AP this is like winning lottery, but missing the powerball, and only getting 1M instead of 235M.....

Don't even be bummed man, this team completely over-achieved considering the year. This is the equivalent of a small private school's football team running through the state tournament and getting eliminated in the semi-finals. We should be spraying champagne and screaming with how well this team ended up.

I saw on the post that tazeras wants to play winter ball.  Pat on the back to him for wishing to put in extra effort to improve.  Maybe matheny will go manage it.

I'm always amused when we get to the end of the NLCS or World Series, where the Cardinals didn't win it all, and people in here are fired up wanting drastic changes. Do you know how many times Bobby Cox won the world series with the Braves? 

This year the Cardinals premier power player, the offensive load carrier, "Mr. Clutch!", the RISP God of baseball hit .237 with this club before being traded to Boston and barely hitting HALF of that pathetic batting average there (.128) with Boston. 189 RBI's over the last two seasons, and he gets 2 in 29 games with Boston (1 being himself as he hit 1 home run). Nothing Matheny or anyone else could have done would have fixed that hole. 

If you consider this season to be anything less than a huge win from how we played until September to how we played since, I think you've probably been spoiled for far too long, and need a few "rebuilding years" to set your expectations to a more reasonable level...

Everyone knew that 2013 wasn't a repeatable year--the RISP avg. was a complete outlier.  There was going to be, and was, some regression back to the mean.

With that said, 2014 was far from a disaster--the team is one of the last 3 teams playing baseball.  But for a large part of the year, the team was virtually unwatchable.  There are absolutely parts of the team to be excited about, but there are just as equally areas of concern.

For me personally, manager is a big area of concern, but regardless of my opinion, I know it's a concern that will go unaddressed.  That means I expect another year (at least) of watching Nero playing the fiddle.  That's probably an over-exaggeration--Cardinal Nation is hardly crumbling--but would it surprise you if Wainwright or Rosenthal (or both) end up having some sort of off-season procedure resulting from overuse that was very preventable but for Matheny's stubborness of allowing Wainwright to finish 9-1 games or calling on Rosenthal to hold a 3-run lead when he's already pitched back-to-back days?  It wouldn't surprise me.

This playoff run (such that it is) has been quite nice, but honestly I've been looking ahead to 2015 for a while now.  Problem is, I don't like much of what I see. As you correctly pointed out, it's entirely possible--perhaps expected--that they do little to nothing.  Even with them playing in the LCS, I personally don't want to watch a repeat of 2014.  As you said, it isn't a particularly gifted team that probably wins more than it should, but isn't positioned to make a 3 week October run.

What would I like to see?  If they're going to make a move, it only makes sense to go big.  The team won 90 games, won the division and made it to the LCS.  Minor moves won't mean much to me.  If they're really disenchanted with Taveras, call Florida and find out what it's going to take to trade for Stanton.  Condition it on receiveing time to talk about an extension with his agent, and see if you can make something happen.  I think RF is the only position they can truly hope to make a splash.  There aren't many who make sense and who would, or might, be available.  Stanton's one name that fits.  It's going to cost you, but it sure would be pretty darn exciting to see a bat like that in the middle of the lineup.


 

