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3/12/2013 12:02 pm  #1


Thursday Judgment Day

Apparently the final decision on Kelly vs. Miller will be made after they both pitch on Thursday. Goold says they are still leaning towards Kelly, which still makes no sense, and they might want to have Miller pitch out of the bullpen, which also makes no sense.

I'm half-expecting them to carry 15 relievers. 

 

3/12/2013 5:49 pm  #2


Re: Thursday Judgment Day

i agree on ur confusion.  somebody has to be the loser in this deal but still.  

 

3/12/2013 9:56 pm  #3


Re: Thursday Judgment Day

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/round-two/round-two-kelly-or-miller-as-fifth-starter/article_eaf1462a-27ea-5a95-b432-130ccefbd7d3.html

I'm not sure what to make of this. Most of the reasons I'm reading are about how Kelly pitched decently last season. That's fine and all, but this isn't a high school team. If Kelly isn't as good as Miller and so far this spring he hasn't been, then why should he get to be in the rotation? Miller has more upside, he has a starter's repertoire and he's already proven that he can pitch here. Long-term he projects as a starter and there's really no reason to send him back to a league he chewed up last season (albeit in six weeks).
 

     Thread Starter
 

3/13/2013 10:17 am  #4


Re: Thursday Judgment Day

It's a valid discussion, but I think they're both going to end up in the rotation anyway, either due to Garcia's injury or Westbrook's ineffectiveness.

 

3/13/2013 2:17 pm  #5


Re: Thursday Judgment Day

I really don't get what the Cardinals intend to do with this roster, particularly the pitching staff.

First they made the decision to tender arbitration to Mujica knowing that it would cost almost $3M to bring him back.  Nothing against Mujica, and I appreciate what he did for the 2012 Cardinals, but after the 2011 season they refused a similar option for Octavio Dotel which is why they needed to trade for Mujica in the first place.  Just my opinion, but the only reason Mujica is on the team is because they traded Zack Cox to get him and Moz wasn't willing to say he traded a former first rounder for a 3 month rental of Mujica.

Then they signed Choate to a 3 year deal.  I get that they felt they needed a lefty who was more reliable than Scrabble, but 3 years seems excessive.

Ty Wigginton????  'Nuf said.

Next they announce that the 5th spot in the rotation is a 3 horse race, but remove one of the participants fairly early.  Then they announce that a guy they envision as a future starter is going to serve as Brad Thompson rather than learning to start at AAA--a level at which he's never pitched and which could serve as a benefit.

Now they're apparently set to decide that it makes sense to start the season with Joe Kelly in the rotation and Shelby Miller in the major league bullpen which makes no sense on a number of levels.  Why start Miller's major league clock in order to make him the 5th RH RELIEVER out of the pen?  If you believe Miller ends up in the rotation by the end of the season, why put him in the bullpen, let his arm strength diminish only to later try to stretch him back into a starter (as opposed to letting him start in AAA and keeping him stretched out)?

I guess I should ask this a different way.  Let's say Garcia needs to skip a start or two in the middle of May.  Miller and Rosenthal have both been pitching one inning at a time since late March.  Who makes the start for Garcia, and if it's Miller or Rosenthal can they reasonably be expected to pitch more than 2-3 innings?

 

3/13/2013 4:28 pm  #6


Re: Thursday Judgment Day

A

forsberg_us wrote:

 Just my opinion, but the only reason Mujica is on the team is because they traded Zack Cox to get him and Moz wasn't willing to say he traded a former first rounder for a 3 month rental of Mujica.

It's music to my ears to hear you state that opinion!

forsberg_us wrote:

 I guess I should ask this a different way.  Let's say Garcia needs to skip a start or two in the middle of May.  Miller and Rosenthal have both been pitching one inning at a time since late March.  Who makes the start for Garcia, and if it's Miller or Rosenthal can they reasonably be expected to pitch more than 2-3 innings?

