC were doing the math back then, and the difference in revenue is huge.  That is, DeWitt stood to earn much more money if there was a way to economically fix the problem at 2B (and whatever else ailed them in '07 . . . no Carpenter?).

Fors's point has long been: "OK, even if I concede the point, how would you have spent the money?"  To that I obviously do not have a good answer.  It is possible that no good options were available.  It is also possible that the team chose to play it cheaply.

 

11/15/2012 3:53 pm  #156


Re: Cardinals Hot Stove 2013

Max there are other reasons beyond money that weigh against the kind of suggestion you're making. 

These players are human.  They aren't cards in a strat-o-matic game or players on your fantasy roster.  Adam Kennedy was someone who came up through the Cardinals system and had likely played with people on the roster.  He was drafted in 1997, probably by Jocketty and reached the majors in 1999 playing for Larussa.

So now he reaches free agency and sits down with his agent and the Cardinals front office and they reach an agreement on a 3 year contract.  I'll assume that Adam Kennedy didn't have enough leverage to get a no-trade clause, so he has no guarantee he'll stay in St. Louis for 3 years, but there's some expectation that might be the case.

So Kennedy reports to Spring Training.  In the meantime his marriage has hit the skids and his head is all out of whack.  Never mind that he'd hit .300 twice in the past 5 seasons, and never below .266 in a full season.  In your hypothetical, somehow the Cardinals become convinced based on mental state and the 50 or so at bats a veteran gets during Spring Training that Kennedy is done.

So your solution is to release Kennedy or bring in a different option.  As to the latter, by the time you reach the end of Spring Training there probably isn't much available, so that isn't an ideal option.  As to the former, assume you do that.  What free agent ever signs with your team in the future?  Undoubtedly Jocketty and Larussa sat down with Kennedy and his agent, talked about the revolving door at 2B from 2004 through 2006, sold him on the idea that for at least the next 3 years the job was his.  You're suggesting that the team could somehow cut ties and maintain its credibility around the league or with its own players for that matter?

If you believe this, look no further than what's going on in Miami.  By all accounts, baseball people have strongly suggested that Miami got good return on the trades they've made.  Does anyone seem to care?

I realize we're talking about one player, and that player happens to be Adam Kennedy.  But you can't treat players like a pez dispenser that you happen to have 5 others in the same style/color at home.

You bring in a player on a minor league deal, there's an understanding that player may never make the team.  You bring in Junior Spivey on a 1 year, $1M deal, there's some understanding that it's more of a "make good" deal.  You bring in an established starter on a 3 year deal and send him packing after Spring Training, you better be ready to overpay the next time you try to convince a free agent (or his agent) to sit down with you and discuss terms.

 

11/15/2012 4:08 pm  #157


Re: Cardinals Hot Stove 2013

"I remember a lot of discussion about all in, deck chairs and where would it be spent."

Don't forget the low-hanging fruit.

 

11/15/2012 4:09 pm  #158


Re: Cardinals Hot Stove 2013

That's a cogent argument, one that did not surface before: Adam Kennedy is a human being, for the sake of the organization's ability to sign FAs, we need to give him a chance.  Thus, 2007 goes down the pooper.  Or, what better time to prove our loyalty to a FA than 2007, when our starting rotation was so bad we were destined for the pooper anyway? 

On the other hand, people skills go a long way: Adam, we know you're having some problems off the field, and with your on-field numbers being down, people in this business could make a link and think some awfully bad things about you if this keeps up.  We don't want that to happen to you.  Here's what we want to do.  We want to use the trade deadline to find a 2-month rental to add some punch at 2B until the end of the season.  That will take some pressure off of you, and maybe you'll find some roles to really help out.  Then by next offseason, the new guy will be off the book and you hopefully you'll have the rest of your life settled, and we'll get back to the starting point.  Let's make a win-win out of this, Adam.

Bottom line: When I see failings and faults, I am going to examine the top at least as thoroughly as a I examine the bottom.  It's not always the FO that is to blame, and players certainly are culpable.  But are we supposed to fault A-Ron Miles for being a lawn gnome, or the FO for hiring a lawn gnome to do a man's job?

