artie_fufkin wrote:

I know post-game comments are mostly tailored around who won and who lost the game they just played, but all I'm hearing the Cardinals say is how tough it's going to be to win one more game against the Dodgers, and the Dodgers are agreeing with them.

That 3-1 lead storyline is still fresh from last season.  But I think there are several reasons to distinguish this season from 2012 (or 1996 or 1985)

- Games 6 and 7 (if necessary) are at home.  In past seasons, when the Cardinals have blown a 3-1 lead, the series ended in the other team's home park.   The Cardinals have been very good this season at Busch, and most of our pitchers are better at home.

- Vibe/luck/injuries.  In year's past, it always felt like the Cardinals were the team running on fumes or just lucky to be there.  Last season, Wainwright was at the end of a long first season after TJ surgery and was largely ineffective.  Carpenter was trying to come back and wasn't very good.  The most reliable pitcher was Kyle Lohse (nuf said).  The Cardinals have had their share of injuries--most recently the loss of Craig--but the Dodgers are without Matt Kemp, Ethier is compromised and now Ramirez may be out or compromised.

- Pitching strength.  Yes, we're facing 3 exceptionally talented pitchers.  But the Cardinals have a trio of pretty darn good pitchers themselves and a bullpen that, though inexperienced, has the natural talent to be very, very good.

If you go back to the thread TK started asking for predictions, I picked the Dodgers to beat the Cardinals.  But given where the team's are now, I think we get this thing done.

"That 3-1 lead storyline"

All good points. The two other times I can remember them blowing a 3-1 lead were in '85 and '96. The '85 WS was obviously clouded by Denkinger's bad call, and the '96 Braves were throwing Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine against what in reality was a mediocre Cardinals' team, with the last two games in Atlanta. This series reminds me a lot more of that one than '85 or'12 because of the Dodgers' pitching, but this is a much better Cardinals team than the '96 version.
I suppose you could go back to '68 if you really want to dig, but that was pretty much all Mickey Lolich in two of the last three games. If it gets that far, I can't see Greinke coming back on two days rest and beating Wainwright in Game 7. That just doesnt happen these days. 
If any of that makes sense.

Last edited by artie_fufkin (10/16/2013 12:42 pm)

artie_fufkin wrote:

"Carp
Molina
Holliday
Beltran
Freese
Adams
Robinson
Kozma"

If Kershaw was starting, I'd probably agree with you, but I'd go with Jay and Scal against the righty.

Actually for some reason I thought he was.