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12/17/2012 1:41 pm  #151


Re: Off-season GC

artie_fufkin wrote:

"Also, I did not watch this season, but to hear people on this board, it sounds like he pissed off Matheny."

I don't know if he pissed off Matheny, or there were other people Matheny preferred to have out there. Carpenter essentially took away Skip's outfield role, and Descalso took away his infield role. I suppose you can make an argument that after Furcal got hurt, Scal could have moved to short and Skip could have played second, but that would have left the Cardinals with some serious defensive issues on the right side of the infield, and it would have crowded the lineup with left-handed hitters without a lot of power.

I believe Matheny made several comments how he wish he could work Skip in more.  Skip is still a usefull outfielder but he doesnt offer more then the Cardinals everyday players.  If one of them needed a break Carp was the guy filling that need.  Nothing against Skip but as you started his skill set wasnt needed on the Cardinals.

 

12/17/2012 3:25 pm  #152


Re: Off-season GC

artie_fufkin wrote:

Larry Bowa of all people issued some insightful commentary about pitching on MLBN this weekend. There are pitchers who are good for 5-6 innings, but if you stay close, they'll find a way to lose the game. Bowa didn't come right out and say Sanchez is one of those guys, but they were talking about the Tigers signing him at the time.

Well, it's hard to argue logic with a guy who conspired with Ed Wade to win a whopping 86 games twice in four seasons, but I'd like to see how many times Anibal Sanchez actually let the game get away in the seventh inning or later because he didn't understand the fundamentals of winning enough to retire batters a third or fourth time through the order. He needs to actually back this up, or I'll just go back to not caring what Bowa says about anything.

And Fors, my best guess for why Sanchez received $80 million is simply because pitching is at such a ridiculous premium right now that teams are forced to pay through the nose. I seriously doubted that Kyle Lohse would get anywhere near $13 million in his next contract, but some GM is going to be desperate to find 190 dependable innings, even if those innings are going to suck two years from now.

 

12/17/2012 3:35 pm  #153


Re: Off-season GC

IMO, the Quality Start statistic has grossly expanded the pool of pitchers considered good.  6 innings and 3 ER (otherwise known as a 4.50 ERA) is suddenly considered a "quality" start.  Of course, the people who came up with the statistic failed to take into account that the starter has left the game in the hands of at least 3 relief pitchers and with an ERA well above league average (last year's MLB ERA was 4.01).

You want to talk about meaningless stats, the quality start has to be near the top of the list.

     Thread Starter
 

12/17/2012 3:41 pm  #154


Re: Off-season GC

Yeah, I definitely agree. Kyle Lohse probably doesn't, though. And neither does his wife.

 

12/17/2012 3:47 pm  #155


Re: Off-season GC

"Well, it's hard to argue logic with a guy who conspired with Ed Wade to win a whopping 86 games twice in four seasons, but I'd like to see how many times Anibal Sanchez actually let the game get away in the seventh inning or later because he didn't understand the fundamentals of winning enough to retire batters a third or fourth time through the order."

Good points, which is probably why Bowa didn't come right out and call Sanchez a pansy. The gist of his comment was from the perspective of being in the dugout, probably when he was a coach with the Dodgers and Sanchez was pitching against them with the Marlins.

 

12/17/2012 3:55 pm  #156


Re: Off-season GC

"You want to talk about meaningless stats, the quality start has to be near the top of the list."

I'd say it's at the top. Even Hrabosky can do math well enough to figure out a 4.50 ERA isn't anything special.
Fielding percentage is pretty useless. Cal Ripken's .999 career fielding percentage looks good until you consider you can't make an error on a ball you don't get to.
And I'm not a big fan of holds. A loogy whose BAA lefties is .118 comes in, retires one left-handed batter whose BA is .167 against lefties and the pitcher gets a "hold." Granted, there aren't a lot of people out there who go around saying "Jesse Orosco should be in the Hall of Fame because he led the league in holds seven times," but it's kind of one of those stats that's only there for the sake of a statistic.

