Max wrote:

Bill James.  Sorry.  Brain freeze.  Slowly working my way back into this sports talk thing.

I knew you meant Bill James.
You've not seen the BCS rankings? You need to have won a Fields Medal to figure those out.

Last edited by artie_fufkin (11/19/2012 1:11 pm)

These are the six designated "rankers" whose numbers go into the computer model. Of course, the computer rank only counts for one-third of the overall BCS ranking, which also incorporates the Harris Poll and the coaches poll.
Each of the six entities from which the computer ranking is culled has its own set of standards and value characteristics, meaning an argument about Oregon losing on a field goal in overtime being not necessarily "worse" than Georgia being drubbed by four touchdowns is subject to six different interpretations, the critieria for which is unknown to the public.

Jeff Anderson-Chris Hester
Rates D1A teams only. Strength of schedule factors in conference strength of opponents, which is based on how conference teams do in non-conference play. It also appears to give weight to how a team performs against better opposition. Does consider game location, but not the date. Does not publish until after 5th week.

Richard Billingsley
Rates D1A teams only. Carries a team's rank over from previous year and values early part of season more highly. Also gives slight emphasis to recent performance. If a team does not play, its raw rating (as opposed to ranking) does not change that week. If a team wins, it goes up and if it loses, with rare exception, it goes down. Has a detailed explanation on his site, although he does not provide his formula. Game location given "very minor" consideration.

Wes Colley
Rates D1A teams only, plus provisional 1A teams (like Troy St in 2001). His ratings only consider games between I-A opponents, although in 2007, he made a change to account for games against I-AA foes by grouping I-AA teams and treating the groups like a I-A team. Guidelines for forming those groups are listed on his site, but he doesn't always follow them precisely. Publishes his formula on his website, but you need to be a math geek to understand it. Publishes ratings at the beginning of the season, but uses no prior season data. Everyone starts at 0.5. Game location and date are not considered.

Kenneth Massey
Rates all NCAA and NAIA teams. Starts everyone at zero and starts publishing at the beginning of the season. The formula does not consider homefield advantage or game date. Massey provides a description of his MOV based system on his site, but we can't be sure how much, if any, of that description applies to his BCS ratings.

Jeff Sagarin
Rates all DI teams, both IA and IAA. The BCS will not be using the ratings Sagarin is famous for, but rather a rating system he calls "Elo Chess," which does not include MOV. Presumably, he named it "Elo Chess" because it is based on the rating system used for chess players developed by Arpad Elo. Home field advantage is considered.

Peter Wolfe
Rates all NCAA and NAIA teams. Does not publish rankings until the week of the first release. Rankings based on actual outcome vs probability of that outcome occurring. Game location is a factor.

Thanks.  Briefly, none of the methods look to me as though they even try to approach a Jamesian sabremetric approach.  And to think, that stuff only counts for 1/3, with fully two thirds being the same old BS.

Ultimately, I suppose I like the idea of consolidating into a reasonable number of superconferences, allowing them each to hold playoffs for a conference championship, then a regional playoff among conference would be needed to whittle it down to two teams.  It might not produce statistically the best football team, but it will be how it gets done in virtually every other sport.  And I don't care that two great teams might face each other in a subfinal, that also happens in almost every other sport. 

As it is, they're trying to do it like tennis, where the US Open is decided in a one game playoff/final played between the two highest "ranked" teams.  The old free for all bowl system, with all its tradition was better than this.

Buckeyes are still undefeated.  Why not Notre Dame vs. Ohio St.?

Max wrote:

Buckeyes are still undefeated.  Why not Notre Dame vs. Ohio St.?

Ohio State is under NCAA sanctions from the Jim Tressell/Terrell Pryor era.  They aren't eligible.

Max wrote:

Buckeyes are still undefeated.  Why not Notre Dame vs. Ohio St.?

Because people from Ohio State aren't even smart enough to pull off a scam involving tattoos.

forsberg_us wrote:

Max wrote:

Buckeyes are still undefeated.  Why not Notre Dame vs. Ohio St.?

Ohio State is under NCAA sanctions from the Jim Tressell/Terrell Pryor era.  They aren't eligible.

Interesting.  A team under sanctions remains competitive to be a BCS contender, except for their sanction.

How long does it last?

Ohio State is barred from post-season play this season and is on probation for the next two seasons. They also lose three scholarships this year and each of the next two years.

Max wrote:

forsberg_us wrote:

Max wrote:

Buckeyes are still undefeated.  Why not Notre Dame vs. Ohio St.?

Ohio State is under NCAA sanctions from the Jim Tressell/Terrell Pryor era.  They aren't eligible.

Interesting.  A team under sanctions remains competitive to be a BCS contender, except for their sanction.

How long does it last?

Depends on when the NCAA catches up to Urban Meyer.

Well Kudos to the Irish for beating USC, I didn't think they would, but am glad they did since Florida State didn't beat Florida, and UCLA couldn't handle Stanford.

That meant Oregon had no shot, and I had no intention of watching another SEC vs SEC National Championship game.

Hopefully Notre Dame beats Alabama/Georgia, mostly because I'm tired of the SEC winning every damned year.

alz wrote:

Well Kudos to the Irish for beating USC, I didn't think they would, but am glad they did since Florida State didn't beat Florida, and UCLA couldn't handle Stanford.

That meant Oregon had no shot, and I had no intention of watching another SEC vs SEC National Championship game.

Hopefully Notre Dame beats Alabama/Georgia, mostly because I'm tired of the SEC winning every damned year.

Screw Notre Dame. I'd root against those sanctimonious hypocrites if they were playing a band of Somali pirates. The worst part is I had to hold my nose and hope a team coached by Lane Kiffin beat them on Saturday, and of course that didn't happen because Lane Kiffin couldn't coach a Pop Warner team.
Has a team that was picked number one in the pre-season polls ever ended up with a 7-5 record and playing in the friggin' American Standard Toilet Bowl or whatever meaningless game USC is going to play to close out this season?
They've got the two best receivers in the Bowl Subdivision, a quarterback who will get picked in the top 10 of next year's NFL draft, a defensive back who will go in the first round and a defensive end who will go in the first round if he declares. It takes a special brand of incompetence to screw up a team with as much talent as USC had this year.

"Screw Notre Dame. I'd root against those sanctimonious hypocrites if they were playing a band of Somali pirates."

Aye.  My boss is a domer.  It's bad enough that I'm going to have to listen to him gloat over their appearance in the NCG.  If they win, we'll never hear the end of it.

Our newest hire is an Alabama alum and a huge college football fan.  I should ask if she has a confederate flag bumper sticker.

http://www.greensfelder.com/camille-p-toney.aspx

"I'm guessing no. I see she did her undergrad at UCLA. Want to know a good way to get in good with her right away? Ask her if she went to UCLA because she couldn't get in to USC."

Be nice. She's actually one of your kind. She went to UCLA on a college soccer scholarship.

http://www.uclabruins.com/sports/w-soccer/mtt/toney_camille00.html

Looking a little more closely at the UCLA site, it looks like her team lost the 2004 NCAA Championship to Notre Dame. Ugh, she better not let that piece of info spread around the department.

Last edited by forsberg_us (11/26/2012 4:18 pm)