A LaRussaian "Bullpen Game"?!?  Matheny played during the era of the infamous bullpen games, no?  Or is my memory failing me?

 

 

3/13/2013 7:49 pm  #7


Re: Thursday Judgment Day

La Russa was using his bullpen in annoying ways before I was even born. So yes, Matheny played during that era. 

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3/14/2013 1:09 am  #8


Re: Thursday Judgment Day

valid points fors.  i haveno clue what they are doing.  we will just have to see how it plays out.  i know with injuries overage in depth seems to work themselfs out.

 

3/14/2013 7:59 am  #9


Re: Thursday Judgment Day

Max wrote:

A

forsberg_us wrote:

 Just my opinion, but the only reason Mujica is on the team is because they traded Zack Cox to get him and Moz wasn't willing to say he traded a former first rounder for a 3 month rental of Mujica.

It's music to my ears to hear you state that opinion!

forsberg_us wrote:

 I guess I should ask this a different way.  Let's say Garcia needs to skip a start or two in the middle of May.  Miller and Rosenthal have both been pitching one inning at a time since late March.  Who makes the start for Garcia, and if it's Miller or Rosenthal can they reasonably be expected to pitch more than 2-3 innings?

A LaRussaian "Bullpen Game"?!?  Matheny played during the era of the infamous bullpen games, no?  Or is my memory failing me?

 

I hated those bullpen games. Sending Lance Painter or Luther Hackman out there to start was practically running up a white flag.
 

 

3/14/2013 11:50 am  #10


Re: Thursday Judgment Day

Great post, Fors.

     Thread Starter
 

3/14/2013 12:16 pm  #11


Re: Thursday Judgment Day

Carpenter doubled off Mike Minor. Now batting .387.

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3/14/2013 12:19 pm  #12


Re: Thursday Judgment Day

Kelly had a breezy first inning. Needed just 10 pitches.

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3/14/2013 12:22 pm  #13


Re: Thursday Judgment Day

Fielding error by The Koz. 

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3/14/2013 1:43 pm  #14


Re: Thursday Judgment Day

Miller is making hitters look pretty foolish in the second. 

     Thread Starter
 

3/14/2013 3:12 pm  #15


Re: Thursday Judgment Day

Statistics don't always tell the whole story, but if today was really a defining day, I'd say Kelly is the 5th starter

Kelly- 4 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 K, 0 BB
Miller- 2.2 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 4 K, 1 BB

ETA- two of Miller's runs scored on a hit allowed by Rosenthal.

Matt Carpenter played 2B again, went 2 for 4, increased his spring average to .382 (13 for 34) with 5 doubles and a triple.

The Cardinals lineup suddenly becomes very interesting if Matt Carpenter is really in the mix at 2B.

Last edited by forsberg_us (3/14/2013 4:11 pm)

 

3/14/2013 4:18 pm  #16


Re: Thursday Judgment Day

In other Cardinals news, Michael Wacha and Eduardo Sanchez were optioned to minor league camp.

Wacha's final spring training line: 11.2 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 15 K, 1 BB

Last edited by forsberg_us (3/14/2013 4:54 pm)

 

3/14/2013 8:51 pm  #17


Re: Thursday Judgment Day

forsberg_us wrote:

In other Cardinals news, Michael Wacha and Eduardo Sanchez were optioned to minor league camp.

Wacha's final spring training line: 11.2 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 15 K, 1 BB

One would have hoped Sanchez would have advanced past the Memphis Shuffle by now. Makes you wonder if he's ever going to be an effective major league pitcher.
I haven't seen him pitch yet, but everything I've read about Wacha is he's the goods.
 

 

3/14/2013 8:57 pm  #18


Re: Thursday Judgment Day

"The Cardinals lineup suddenly becomes very interesting if Matt Carpenter is really in the mix at 2B."

