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12/15/2013 5:32 pm  #1


Cardinals nearing deal with Mark Ellis

Without knowing the financial terms, I like this deal. Right-handed insurance for the infield. I think Pete Kozma's Cardinals career is nearing an end.

 

12/15/2013 6:29 pm  #2


Re: Cardinals nearing deal with Mark Ellis

Kozma should win out over Descalso, who shouldn't even be allowed to look at shortstop, but I suspect he'll be optioned. Regardless, I really like the way this team is shaking out. Ellis is a perfect fit and if everything breaks right, they should repeat as division champions. 

 

12/16/2013 9:55 am  #3


Re: Cardinals nearing deal with Mark Ellis

I like the player. I like that it's a 1-year deal. The Cardinals won't get Wiggnintoned on this.

 

12/16/2013 10:20 am  #4


Re: Cardinals nearing deal with Mark Ellis

The cards have a glaring whole at ss if peralta goes down.  Neither descalso or kozma are players you want to see play much time there.  The crappy thing is kozma would fill in for peralta in a full time role better.  Like if peralta goes down with a long injury.  That makes you want to keep kozma.  On the other hand descalso is a better player to have on the 25 man roster if peralta is healthy because he can play 3 infield positions.  It seems the best thing to do is keep kozma stashed in memphis as an insurance policy with delscalso taking the utility role. 

I love the mark ellis move.  He is a legit full time second baseman.  If wong needs more time in memphis the 25 man roster remains strong.  Bernie talked about him as a platoon player and he might be best suited for that.  However giving him 500ish at bats and him reproducing his 2013 numbers wouldnt hurt the cardinals.  There is more to gain from wong but as far as back up plans go this is steller.  Im suprised he was willing to be reduced to that role.  The only thing i dislike about the move is that he doesnt replace the need for either delscalso or kozma.  He really only provides an option and protection at 2nd.  That is very one dimensional for a bench player.

 

12/16/2013 10:23 am  #5


Re: Cardinals nearing deal with Mark Ellis

"if peralta goes down"

... or gets suspended for 100 games for a second positive test for PEDs.

 

12/16/2013 10:39 am  #6


Re: Cardinals nearing deal with Mark Ellis

artie_fufkin wrote:

"if peralta goes down"

... or gets suspended for 100 games for a second positive test for PEDs.

The suspension may be the greater risk.  Peralta has actually had a decent record of staying healthy.  He's played at least 141 games every year in which he wasn't serving a PED suspension.

     Thread Starter
 

12/16/2013 1:09 pm  #7


Re: Cardinals nearing deal with Mark Ellis

So if it is found that he was invovled in PED previously then he last a suspension can he be suspended for that as well?  Or does the violation have to have occured between his suspension and the present?

 

12/16/2013 2:31 pm  #8


Re: Cardinals nearing deal with Mark Ellis

Given the way MLB is going after A-Rod, I would assume they could attempt to discipline Peralta for any act (other than Biogenesis) since the current disciplinary policy was put into place.  But I'm not sure MLB will go digging for dirt on Peralta like they have with A-Rod.

     Thread Starter
 

12/16/2013 5:03 pm  #9


Re: Cardinals nearing deal with Mark Ellis

Maybe that is why peralta wanted a front loaded contract.

 

12/16/2013 6:25 pm  #10


Re: Cardinals nearing deal with Mark Ellis

Maybe I'm naive, but I don't see Peralta messing up again. 

 

12/17/2013 12:42 pm  #11


Re: Cardinals nearing deal with Mark Ellis

I don't see much room on the team for Kozma. Descalso's value is his bat isn't completely missing, and he can play three infield positions. This gives you a great platoon infielder. Sure he's not Cano, but I don't hate Descalso and never have. For all his defensive "problems" every issue we had defensively in the world series was a result of Kozma... He's just not a superstar, and I'm okay with us having a few guys that don't cost us 5+ million a season on the roster.

On Peralta. If he was found in a PED violation, the rules would dictate that it's 100 games. Unlike A-Rod, who was busted, squirmed out of it, and was later proven guilty multiple times, and then sued baseball, called the commissioner a coward (frustration is understandable, but that's just a stupid move...), and is generally considered a special case. Peralta got in trouble, put his head down, took his suspension, and hopefully put it behind him. Another infraction would be 100 games, nothing more.

 

 

12/17/2013 1:25 pm  #12


Re: Cardinals nearing deal with Mark Ellis

Alz, i agree on descalso.  He is much more valuable the kozma off the bench.  He isnt a good ss but he isnt completely lost either.  Playing 3 infield positions is huge.  He falls someplace inbetween mark derosa and arron miles.  I think we all remember the days of miles needing a cutoff man to get the ball to first.  I think with ellis on the team his role is going to decrease even more, as it should.  He was over exposed last year.

