I've never taken the time to understand the dynamic between the two Koreas, but I'm pretty certain Kim Jong Il is nuttier than squirrel poop. If he's still alive. And his son might be even crazier.

"Militaries on high alert after S. Korean island shelled; Seoul warns of 'enormous retaliation' if provoked again"


Never mind.  South Korea is letting the north off the hook.  This is a huge sign of weakness, IMO.  I dont want to see two countries go to war and I really really dont want to see the US get involved in another unwinnable war but a country not fighting back after an attack seems out of the question.

Mags wrote:

APRTW wrote:

"Militaries on high alert after S. Korean island shelled; Seoul warns of 'enormous retaliation' if provoked again"


Never mind.  South Korea is letting the north off the hook.  This is a huge sign of weakness, IMO.  I dont want to see two countries go to war and I really really dont want to see the US get involved in another unwinnable war but a country not fighting back after an attack seems out of the question.

I couldn't agree with you more, APRTW, but I'm afraid it's about 59 years past that deadline.  I can't recall which us of suggested above that South Korea would kick the snot out of them but there would be no nukes.  Wishful thinking is comforting but it is still wishful thinking.  If anyone thinks North Korea will go down to defeat without nuking both the South and Japan, he needs to get a lot more realistic.

I am surprised to learn that we aren't getting any more help from China on this one.  Maybe they are secretly working on a coup.  [Talk about wishful thinking.]

I said that we and China sit and back and let them fight it out, in which case, South Korea would kick the crap out of them with conventional weapons, even if the North is successful in getting off a few nukes.  IMO, if they were foolish enough to attack Japan in the process, then the combined conventional armies of Japan and South Korea could turn the North into a parking lot. If it gets bad, millions of people could well die.  But if everything clicked it would a worse blow out than Israel against any of its Arab neighbors. 

IMO, the situation here is what do you do when your neighbor, who lost his job, whose wife and children left him, and whose house is in foreclosure, is walking around the neighborhood at 11:59 with a loaded assault rifle, and puts a bullet through your window.  Nine guys out of 10 call the cops and yell out to him that one more bullet like that brings on a lethal response.  1 guy out of 10 probably sees the opportunity to play yahoo for the day and starts shooting back.

1.  Max, I hope we never get to find out whether you are absurdly wrong or I am.  I think you have grossly underestimated the amount of damage the North would cause with nuclear weapons to both and Japan and South Korea and greatly overestimated the ability of South Korea and Japan to mount a significant military reprisal in the limited amount of time they would have available to them.  That, of course, would bring into play the U.S. commitment to provide an umbrella of protection for Japan.

Not that we aren't capable of ignoring commitments to other countries on which they have relied to their great detriment.  In fact, I agree that is very much what we are likely to do and I probably won't live long enough to suffer the consequences.

2.  APRTW, again, you are right.  We now know that the Iranian students had assumed they would be forced to release the embassy hostages when the anticipated threat of massive military action by the U.S. became imminent.  We also know that the top German generals were committed to topple Hitler in a coup if Great Britain and France had backed Czechoslovakia.

But we also know that an American military invasion of Cuba, which many senators, including J.W. Fulbright, supported, would have triggered an immediate launch of a Soviet nuclear missile from Cuba.  If I were John McCain right now, I'd be very pleased to be a U.S. Senator.

3.  Artie, I don't think the thesis that Stalin was worried about "buffers," as so frequently argued successfully by American Communists in the 30's and 40's, has survived historical examination.  His goal was advancement.  But that's another discussion.

You are right that the Koreans, both North and South, have been looked upon with undeserved contempt by other Asians -- especially the Japanese and Chinese -- for centuries.  Even today, despite their incredible economic progress, the South Koreans are still treated as social inferiors by a great many educated Japanese and Chinese.

Last edited by Mags (11/24/2010 9:40 pm)

North Korea's nuclear capabilities certainly put everything in a different realm, AP. Your analogy about the little brother is probably more aptly described as a crazy sibling off his meds who is pointing an Uzi in your face and threatening to off you and then go on a shooting spree.
Because most of the industry was in the north, the North Koreans actually almost drove the South Koreans, who were mostly farmers, into the sea by the end of 1950, when the U.S. got involved militarily. So the South Koreans' economic superiority these days is a recent phenomenon. It's hard to know what the North Koreans have going for them these days because it's probably the most secretive country on the planet.

artie_fufkin wrote:

North Korea's nuclear capabilities certainly put everything in a different realm, AP. Your analogy about the little brother is probably more aptly described as a crazy sibling off his meds who is pointing an Uzi in your face and threatening to off you and then go on a shooting spree.
Because most of the industry was in the north, the North Koreans actually almost drove the South Koreans, who were mostly farmers, into the sea by the end of 1950, when the U.S. got involved militarily. So the South Koreans' economic superiority these days is a recent phenomenon. It's hard to know what the North Koreans have going for them these days because it's probably the most secretive country on the planet.

I think your history might be a little confused. We were already involved when the Korean People's Army had the South Koreans and UN (i.e US) forces bottled up within the "Pusan perimeter".  Nevertheless, that was then and this is now.

The story of warfare for millennia is that well-trained armies kick the ass of larger, more poorly trained armies.  Given the economic situation in North Korea, most of their forces are probably poorly trained and equipped, and the few elite forces are probably better motivated to suppress and exploit their own population than to attack an enemy.  The nuclear weapons are obviously a huge problem, but their use would unquestionably bring a huge response.  The reason South Korea didn't simply kick their ass, prior to the acquisition of nukes probably has more to do with the fact that any attack would bring a devastating response from China.