 

12/17/2012 4:10 pm  #157


Re: Off-season GC

artie_fufkin wrote:

"Also, I did not watch this season, but to hear people on this board, it sounds like he pissed off Matheny."

I don't know if he pissed off Matheny, or there were other people Matheny preferred to have out there. Carpenter essentially took away Skip's outfield role, and Descalso took away his infield role. I suppose you can make an argument that after Furcal got hurt, Scal could have moved to short and Skip could have played second, but that would have left the Cardinals with some serious defensive issues on the right side of the infield, and it would have crowded the lineup with left-handed hitters without a lot of power.

Skip certainly fell out of favor, but I don't think it's anything he did as much as it was the Cardinals happened to get hot when Descalso and Kozma were the middle infield combination and, unlike Larussa, Matheny was more likely to stick with a set lineup.

Going forward, as much as anything, Schumaker's problem was he was left handed.  The Cardinals need a RH hitter who can play CF and give Jay the occasional day off.  Until they sign a better option, that's Shane Robinson.  Descalso offers a LH infield bat, and Carpenter a LH corner outfield bat.  Skips biggest problem was that he didn't offer anything the Cardinals didn't already have.

The way salaries are going, I don't even think the $1.5M price tag was that big of a deal.  The average MLB salary is something like $3.3M.  Skip was making less than half of that.  But Skip was buried on their depth chart, so it made sense for him to leave.

As of right now, who's on the bench (assume Descalso is the starting 2B)?  Wigginton, M. Carpenter, Cruz and ???  Kozma and Robinson??

     Thread Starter
 

12/17/2012 6:04 pm  #158


Re: Off-season GC

Elsewhere:

- Mets and Blue Jays complete their trade involving R.A. Dickey for prospect Travis D'Arnaud.  There are other players also involved.  Blue Jays give Dickey a 2 year, $25M extension.

- Red Sox sign Stephen Drew to a 1 year, $9.5M salary.  You'd have thought the Red Sox would have had enough of dealing with the Drew family, but I guess not.

- Astros sign Carlos Pena to a 1 year, $2.9M contract making Pena the current highest paid player on Houston's roster.

     Thread Starter
 

12/18/2012 12:31 am  #159


Re: Off-season GC

Drew seems alittle pricey.  I was thinking 6 million would be a good price but I thought he would get more then one year.

 

12/18/2012 12:34 am  #160


Re: Off-season GC

tkihshbt wrote:

And Fors, my best guess for why Sanchez received $80 million is simply because pitching is at such a ridiculous premium right now that teams are forced to pay through the nose. I seriously doubted that Kyle Lohse would get anywhere near $13 million in his next contract, but some GM is going to be desperate to find 190 dependable innings, even if those innings are going to suck two years from now.

I agree with that.  Teams that need starting pitching have very few options right now.  If they dont have a farm system they are really screwed.  They can either over pay for one of the better pitchers on the market or call Cement-head and see what he is up to.  Second tier free agent pitcher are first tier this year.

 

12/18/2012 4:16 pm  #161


Re: Off-season GC

Actually, anyone who needs pitching should be calling the Dodgers.  A friend just pointed out that the Dodgers currently have 8 starters under contract for next year.

Kershaw- $11M
Greinke- $19M
Ryu- $3.33M
Beckett- $17M (plus $17M in 2014)
Billingsley- $11M (plus $12M in 2014)
Lilly- $13.1M
Harang- $7M (plus a 2014 mutual option)
Capuano- $6M (plus a 2014 mutual option)

Both Billingsley (elbow) and Lilly (shoulder) finished 2012 on the DL, but both are expected to be available at the beginning of spring training.    You would think the Dodgers would be willing to give a couple of these guys away for a basket of batting practice balls.  They're probably stuck with Beckett unless they pick up a lot of his contract, probably the same with Lilly.  But Harang and Capuano would be very reasonable contracts considering what other teams are paying for pitchers.