 

11/15/2012 4:14 pm  #159


Re: Cardinals Hot Stove 2013

artie_fufkin wrote:

"I remember a lot of discussion about all in, deck chairs and where would it be spent."

Don't forget the low-hanging fruit.

and dry powder.  Methinks had he not been putting his money into dry powder there would have been more for payroll.

But for the record, I think the low hanging fruit and dry powder statements came the offseason prior to signing Holliday.  It would not have made much sense to assert that afterwards, or if he had, it would have ended our argument as to whether they had further resources to commit, a point I was ridiculed for at the time.

 

11/15/2012 4:15 pm  #160


Re: Cardinals Hot Stove 2013

"Anderson $600k/1.
     -Fuck it, Womack is available.  Let's try him.  We'll find a support role for Anderson

Spivey $1M/1
     -Are you fucking kidding me?  A lawn gnome would be better!  Send Jr. to the minors.

Kennedy $10M/3
     -Well, he ain't great but . . . meh, let's see if this Kennedy kid improves."

Well, in that context it's kind of like buying a used car. You buy a Pinto for 600 bucks and it craps the bed after a month, you have someone tow it to the junkyard. You buy a Mustang for a couple thousand and it craps the bed, maybe you throw some money into repairs to see if you can salvage another year or two. But at some point you ultimately come to the realization that you're throwing good money into a bad car and cut your losses.
Kennedy may not have been a Mustang. Maybe he was more like a Galaxy. Reliable once, but not a lot of tread left on the tires. Anderson and Womack were Tauruses. Practical in their role, but certainly nothing sexy. Spivey was a Pinto. In a lousy color. Like lime green or piss yellow.

 

11/15/2012 4:21 pm  #161


Re: Cardinals Hot Stove 2013

She looks better in the photo on the right than what I've seen (albeit briefly) of her on Survivor.
But can you elaborate your comment? Are you saying she was hot then and she's still hot now, or she's gone from a 1-bagger to a 2-bagger?

 

11/15/2012 4:28 pm  #162


Re: Cardinals Hot Stove 2013

APIAD wrote:

Max wrote:

Thus, this team does not eat Adam Kennedy sized contracts.

So when did you expect them to release Kennedy?  What is your arguement or do you not even have one?  Maybe you can change it midway through or tell me what you think you ment to say.  Are these arguements fun for you?  To me it is like watching a worm after a rain on the sidewalk.  The sun comes back out and dries the side walk out.  Soon the worm if baking in the sun with no place to go.  Next thing you know it is a dried shriveled up piece of leather.  Your arguements are the worm.

I think you are being a bit over the top AP.  This was what started it all: "This team does not eat Adam Kennedy sized mistakes."

"So when did you expect them to release Kennedy?"

Dunno, "How long did we keep trotting Junior Spivey out there after it was clear he wasn't what was needed?"

"Maybe you can change it midway through or tell me what you think you ment to say. "

I don't think I changed anything midway.  Midway I used the expression "from Day one", which is sort of the case with Spivey.  If you object to that as an exaggeration or figure of speech, I retract it.  But keep in mind that entered midway. 

So, at the end of the day, the Cards did eat a Junior Spivey sized mistake.  Some teams eat much larger mistakes.  There's a sliding scale and all teams are different, indeed, one could argue that each individual circumstance is unique, and there is some merit to that.  In 2007 the Cards trotted Adam Kennedy and K-I-P Wells a lot longer than I cared to watch them.  But perhaps one of the issues, AP, is that buried within my argument is the assertion that Kennedy (and Wells) were mistakes.  Bad signings.  Furthermore, those of us who have been here a long time know that I went through a mental switch after the Jocketty firing and prior to the Holliday signing, and I began to see the Cards FO more negatively, whereas prior to that I had been a huge supporter.  So I think that my arguments, whether it be about Pujols or Kennedy, run particularly foul of those who maintain strong support for the FO.