Hoping the post-mortem is a little premature, but ...
I don't feel like the Cardinals won the lottery or are playing with house money. To me, they underachieved. Yadi said in ST this was on paper the best team he's been on. And I thought then and think now he was right. Despite all their latent talent, they were a second place team for most of the season that ended up playing well for about five weeks, which was good enough to win, as AP says, a division that was weaker than it was last year.
The starting pitching, despite injuries to Wacha and Garcia, kept them in it. I'm hoping Wacha has another decade ahead of him, but this injury scares me because people keep saying it's so unusual. They have Wainwright, Lynn, Miller and Lackey already making up 80 percent of their rotation for 2015, which is a good place to start. If Wacha can't go, you've got Gonzalez. So I wouldn't change much there.
As far as the lineup is concerned, I like the idea of kicking the tires on Giancarlo. Right now, they've got a number of #5 and #6 hitters but really no one to build a lineup around. Holliday is going to continue to regress. Adams probably isn't capable of much more than we've seen. They've got plenty of young, cheap pieces that would appeal to the Marlins. I'm torn about what to do with Taveras. He could be the centerpiece of a big trade that lands Stanton, but are you letting go of a guy who could be a .300/30/100 hitter? He didn't look like that to me. Centerpiece hitters aren't vulnerable to fastballs, which teams kept feeding Taveras after word started getting around that he couldn't catch up to heat.
Same deal with Rosenthal. Do you give up on a guy who can hit 100, but clearly didn't have the consistency required to be a major league closer? And it's not just the closer. The bullpen needs an overhaul.
Lastly, Matheny is going nowhere. We see him every day and therefore know his limitations, but I don't think there's another active manager in the majors who can say he's been to the LCS three years in a row. Only maybe Bruce Bochy has a better resume, and Bochy has been managing a lot longer than Matheny.
 

Last edited by artie_fufkin (10/16/2014 6:14 pm)

"Do you really think a number of managers couldnt have done what he did."

I think there are people on this board who could have won 90 games witth this team. One thing that may have gone overlooked is the Cardinals didn't get swept in a single series this year. That's almost unheard of, but it may have more to do with the starting pitching than anything Matheny did.
Managing isn't so much in-game decisions anymore as it is dealing with personalities in the clubhouse, and obviously that's where Matheny's strengths must lie. Except for Maness' girlfriend, I can't think of one time Matheny was publicly criticized from someone connected to the clubhouse. Again, that may say more about the players than management, but there's something about Matheny that engenders the loyality of the people who are working for him, and that's not always an easy thing to have.
 

alz wrote:

I'm not sure how we can think this team underachieved when we predicted them to lose at every turn.

It depends on when the expectations were measured.  Before the season, a lot of people thought this was a team well-positioned to get back to, and win the World Series.  The rotation looked set with Wainwright, Wacha, Lynn and Miller at the front-end, the bullpen was expected to be dominant with Siegrist, Martinez and Rosenthal manning the back-end, and the lineup was expected to be very good.  Relative to pre-season expectations, the team underachieved.

By July, a lot of flaws had been exposed.  The offense wasn't nearly as good as expected, in large part because the dunderhead boob who writes the lineup card on a daily basis kept inserting a .220 hitter with no power into the #4 spot.  The rotation, though good, had lost Wacha and Miller was erratic.  And the bullpen wasn't nearly the strength it was expected to be.  The team languished through most of the season and expectations were revised.

If you're basing it on expectations as of mid-late August, the team overachieved.  But if you're basing them on expectations in March, the team underachieved.


 

artie_fufkin wrote:

Lastly, Matheny is going nowhere. We see him every day and therefore know his limitations, but I don't think there's another active manager in the majors who can say he's been to the LCS three years in a row. Only maybe Bruce Bochy has a better resume, and Bochy has been managing a lot longer than Matheny.
 

I watched quite a few games this summer and the truth is that Matheny isn't wildly different as a tactician than many other managers. When we criticize Matheny, we're actually criticizing modern managing, which has gotten so cookie cutter that it's frightening. Very few managers are willing to go where La Russa would and think outside the box. Now, very few managers have La Russa's clout and force of personality and willingness to take detractors head on. What I do know is that in the NBA and NFL, coaching and philosophy is constantly evolving. Nobody is doing the same thing they were doing in 2004, yet managers are still managing baseball like they were in 1994.

artie_fufkin wrote:

"Do you really think a number of managers couldnt have done what he did."


Managing isn't so much in-game decisions anymore as it is dealing with personalities in the clubhouse, and obviously that's where Matheny's strengths must lie. Except for Maness' girlfriend, I can't think of one time Matheny was publicly criticized from someone connected to the clubhouse.
 

