1 of 1- APIAD
- Administrator
Offline 
- From: Central IL
- Registered: 9/07/2010
- Posts: 11,096
carp contract talks
Not sure id get involved in buying out his arbitration years. He had a historic 2013. Never is his stock going to be higher. I believe he has at least 3 years of arbitration left. I ride it out alittle longer.
- artie_fufkin
- Administrator
Offline
- From: God's Little Acre
- Registered: 9/08/2010
- Posts: 22,429
Re: carp contract talks
Yeah, I think I'd wait a bit on this one. One good year does not make a career. Supposedly, it's a 6-year deal.
- APIAD
- Administrator
Offline
- From: Central IL
- Registered: 9/07/2010
- Posts: 11,096
Re: carp contract talks
I dont understand why they would want to committ to this kind of money when they have 4 cost controled years left. Maybe it is backloaded with the last 2 years being options. I will wait and see before i bash it much more.
- •
Thread Starter- forsberg_us
- Administrator
Offline
- Registered: 9/08/2010
- Posts: 9,944
Re: carp contract talks
I think this simply follows a trend of what we've been seeing and will continue to see in MLB. Teams are locking up the players they think are worth keeping.
I agree it seems early, but both sides are buying certainty, and there's some value in that.
- tkihshbt
- Scott Rolen
Offline
- Registered: 9/07/2010
- Posts: 7,244
Re: carp contract talks
It's not early. Carpenter is a very good player who would be arbitration eligible starting next season. They could wait one more year to give him an extension, but it would be far more expensive. This is a deal that pays him between $8-9 million annually. It's a steal for a guy who is going to be good for a long time.
- forsberg_us
- Administrator
Offline
- Registered: 9/08/2010
- Posts: 9,944
Re: carp contract talks
6 years, $52M. Team option for the 7th season.
- tkihshbt
- Scott Rolen
Offline
- Registered: 9/07/2010
- Posts: 7,244
Re: carp contract talks
Very nice. Locking up Carpenter to a deal like this will give the team a better idea what to do going forward. It's a lot easier to plan long-term for guys like Lynn, Wacha, Miller, Rosenthal, etc., etc., when you've got your other pre-arb players locked up.
- APIAD
- Administrator
Offline
- From: Central IL
- Registered: 9/07/2010
- Posts: 11,096
Re: carp contract talks
It could be a good contract. I wont say it wont be. However id still have stuck to my original opinion that you ride out his arbitration years. That would have put carp past or on the backside of his prime. Now he is locked up till 2019 and till he is 33. A 33 year old 3rd baseman that will hit 10hrs and likely have a decline in his average. I wouldnt expect last year to repeat itself and now he is getting paid like it is going to. They didnt have to risk this money.
- •
Thread Starter- forsberg_us
- Administrator
Offline
- Registered: 9/08/2010
- Posts: 9,944
Re: carp contract talks
You're right they didn't have to risk the money and it is probably unlikely Carpenter repeats last season, but he doesn't have to produce at that level to justify the deal.
Yes the deal takes him until he's 33, but Carpenter doesn't rely on speed. His biggest asset is his command of the strike zone, and that skill tends to remain a little while longer.
I wouldn't count on Carpenter being a third baseman for all 6 years of this deal. I suspect he finds himself back at second at some point where his bat is a significant asset. Plus, as TK said, there's a benefit to the team to have some payroll certainty going into the future when they have to make decisions about players like Miller, Wacha and Martinez.
It's entirely possible that Carpenter falls on his face, but I don't see this as any different from the Allen Craig contract.
- APIAD
- Administrator
Offline
- From: Central IL
- Registered: 9/07/2010
- Posts: 11,096
Re: carp contract talks
Arbitration years do offer a sense of certainty, imo. And the difference between craig and carp is about 20 million dollars and the fact that u are paying for power and rbi production which cost more then average.
Im not dead set against this contract. I just wouldnt have done it. I think carp will be a everyday big leager for the length of the contract.
- •
Thread Starter- tkihshbt
- Scott Rolen
Offline
- Registered: 9/07/2010
- Posts: 7,244
Re: carp contract talks
It's really not smart to go year-to-year through arbitration, though. Carpenter has already banked one good season and one great season. If he comes anywhere close to coming in the middle of 2012 and 2013, he would be making north of $12-13 million every year.
- forsberg_us
- Administrator
Offline
- Registered: 9/08/2010
- Posts: 9,944
Re: carp contract talks
Per Cots
2014- $1.25M
2015- $3.75M
2016- $6.5M
2017- $10M
2018- $13.75M
2019- $14.75M
The thing is AP, when you do the long-term deal you get a discount over the arbitration years. Jon Jay is making $3.25M this season as an Arb 1 player. Carpenter's Arb 1 year will cost the Cardinals only $3.75M. When you take into account escalating salaries and the fact that Carpenter has already accomplished more than Jay has, Carpenter's Arb 1 season is probably easily worth somewhere in the $5-6M range. And future seasons' salaries naturally build off of the previous year's number. That's the potential benefit of not going year-to-year.
The downside is obvious , and we need not look any further than Jaime Garcia to see what can go wrong. But there isn't nearly as much difference between Carpenter and Craig. Yes, the total value is $20M more, but it's also a year longer which accounts for 3/4 of that money. So really the only difference between the two deals is one year and a year's worth of escalating salaries. And Craig can't drive in runs unless someone is on base in front of him.
Last edited by forsberg_us (3/10/2014 10:00 am)