I less worried about peralta and ped.  1. He has to make the same mistake twice.  I hope he learned.  2. He has to get caught.  Not that it isnt a possiblity but i think it is less of one then him getting hurt.  I know he is generally healthy but that means very little.  Everyone can get hurt.  In the case of injury you simply can have descalso being ur everyday ss.  Kozma is a better option even if he cant hit a lick.

I love the ellis signing.  Great solid move.  I counted him out as i didnt think the cards could offer him enough of a role.  It would be nice if he could play other infield positions beside 2nd.  I believe the mlb network stated his purpose as wongs backup and a right handed option at 3rd.  That made me pause.  He has played little to none outside of second.  I dont think at 36 years of age he needs to be playing out of position.

 

12/18/2013 8:57 am  #13


Re: Cardinals nearing deal with Mark Ellis

I'm not sure you guys were watching Descalso enough at shortstop if you think he can play there. He was wretched defensively. Kozma is a zero with the bat. Atrocious. But if I had to choose between the guy who could capably play three infield positions over the guy who can mimic the motions of a shortstop and get a few more hits in 250 plate appearances, I'm going with the defensive option. A bench that will have some combination of Jay, Bourjos, Craig, Adams and Ellis isn't crying out for Descalso.

 

12/18/2013 9:59 am  #14


Re: Cardinals nearing deal with Mark Ellis

tkihshbt wrote:

I'm not sure you guys were watching Descalso enough at shortstop if you think he can play there. He was wretched defensively. Kozma is a zero with the bat. Atrocious. But if I had to choose between the guy who could capably play three infield positions over the guy who can mimic the motions of a shortstop and get a few more hits in 250 plate appearances, I'm going with the defensive option. A bench that will have some combination of Jay, Bourjos, Craig, Adams and Ellis isn't crying out for Descalso.

Descalso made 14 errors in 382 chances over three positions. This is roughly a 3.7% chance of error per chance. He also had a .290 OBP

Kozma made 9 errors in 563 chances over two positions (561 of those chances coming to Shortstop). This is a 1.5% chance. He had a .275 OBP. He's played 1 game in the OF, 11 games at 2B, and 1 game at 3B in his career. This doesn't tell me he can effectively play three infield positions. It tells me he's a shortstop..... Descalso has played 186 games at 3B, 153 at 2B, 95 at SS. That's a much more comforting sample size.

Also just to note. We're talking about more value from a bench. Kozma can't hit.... That's much more important when talking about a bench player. I'll take Descalso and hopefully not watch Kozma kick a ball all over the infield in another world series....
 

 

12/18/2013 10:30 am  #15


Re: Cardinals nearing deal with Mark Ellis

Well, first, errors are a pretty terrible way to evaluate players defensively since they have as much to do with getting to the ball as anything else. The Cardinals had only 75 errors as a team. Were they a good defensive team? Of course not.

Descalso simply isn't a shortstop. He's barely a second baseman. Kozma is a very good shortstop defensively, the World Series aside. That shouldn't even factor into the discussion. A good defensive shortstop can play all over the field.

As for hitting, Descalso is going to be the third or fourth option off the bench. He does have the edge over Kozma when it comes to swinging the bat, but Kozma is a better defender and a much, much better base runner. It would be nuts to go into a season without at least a true backup shortstop. I think that's the route the Cardinals will ultimately go, but they are leaving themselves vulnerable. The good news is I don't think it's going to make a huge difference over the long run.

 

12/18/2013 10:41 am  #16


Re: Cardinals nearing deal with Mark Ellis

"I'm not sure you guys were watching Descalso enough at shortstop if you think he can play there."

I don't disagree, but if you've just added a guy who has averaged 140 games at year at short, the choice between Descalso and Kozma becomes easy. You can get by with Descalso for those other 20 games, and he gives you the benefit of being able to play third and second. I'm reasonably certain Koz could also fill in second, but we don't know if he can play third. 
And that's without factoring in the offensive component, which Descalso obviously wins easily.

 

12/18/2013 10:45 am  #17


Re: Cardinals nearing deal with Mark Ellis

Geez Artie... I think you summed up my feelings in one sentence. I feel like an idiot for laying out everything... I'll just quote you.

"You can get by with Descalso for those other 20 games, and he gives you the benefit of being able to play third and second."

 

12/18/2013 10:49 am  #18


Re: Cardinals nearing deal with Mark Ellis

"The good news is I don't think it's going to make a huge difference over the long run."

Excellent point. It's not 2009 and we're having a discussion about Khalil Greene batting cleanup on opening day. We're arguing over who should be the backup shortstop. We could be Phillies' fans wondering how many of their 8-figure salaries are going to actually get onto the field this season.

 

12/18/2013 10:51 am  #19


Re: Cardinals nearing deal with Mark Ellis

alz wrote:

Geez Artie... I think you summed up my feelings in one sentence. I feel like an idiot for laying out everything... I'll just quote you.

"You can get by with Descalso for those other 20 games, and he gives you the benefit of being able to play third and second."