 

11/15/2012 4:33 pm  #163


Re: Cardinals Hot Stove 2013

artie_fufkin wrote:

"Anderson $600k/1.
     -Fuck it, Womack is available.  Let's try him.  We'll find a support role for Anderson

Spivey $1M/1
     -Are you fucking kidding me?  A lawn gnome would be better!  Send Jr. to the minors.

Kennedy $10M/3
     -Well, he ain't great but . . . meh, let's see if this Kennedy kid improves."

Well, in that context it's kind of like buying a used car. You buy a Pinto for 600 bucks and it craps the bed after a month, you have someone tow it to the junkyard. You buy a Mustang for a couple thousand and it craps the bed, maybe you throw some money into repairs to see if you can salvage another year or two. But at some point you ultimately come to the realization that you're throwing good money into a bad car and cut your losses.
Kennedy may not have been a Mustang. Maybe he was more like a Galaxy. Reliable once, but not a lot of tread left on the tires. Anderson and Womack were Tauruses. Practical in their role, but certainly nothing sexy. Spivey was a Pinto. In a lousy color. Like lime green or piss yellow.

Exactly.  And I had friends who would buy a new Caddy every two years, and that was back when they were TERRIBLE cars that only lasted two years.  Each team has a different capacity to admit to buyer's remorse.  The Yankees and Red Sox were in a phase when they seemed capable of eating a Manny Ramirez sized contract, if need be.  The issue at the time, as I recall it, was did the Cards have the resources to fix it?  (I think they did)  The issue in my mind has grown, and continues to be, do they have the institutional fortitude to admit to a mistake (I suspect they don't)?

Last edited by Max (11/15/2012 4:42 pm)

 

11/15/2012 5:23 pm  #164


Re: Cardinals Hot Stove 2013

Neither really, just that she doesn't look that different.  I guess I never put Blair Warner in the "hot" category.  Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't have kicked her out of the sack, but that show always had sort of a weird vibe.  You sort of half expected to learn that their house was the site of regular lesbian trysts.  Come to think of it, if the show had gone with that angle, Blair would have been much hotter.

I guess all I was saying was that as someone who had watched the show, I think if I happened to encounter her on the street, I probably would have recognized her.  Considering its been something like 30 years since that show aired, there's something to be said for that.  I'm not sure I'd want to see what the rest of them look like these days.

 

11/15/2012 5:29 pm  #165


Re: Cardinals Hot Stove 2013

Max wrote:

That's a cogent argument, one that did not surface before: Adam Kennedy is a human being, for the sake of the organization's ability to sign FAs, we need to give him a chance.  Thus, 2007 goes down the pooper.  Or, what better time to prove our loyalty to a FA than 2007, when our starting rotation was so bad we were destined for the pooper anyway? 

On the other hand, people skills go a long way: Adam, we know you're having some problems off the field, and with your on-field numbers being down, people in this business could make a link and think some awfully bad things about you if this keeps up.  We don't want that to happen to you.  Here's what we want to do.  We want to use the trade deadline to find a 2-month rental to add some punch at 2B until the end of the season.  That will take some pressure off of you, and maybe you'll find some roles to really help out.  Then by next offseason, the new guy will be off the book and you hopefully you'll have the rest of your life settled, and we'll get back to the starting point.  Let's make a win-win out of this, Adam.

Bottom line: When I see failings and faults, I am going to examine the top at least as thoroughly as a I examine the bottom.  It's not always the FO that is to blame, and players certainly are culpable.  But are we supposed to fault A-Ron Miles for being a lawn gnome, or the FO for hiring a lawn gnome to do a man's job?

Max,

If you haven't done so already, you should read Larussa's new book.  There's a fairly lengthy discussion about the personal relationships Larussa attempted to build with players and how he believes those relationships are necessary for team success. 

I suspect when Adam Kennedy first came aboard, Larussa held him in pretty high regard--veteran player, won a ring with the Angels in 2002.  This is just my opinion, but I don't think there's a snowball's chance in hell Larussa would have considered casting a player like Kennedy aside after a bad year, let alone a bad month.  I also suspect that as Kennedy started to grouse about things like playing time or being asked to play positions other than second base, he spent all of his "Larussa Bucks," and by the end of season 2, Larussa no longer cared if Kennedy was part of the team or not.