     Thread Starter
 

12/18/2012 9:36 pm  #162


Re: Off-season GC

forsberg_us wrote:

Actually, anyone who needs pitching should be calling the Dodgers.  A friend just pointed out that the Dodgers currently have 8 starters under contract for next year.

Kershaw- $11M
Greinke- $19M
Ryu- $3.33M
Beckett- $17M (plus $17M in 2014)
Billingsley- $11M (plus $12M in 2014)
Lilly- $13.1M
Harang- $7M (plus a 2014 mutual option)
Capuano- $6M (plus a 2014 mutual option)

Both Billingsley (elbow) and Lilly (shoulder) finished 2012 on the DL, but both are expected to be available at the beginning of spring training.    You would think the Dodgers would be willing to give a couple of these guys away for a basket of batting practice balls.  They're probably stuck with Beckett unless they pick up a lot of his contract, probably the same with Lilly.  But Harang and Capuano would be very reasonable contracts considering what other teams are paying for pitchers.

I don't know the first thing about the Japanese player they signed, but that's a lot of payroll that's going to be sitting on the bench or in the bullpen. I wonder when Kershaw is eligible for his big contract. If I'm his agent, I'm starting the discussion at $25m per year.

 

12/18/2012 10:23 pm  #163


Re: Off-season GC

Korean, not Japanese. They paid quite a bit just for the right to negotiate with him, and I read something that said they can't send him to the minors. He's expected to be in the rotation.

Kerahaw is a free agent after 2014. We were actually discussing him today. I didn't realize he's only 24. His record is something like 60-35, his career ERA is about 2.75, and he's averaging better than a strikeout an inning for his career. He'll be 26 when he hits free agency.

Don't laugh, but I wouldn't be shocked if Kershaw signs the first $200M contract for a pitcher. I bet he starts at 8/$240 and works down from there.

     Thread Starter
 

12/20/2012 8:31 am  #164


Re: Off-season GC

Cubs are close to giving Edwin Jackson $52 million over four years.

 

12/20/2012 12:50 pm  #165


Re: Off-season GC

forsberg_us wrote:

Actually, anyone who needs pitching should be calling the Dodgers.  A friend just pointed out that the Dodgers currently have 8 starters under contract for next year.

Kershaw- $11M
Greinke- $19M
Ryu- $3.33M
Beckett- $17M (plus $17M in 2014)
Billingsley- $11M (plus $12M in 2014)
Lilly- $13.1M
Harang- $7M (plus a 2014 mutual option)
Capuano- $6M (plus a 2014 mutual option)

Both Billingsley (elbow) and Lilly (shoulder) finished 2012 on the DL, but both are expected to be available at the beginning of spring training.    You would think the Dodgers would be willing to give a couple of these guys away for a basket of batting practice balls.  They're probably stuck with Beckett unless they pick up a lot of his contract, probably the same with Lilly.  But Harang and Capuano would be very reasonable contracts considering what other teams are paying for pitchers.

Jeez...is their plan to "Frankenstein" a Koufax and a Drysdale out of pieces of those guys?

 

12/20/2012 5:17 pm  #166


Re: Off-season GC

tkihshbt wrote:

Cubs are close to giving Edwin Jackson $52 million over four years.

Excellent. The Cubs got into the mess they've been in the last few years by paying too much money over too many years to players who don't deserve it. It'll work for Theo, though.

 

12/20/2012 6:07 pm  #167


Re: Off-season GC

forsberg_us wrote:

Actually, anyone who needs pitching should be calling the Dodgers.  A friend just pointed out that the Dodgers currently have 8 starters under contract for next year.

