forsberg_us wrote:

If Kyle Lohse holds out until June/July, he's much more likely to sign a 3 month contract than a 3 year contract. 

If Lohse signed today, he wouldn't be ready for Opening Day. If he doesn't sign until June, he won't pitch until July. Losing the burden of draft pick compensation would help, but Lohse's value is going down, not up. 

Well, we might not be able to put these competing hypotheses to the test, if Lohse insists on going with the best offer now.  Maybe he wants to screw the Cardsout of the draft pick.  In any case, I stick to my guns: I've never seen the season when proven starting pitching is not at a premium in July.  Having Kyle Lohse available for nothing more than money would make him a godsend for the rich teams.  His value would be determined by the selling teams, the pitchers they were willing to deal, and their asking price in terms of prospects.

forsberg_us wrote:

If Kyle Lohse holds out until June/July, he's much more likely to sign a 3 month contract than a 3 year contract. 

If Lohse signed today, he wouldn't be ready for Opening Day. If he doesn't sign until June, he won't pitch until July. Losing the burden of draft pick compensation would help, but Lohse's value is going down, not up. 

plus he is losing money by simply not playing. Nobody is going to pay him 10 million dollars to play half a season.

Its a multi year deal.  It will be interesting to see how much.

I think it is kind of dumb on the brewers part.  They gave up the 17th pick which is a big deal.  They also paid market value to a guy that nobody wanted and wont be ready to pitch on opening day.  I think loshe will do fine and not hurt the brewers with this contract.  I just think the brewers had leverage they could have used to lower this deal.  loshe will have to keep his control tho.  He will get killed in miller park if he starts giving up hrs again.

Max wrote:

forsberg_us wrote:

Boras apparently told Peter Gammons that Lohse will not wait until June to sign a contract.

That would be good news for the Cardinals.

If true, then he won't get 3 or 4 years.  My ballpark guesstimates going into this were that he might receive offers along these lines, give or take a million or two:

$40/4
$36/3
$30/2

If he holds out until midseason, I still think he'll get that.

$33/3 it is:

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/milwaukee-brewers-agree-to-mutli-year-deal-with-veteran-pitcher-kyle-lohse-170637933.html
 

Last edited by Max (3/25/2013 12:40 pm)

Per Strauss, Lohse required to take significant deferred money in exchange for a 3rd year.  Only makes $4M this year.  $11M in 2014-15.  $7M deferred paid over 2016-18.

It's a shame Lohse went to the Brewers. They can't win the division because the Cardinals cheat when they bring up September callups.

Max wrote:

forsberg_us wrote:

Per Strauss, Lohse required to take significant deferred money in exchange for a 3rd year.  Only makes $4M this year.  $11M in 2014-15.  $7M deferred paid over 2016-18.

So, essentially, that's like a 0% interest loan for the Brewers?

Correct. It's my understanding the teams take out annuities to pay off deferred money. According to Buster Olney, the present-day value of Lohse's deal is $9.5M/year. 

It appears Boras did him a real disservice again. If the reports of Boras' early demands are accurate, he basically took Lohse off the market until the number of teams in need of pitching (or willing to pay for it) was virtually nil. As Olney pointed out, the present day AAV of Lohse's deal is about 3/4 of what Dempster got and not much more than what the Angels gave Joe Blanton. Lohse deserved better than that. 

Boras is in it for Boras, and that's the way things go.  Still, the Dumpster contract is not really comparable is it, because Dumpster only got 2 years, no?  If Lohse had been willing to consider 2 year offers, and if Boras shopped him at $30/2, he might have gotten something close to that.

It may be that with Lohse's history of injuries, he was willing to go lower AAV and more years, because he was concerned that there might not be another contract after this one.  

Max wrote:

Boras is in it for Boras, and that's the way things go.  Still, the Dumpster contract is not really comparable is it, because Dumpster only got 2 years, no?  If Lohse had been willing to consider 2 year offers, and if Boras shopped him at $30/2, he might have gotten something close to that.

It may be that with Lohse's history of injuries, he was willing to go lower AAV and more years, because he was concerned that there might not be another contract after this one.  

Seems really comparable to me.  Unless you are saying dempster got alot better deal.  

Dempster (age 36).  2/26.5

loshe (age 34) - 3/33.  7 million deffered

if the team can invest its money to make 7 million i assume dempster could to In 5 year.  Plus there is something to be said for not having to work an extra year.  If u made 50,000 a year andmknew u were going to lose ur job in 3 years no matter what, would u take 120,000 and work 2 years or take 150,000 and have to work 3?

Well, hypothetically, let's say Boras shopped him for $30/2, and got $28/2.  Then the differnce is $5 million, not counting the deferment.  You or I would seriously consider cutting off either an arm or a leg for that kind of money, but yes, it means less to Lohse, who just made a pile off the Cardinals. 

Lohse might be thinking like this, yes I gave away the third year BUT . . .
-I might be injured and not have to play that year anyway.
-What are the chances I will command $5 million for a single season two years from now?
-This guarantees me the chance to play baseball, the game I love, for three more years, at a compensation level that looks respectable.

If Boras is saying Lohse got screwed, then this makes it look like the whole thing might have been theater designed to show how much the "players" (i.e. Boras) are going to get screwed by the new compensation system.  Whether he did it by design, or whether he is making the best of a bad situation, Boras will make this good for Boras. Eveything he says should be taken in that context, IMO.

Last edited by Max (3/26/2013 5:43 pm)