Yeah, but you used actual statistics to support an intelligent analysis. I just sort of made it up as I went along. As usual.
 

 

12/18/2013 11:16 am  #20


Re: Cardinals nearing deal with Mark Ellis

"A bench that will have some combination of Jay, Bourjos, Craig, Adams and Ellis isn't crying out for Descalso."

Of the 5 names you listed, shouldn't 3 of those guys be on the field as starters, at least on Opening Day?"

I'm picturing the bench as Jay/Bourjos, Robinson, Ellis, Desclaso and Cruz which still isn't all that impressive.  It will get better once Taveras makes the team, but I'm not sure he does so out of Spring Training.

     Thread Starter
 

12/18/2013 12:00 pm  #21


Re: Cardinals nearing deal with Mark Ellis

One additional note on Kozma: he played a lot of second base in Memphis. Jackson was the primary shortstop there.

As for the bench: I would imagine it's going to be a fluid situation and the lineup is going to be quite different on a daily basis depending on Taveras. Even without Taveras I think we'll see Matheny bouncing around Bourjos, Jay, Craig and Adams. I don't think he'll follow any sort of strict platoon.

 

12/18/2013 12:31 pm  #22


Re: Cardinals nearing deal with Mark Ellis

It's all relative to who's better starting or off the bench. If I need a starter, I'd keep Kozma. Since we're talking about the bench, I'll take Descalso who's already a proven bench player, instead of rolling the dice that the starting shortstop I just demoted (who couldn't hit worth a damn anyway) will be effective in any type of bench role.

 

12/18/2013 12:41 pm  #23


Re: Cardinals nearing deal with Mark Ellis

tkihshbt wrote:

One additional note on Kozma: he played a lot of second base in Memphis. Jackson was the primary shortstop there.

As for the bench: I would imagine it's going to be a fluid situation and the lineup is going to be quite different on a daily basis depending on Taveras. Even without Taveras I think we'll see Matheny bouncing around Bourjos, Jay, Craig and Adams. I don't think he'll follow any sort of strict platoon.

Don't you think that the signing of Ellis suggests a possibility, if not a likelihood of a platoon at second base?

Just my guess, but I think the early season lineups (assuming no Taveras) will be

v. RHP
Carpenter
Peralta (or Wong)
Holliday
Craig
Adams
Molina
Wong (or Peralta)
Bourjos/Jay
Pitcher

v. LHP
Carpenter
Peralta
Holliday
Craig
Molina
Adams
Ellis
Bourjos
Pitcher

Jay will get his share of starts against RHP.  Robinson will probably get a few against LHP

     Thread Starter
 

12/18/2013 1:08 pm  #24


Re: Cardinals nearing deal with Mark Ellis

"Don't you think that the signing of Ellis suggests a possibility, if not a likelihood of a platoon at second base?"

I think it's more likely they don't want to be in a position where they'll have to trade one of their prospects for a second baseman in July in case Wong shits the bed.
Reading TK's post, it seems Jackson would have been just as good a fit as Kozma or Descalso. It's no doubt a dead issue at this point because Jackson is no longer with the organization, but some day I'd like to see some enterprising journalist dig into why he fell out of favor. He's supposed to be a better defensive shortstop than Kozma, and its hard to imagine he would have been worse offensively. Twenty-five plate appearances in two years under Matheny is hardly a tryout. There had to be some sort of issue that kept him languishing on the bench or in Memphis while Koz was fighting to stay above the Mendoza line during the second half of the season.

 

12/18/2013 1:13 pm  #25


Re: Cardinals nearing deal with Mark Ellis

artie_fufkin wrote:

"I'm not sure you guys were watching Descalso enough at shortstop if you think he can play there."

I don't disagree, but if you've just added a guy who has averaged 140 games at year at short, the choice between Descalso and Kozma becomes easy. You can get by with Descalso for those other 20 games, and he gives you the benefit of being able to play third and second. I'm reasonably certain Koz could also fill in second, but we don't know if he can play third. 
And that's without factoring in the offensive component, which Descalso obviously wins easily.

 

This is basicly my opinion as well.  Plus with a much better fielding 3rd baseman descalso's short comings may be tempered. I really dont see a need for a defensive replacements either.  U are not going to take wong, ellis or carp oit for better fielders.  Maybe peralta, so that would be an advantage of having kozma in the lineup.  A 8th or 9th inning defensjve replacement for peralta. 

Besides hitting the deciding factor to me is descalso ability to play 3 positions.  If kozma could do that i might pause and think about it for a second.  However he hasnt played 3rd or 2nd.  Something he might need to learn to extend his career.  It is simple.  Without descalso on the roster the team doesnt have a backup 3rd baseman.  You need one.  Every team has one.  So unless you expect carp to play 162 game descalso is on the 25 man.   If ellis or kozma can play third it might be a conversation.

 

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