Ironically, the position flexibility that first started with Larussa is what has allowed Kennedy to remain in baseball for as long as he has.

 

11/15/2012 6:12 pm  #166


Re: Cardinals Hot Stove 2013

Tootie:

http://www.fanpix.net/gallery/kim-fields-pictures.htm

Jo:

http://www.fanpix.net/picture-gallery/nancy-mckeon-picture-10244275.htm

Natalie:

http://www.fanpix.net/picture-gallery/mindy-cohn-picture-20413341.htm

I wasn't a Blair guy either. The first time I watched the show, I had just come back from ASU after dumping a chick partly because she had that southwestern accent and used to pronounce her 'e'  like an 'i' (like "pincil" instead of "pencil" or "Tixas" instead of "Texas") and it was like Blair was her driving me crazy with that accent all over again.
Jim Nantz does the same thing "The Bingals lead Dinver, 34-31 ..." and it still drives me nuts.

 

11/15/2012 6:32 pm  #167


Re: Cardinals Hot Stove 2013

My recollection was the "all in" comment was said when they acquired Holliday, not when they signed him to his current deal.

 

11/15/2012 6:37 pm  #168


Re: Cardinals Hot Stove 2013

I also recall Kennedy groused about playing time and asked to be traded after the 2008 season. The Cardinals released him when they were unable to find a taker for a second baseman with an OPS under .700 who couldn't beat out Aaron Miles.

 

11/15/2012 7:23 pm  #169


Re: Cardinals Hot Stove 2013

Max wrote:

That really depends, AP.  Let's say Kennedy is due $10 M over 3 years and the team notices right away there's a problem.  Some investigation turns up evidence that Kennedy is having marital problems, which may be affecting his play.  Opening day payroll was $90M, and the next season it was $99M, so let's assume they had $9M to play with.  In 2007, we finished 78-84, 7 games back with a -104 run differential.  2B was a clear minus, offensively, compared to league average.  If an option was there, would the team have been better off committing some or all of that $9M to be competitive in 2007?  People like KC were doing the math back then, and the difference in revenue is huge.  That is, DeWitt stood to earn much more money if there was a way to economically fix the problem at 2B (and whatever else ailed them in '07 . . . no Carpenter?).

Fors's point has long been: "OK, even if I concede the point, how would you have spent the money?"  To that I obviously do not have a good answer.  It is possible that no good options were available.  It is also possible that the team chose to play it cheaply.

How does any of that have anything to do with them releasing Kennedy.  That opens up a roster space but doesnt create more money.  And clearly they wouldnt have singed Kennedy to start with if they didnt think he was the best option.  You still havent told me one thing, when should they have released him?  After a week?  A month?  You know players get off to slow start.  they also have bad years.  Why would a club burn a contract everytime someone has a poor year?

 

11/15/2012 7:41 pm  #170


Re: Cardinals Hot Stove 2013

forsberg_us wrote:

You sort of half expected to learn that their house was the site of regular lesbian trysts.  Come to think of it, if the show had gone with that angle, Blair would have been much hotter.

rec.

 

11/15/2012 7:43 pm  #171


Re: Cardinals Hot Stove 2013

forsberg_us wrote:

I guess all I was saying was that as someone who had watched the show, I think if I happened to encounter her on the street, I probably would have recognized her.

not sure why this reminds me, but my nephew/cousin's schoolhood friend is dating Jennifer Anniston.

 

11/15/2012 7:44 pm  #172


Re: Cardinals Hot Stove 2013

Max wrote:

APIAD wrote:

Max wrote:

Thus, this team does not eat Adam Kennedy sized contracts.