Has anyone seen him play in the field? Can they get by with him at second, or is he Skippy circa 2009?

 

3/14/2013 9:21 pm  #19


Re: Thursday Judgment Day

artie_fufkin wrote:

"The Cardinals lineup suddenly becomes very interesting if Matt Carpenter is really in the mix at 2B."

Has anyone seen him play in the field? Can they get by with him at second, or is he Skippy circa 2009?

There's a story in the P-D that suggests he's playing pretty well defensively. 
 

 

3/14/2013 10:09 pm  #20


Re: Thursday Judgment Day

forsberg_us wrote:

Wacha's final spring training line: 11.2 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 15 K, 1 BB

eye opening numbers.

 

3/14/2013 10:10 pm  #21


Re: Thursday Judgment Day

forsberg_us wrote:

artie_fufkin wrote:

"The Cardinals lineup suddenly becomes very interesting if Matt Carpenter is really in the mix at 2B."

Has anyone seen him play in the field? Can they get by with him at second, or is he Skippy circa 2009?

There's a story in the P-D that suggests he's playing pretty well defensively. 
 

Interesting.  But it will be more believable if something other than a mouthpiece for the front office repeats it.

 

3/15/2013 9:37 am  #22


Re: Thursday Judgment Day

I thought after watching the game yesterday using kelly in the rotation is the right move.  Miller needs some polishing imo.  Idk if i would put him in the pen tho.  Id put him in memphis.  I bet if they did that he would be in the rotation one way or another within a month.

I find the idea of seeing this lineup with carp batting second as an interesting one.

 

3/15/2013 9:44 am  #23


Re: Thursday Judgment Day

APIAD wrote:

I find the idea of seeing this lineup with carp batting second as an interesting one.

I think Matheny liked Beltran hitting 2nd.  Plus a lot of managers don't like putting LH hitters back-to-back.  I could live with:

Jay
Beltran
Holliday
Craig
Freese
Molina
Carpenter
Kozma
Pitcher
 

 

3/15/2013 10:15 am  #24


Re: Thursday Judgment Day

Max wrote:

forsberg_us wrote:

artie_fufkin wrote:

"The Cardinals lineup suddenly becomes very interesting if Matt Carpenter is really in the mix at 2B."

Has anyone seen him play in the field? Can they get by with him at second, or is he Skippy circa 2009?

There's a story in the P-D that suggests he's playing pretty well defensively. 
 

Interesting.  But it will be more believable if something other than a mouthpiece for the front office repeats it.

Then feel free to do your own research.  Here's what the numbers show.  In an admittedly small sample size, Carpenter has a RF/9 of 5.78 which means that Carpenter has been involved in an average of almost 6 outs for every 9 innings played.  In 4 seasons, Schumaker's RF/9 was 4.92 and last season it was 4.99.  Last season in 440 innings at 2B, Schumaker was involved in 35 double plays.  So far this spring, in 67 innings, Carpenter has been involved in 11 double plays. 

I haven't seen an inning of spring training baseball, but the numbers say Carpenter is getting to more balls than Schumaker and turning more double plays.  Oh, and Carpenter has yet to make an error this spring.  FWIW, Descalso's RF/9 this spring is 6.58, he's been involved in 5 DPs and made 1 error.

No one is suggesting Carpenter is going to win a gold glove.  But to this point, he's been a more than adequate defender (much better than Schumaker ever was) and given that he's posted a 1.050 OPS for the spring, perhaps the Cardinals should consider giving him an opportunity to start games at 2B.

 

3/15/2013 11:07 am  #25


Re: Thursday Judgment Day

I didn't get to see Kelly pitch yesterday, but I still think he's a rich man's Brad Thompson with control issues. I think he's going to be a fine long reliever, but that entirely too much stock is being put in 100 innings.

That said, I think Wacha is going to wind up being the closest to a sure thing and if the opportunity is there, he should be a member of the MLB rotation this season. 

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