Id say the allen craig ordeal was a huge fuck up.  Letting some family feeling get in the way of making the correct lineup is a huge screw up in the clubhouse.  Maybe the players like the family feeling but having a good clubhouse isnt just about the players being comfortable.  In fact the opposite is neededmin some cases.  There is always a need for balance and mo had to step in get that.  Thats on MM.

As for in game decisions i think thempost season shed lightmon that as a bigger flaw in MM managing.  The post season isnt 162 games long.  You cant ride out an oddity and wait for a return to the mean.  It is actual managing.  Managing with ur eyes in high speed.  He failed and was way over matched.

APIAD wrote:

alz wrote:

Well Matheny putting Wacha out there was certainly abnormal.... I don't know any other manager that would do that.

 

Exactly!!!!! It isnt that they lost...it is how they lost... ill say it again. It isnt how they lost. MM dumb ass moves are the only thing i have issue with really.

As to tk opinion that MM is just managing like other mangers...idk, i can see that and not see it.

Rolling rosenthal out 3 days in a row knowing what keeps occuring in that situation is poor managing.

Over using waino when the game is in hand is poor managing

He handling of the bullpen is poor managing. He didnt get enough out of his bet bullpen pitchers in the right situation.

Pinch hitting for borgous last night was pokr managing.

His handling of allen craig was poor managing.

Maybe some other manager would have made some of the same mistake but all of them? I dont think so.

I'm going to agree and disagree with some of this. 
Pinch hitting Tavarez I didn't actually have an issue with. Tavarez is a much more capable hitter to me than Borjous. That's not really a compliment though, I'm pretty sure Fors is a much more capable hitter than Borjous is.

Removing Wainright I hated. He's your ace, and there's no tomorrow. Until he gives up a baserunner, he shouldn't move. So contrary to what you said about over-using him (I'm guessing during the season), I'd have worked him like there was no tomorrow in postseason. If I'm managing a game that ends up in a loss, I'd rather lose with my best pitcher than to lose because of someone like Choate.

Rosenthal .... Baseball is a funny world, and you expect there to be down times, but Rosenthal was shit the entire postseason. I would like to think that Rosey would have been in there in the 9th if he wasn't pitching like garbage.

Putting Wacha in however, was awful. I can't defend that. It was stupid. There were plenty of times to get him in before during the playoffs.

What I can say however, is that Matheny had very little in the bullpen he could count on for anything during this postseason. To me, I'd have probably tried avoiding using them altogether and ran starters out there longer, as I mentioned earlier with Waino. This would have meant leaving Miller in too long, or leaving Lackey in. Might have worked out, might have blown up too. 

Allen Craig went to Boston and barely put up half the average he had here, and had no power numbers at all. 1 HR//2 RBI's and a .128 BA. I'm hesitant to dump that on MM because it sure looks like MM got way more out of Craig than Boston ever did. 

If you can, take a look at the bullpen stats.
Martinez 2.250 WHIP
Gonzalez had a 9.00 ERA
Choate had a 9.00 ERA and a 4.00 WHIP
Rosenthal had a 6.00 WHIP and a 13.50 ERA
Wacha ...... hadn't played in nearly a month. Gets a pass, but terrible stats too.

That really just leaves you with Maness and Neshak, who he went with, and gave up his first hit of the series... a game tying home run....

Now what does this mean? I don't know. I think our bullpen was a trainwreck largely, and instead of helping the problem, Matheny's moves did not solve anything in that regard. I'd like for us to get into a mode where our bullpen has roles, and we can trust them largely to do those jobs. I understand baseball is a game you have to manage probabilities on, and the likelihood that we can play so badly at so many different spots defensively at the most key times .... 

It seems more than just bad random chance to me, but Adams pretty much handed game 4 to the Giants, Choate gave them game 3 (Matheny could have saved this), Matheny gave them game 5, our defense gave them game 1...

Too many players decided to bring out their worst games in the field at the wrong times.