So when did you expect them to release Kennedy?  What is your arguement or do you not even have one?  Maybe you can change it midway through or tell me what you think you ment to say.  Are these arguements fun for you?  To me it is like watching a worm after a rain on the sidewalk.  The sun comes back out and dries the side walk out.  Soon the worm if baking in the sun with no place to go.  Next thing you know it is a dried shriveled up piece of leather.  Your arguements are the worm.

I think you are being a bit over the top AP.  This was what started it all: "This team does not eat Adam Kennedy sized mistakes."

"So when did you expect them to release Kennedy?"

Dunno, "How long did we keep trotting Junior Spivey out there after it was clear he wasn't what was needed?"

"Maybe you can change it midway through or tell me what you think you ment to say. "

I don't think I changed anything midway.  Midway I used the expression "from Day one", which is sort of the case with Spivey.  If you object to that as an exaggeration or figure of speech, I retract it.  But keep in mind that entered midway. 

So, at the end of the day, the Cards did eat a Junior Spivey sized mistake.  Some teams eat much larger mistakes.  There's a sliding scale and all teams are different, indeed, one could argue that each individual circumstance is unique, and there is some merit to that.  In 2007 the Cards trotted Adam Kennedy and K-I-P Wells a lot longer than I cared to watch them.  But perhaps one of the issues, AP, is that buried within my argument is the assertion that Kennedy (and Wells) were mistakes.  Bad signings.  Furthermore, those of us who have been here a long time know that I went through a mental switch after the Jocketty firing and prior to the Holliday signing, and I began to see the Cards FO more negatively, whereas prior to that I had been a huge supporter.  So I think that my arguments, whether it be about Pujols or Kennedy, run particularly foul of those who maintain strong support for the FO.

Kennedy was a 3 year contract and Spivey was a one year contract.  The Cardinals were invested in Kennedy deeper and needed to find out if it was just going to be one bad year.  Year two was better.  By then the fan base had turned on him and I believe it was a strong finish that made his numbers respectible.  Still if he wouldnt have had a bad year one and showed up to winter warmup he would have been there for his third year.  Hell if TLR didnt have his stroke he would have been there for a third year.  He went on to have a fine 2009.  The Cardinals likely would have been better off keeping him if he could have produced like that in STL.  It would have been better then Skip costing them a run a game.  The signing of Kennedy wasnt a mistake.  Most people were happy because he was supposed to be better then crap we had been seeing.  It wasnt like he was being a horrible person off the field.  He was having women issues.  Hell everyone has those.  It is funny you make this arguement using the one guy the Cardinals did indeed eat.  well it hasnt even been just one.  For stated several player they ate.  I also think they had to eat the final year of Spizio's contract.

 

11/15/2012 7:48 pm  #173


Re: Cardinals Hot Stove 2013

forsberg_us wrote:

If you haven't done so already, you should read Larussa's new book.  There's a fairly lengthy discussion about the personal relationships Larussa attempted to build with players and how he believes those relationships are necessary for team success.

I read TK's posts and put a hold on it at my library.  I finished the Chuck Thompson book and decided it's not worth working myself up with books like that again, for the time being anyway, and am reading a biography of Margaret Mead I happened to have lying around, until the LaRussa book becomes available. 

Anyway, this is all taking the Kennedy argument in a different direction, which is fair.  Nevertheless, I tend to think that personal factors aside, somewhere beneath $10/3 is the dividing line where the Cards simply will not admit a mistake and try other options.  All teams have their limits, that seems to be above the Card's threshold.

 

11/15/2012 7:51 pm  #174


Re: Cardinals Hot Stove 2013

artie_fufkin wrote:

My recollection was the "all in" comment was said when they acquired Holliday, not when they signed him to his current deal.

that was one of our comments, and i don't recall for sure.  i thought it was with the signing.  the deck chairs was my argument and it definitely came after the signing, in response to people making the argument that the club was making some impressive new commitment of funds. 

the dry powder and low hanging fruit both came before that season, i think.

 

11/15/2012 7:51 pm  #175


Re: Cardinals Hot Stove 2013

I dont think anyone was calling for Kennedy to be released year one.  He sucked but nobody considered releasing him as an option.  It suprised me when it happend before his final season.

 

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