Kershaw- $11M
Greinke- $19M
Ryu- $3.33M
Beckett- $17M (plus $17M in 2014)
Billingsley- $11M (plus $12M in 2014)
Lilly- $13.1M
Harang- $7M (plus a 2014 mutual option)
Capuano- $6M (plus a 2014 mutual option)

Both Billingsley (elbow) and Lilly (shoulder) finished 2012 on the DL, but both are expected to be available at the beginning of spring training.    You would think the Dodgers would be willing to give a couple of these guys away for a basket of batting practice balls.  They're probably stuck with Beckett unless they pick up a lot of his contract, probably the same with Lilly.  But Harang and Capuano would be very reasonable contracts considering what other teams are paying for pitchers.

I have always liked Lilly.  His price tag is to steep.  They would have to pick up some of the contract.  However Billingsley is worth the price.  I dont see the Cardinals looking for starters but if they were that is how I would approach it.

 

12/20/2012 6:07 pm  #168


Re: Off-season GC

tkihshbt wrote:

Cubs are close to giving Edwin Jackson $52 million over four years.

This is dumb.

 

12/21/2012 1:14 pm  #169


Re: Off-season GC

Eh. Jackson is an average pitcher and the Cubs had some dreadful pitching last season. All he has to do is throw 200 innings and be his average self and they come out ahead.

Theo has actually done a decent job building a cheap rotation that won't be vomit-inducing bad for the fans, but between Jackson, Baker, Wood and Feldman there are going to be a lot of home runs flying out of Wrigley this summer.

 

12/21/2012 1:29 pm  #170


Re: Off-season GC

tkihshbt wrote:

Eh. Jackson is an average pitcher and the Cubs had some dreadful pitching last season. All he has to do is throw 200 innings and be his average self and they come out ahead.

Theo has actually done a decent job building a cheap rotation that won't be vomit-inducing bad for the fans, but between Jackson, Baker, Wood and Feldman there are going to be a lot of home runs flying out of Wrigley this summer.

Both of those statements seem to contradict themselfs. 

I personally dont get a move like this.  Locking Jackson up for 4 years at 13 million a year seems like the opposite thing a rebuilding club should do.  The Cubs are not going to be good enough in 2013 to compete for the division.  I figured the best they could do was build the team to compete in a couple years.  By then Jackson is likely worst then he is now.  At 13 million a year he is just a budget eater.  I dont see how the Cubs signing a top 5 free agent pitcher in a weak class helps them.  they would have been better off just filling the spots with less demanded pitchers.  Shaun Marcum and Joe Saunders are better pitchers then Jackson or Loshe.

 

12/21/2012 1:37 pm  #171


Re: Off-season GC

You can have an average rotation and still give up a lot of home runs.

As for Jackson, there's value in at least being respectable (75-80 wins) instead of horrible. There's no point in the Cubs going full Houston and just sitting on a pile of cash. They have the money so dropping $13 million annually on an average pitcher isn't that nuts.

BTW, I think Shaun Marcum is injured.

 

12/21/2012 1:52 pm  #172


Re: Off-season GC

4 years is what gets me.  A two year 13 million deal wouldnt have been so bad.

 

12/22/2012 4:33 am  #173


Re: Off-season GC

forsberg_us wrote:

The way salaries are going, I don't even think the $1.5M price tag was that big of a deal.  The average MLB salary is something like $3.3M.

FWIW, I think median is more informative here.

 

12/22/2012 4:43 am  #174


Re: Off-season GC

tkihshbt wrote:

As for Jackson, there's value in at least being respectable (75-80 wins) instead of horrible.

Agreed.  The Cubs have a good gig and there's no point in sitting on so much dry powder that they piss the fans off.  Gotta keep them interested until June, at least, in Wrigleyville.

Last edited by Max (12/22/2012 4:46 am)

 

12/22/2012 2:24 pm  #175


Re: Off-season GC

Max wrote:

forsberg_us wrote:

The way salaries are going, I don't even think the $1.5M price tag was that big of a deal.  The average MLB salary is something like $3.3M.

FWIW, I think median is more informative here.

Going by this chart, it looks like the median of the median is about $1.1 million. Interesting that the Brewers were ahead of the Yankees.


http://content.usatoday.com/sportsdata/baseball/mlb/salaries/team

 

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