artie_fufkin wrote:

"Mizzou has 2 losses"

I must have misread that. 
I think in a perfect world - well, in a perfect world you have an actual tournament with 16 teams, but that's another argument - you take the champions of the SEC, the Big 12, the Pac 12 and the ACC, because they seem to be the four best conferences, at least this year. 
But then you have the argument the second-best team in the SEC might be better than the champion of at least one of those leagues. But, the reigning national champ is from the ACC, so maybe there's an argument the SEC isn't as good as it thinks it is (especially if the team that ends up winning the SEC West has a loss to Indiana on its resume).
And, again, if Notre Dame ends up with one loss, there's no way they're not in the Final Four. There'd be so much caterwauling that all of our ears would bleed.

Notre Dame needs a ton of help.  They don't have a single win against a currently ranked opponent.  They can change that this weekend, but as you can see from the current ranking, Notre Dame's resume didn't impress the panel, and they really only have one more shot at an impressive win.

The SEC East sucks this season (Missouri is in the SEC E, not the SEC W).  Missouri isn't very good which is fully recognized by the fact that at 7-2 and despite the fact they're leading the SEC E, they aren't ranked in any of the polls.  But the SEC West is ridiculously good.  LSU is 5th in the division and would have already clinched the SEC E if they were in that division.  There are 5 teams in the SECW that are arguably as good as any other team in the country.

The picture is murky now, but it will start to clear itself up in the next few weeks.  Right now there are 11 teams with only 1 loss.  But just this weekend alone we have K. State playing TCU, Michigan St. playing Ohio State and Notre Dame playing ASU.  That guarantees the pool gets narrowed.  You also have three 1-loss teams playing on the road against very tough 2-loss opponents (Alabama v. LSU, Oregon v. Utah and Baylor v. Oklahoma).  Damn, what a great weekend of football.  

Down the road, Alabama and Auburn still have to play each other, Arizona and ASU still have to play and Nebraska will have to play the winner of OSU/MSU.  My guess, by the time the playoff selection is finalized, we're down to 5-6 teams with 1-loss or less.  

I think it eventually expands to an 8 team tournament with the 5 power conference champions getting an automatic spot and 3 wild card teams.  Of course the rest of you non-SEC conferences are still going to complain when the SEC gets 2 of the 3 wild card spots.  

artie_fufkin wrote:

"The SEC East sucks this season (Missouri is in the SEC E, not the SEC W)'"

How the hell does that work? I suppose if Atlanta and Cincinnati can be in the NL West under the old alignment and Dallas can still be in the AFC East, then anything is possible geographically. 

And I'm not advocating Notre Dame's inclusion. I just think it's going to be tough to keep them out if they end up with one loss. The rules that specifically give advantages to Notre Dame are just ridiculous. It's the same way the NFL treats the Patriots, but I guess you have to give the NCAA at least a little bit of credit for admitting its bias.

Well for Notre Dame, there's simply the vote of the committee, Tyrone Willingham (a former coach) is on that committee, so that might help their cause. It's their decision that goes. 

Currently they have 
1. Mississippi State
2. Florida State
3. Auburn
4. Mississippi
5. Oregon
6. Alabama
7. TCU
8. Michigan State
9. Kansas State
10. Notre Dame

I'd expect some movement with Ole Miss losing to Auburn, but I can't see how Notre Dame can jump 5 teams in the next 3 weeks myself. 

Usually I consider Matt Forde's opinions to be garbage, but this is possible, and hilarious should it occur.

As an avowed sower of discord and champion of chaos, here is exactly what The Dash wants to see happen over the next four weeks:

LSU (7) wins out. The Tigers would finish 10-2 overall, 6-2 in the SEC, with victories over Alabama and Ole Miss and losses to Auburn and Mississippi State.
Alabama (8) loses Saturday in Baton Rouge, then wins out to finish 10-2 overall, 6-2 in the SEC. The Crimson Tide would have wins over Mississippi State and Auburn, and losses to Mississippi and LSU.
Auburn (9) defeats Georgia on Nov. 15, but loses to Alabama in the Iron Bowl to finish 10-2 overall, 6-2 in the SEC. The Tigers would have wins over LSU and Ole Miss, and losses to Mississippi State and Alabama.
Mississippi (10) regroups from the disastrous ending Saturday night to win out and finish 10-2 overall, 6-2 in the SEC. The Rebels would have wins over Alabama and Mississippi State, and losses to LSU and Auburn.
Mississippi State (11) finally falls, losing on the road to Alabama on Nov. 15 and in the Egg Bowl on Nov. 29, finishing 10-2 overall, 6-2 in the SEC. The Bulldogs would have wins over LSU and Auburn, and losses to Alabama and Ole Miss.

And there you’d have it: five teams with identical records, and all with 2-2 marks against each other. No massive upsets required the rest of the way, just a lot of teams defending home field. Let the SEC have fun with that tiebreaker.

Good luck picking playoffs if something like that happens....

Last edited by alz (11/04/2014 2:45 pm)

alz wrote:

forsberg_us wrote:

Of course the rest of you non-SEC conferences are still going to complain when the SEC gets 2 of the 3 wild card spots.  

There is nothing quite as annoying as a Mizzou fan coat-tailing on SEC greatness. lol

Mizzou is in line to win it's 2nd SECE division title in 3 seasons.  The SEC is coat-tailing on our greatness.  

"That would be all sorts of awesome."

It would, because you'd either have to omit the 2-loss champ from the SEC or a 1-loss champ of one of the other conferences. Either way, the caterwauling would be so loud the NCAA would have to create a real playoff system instead of this stupid hybrid that continues to acquiesce to the old farts dressed in their polyester blazers and white loafers who subsist on the revenue from the bowls.

So now we're down to 2 significant unbeatens and 7 significant 1-loss teams (Marshall and Duke don't count).  At least 2 of the 1-loss teams have to lose (Pac 12  and Big 10 championships, if not sooner. That could leave as many as 7 teams for 4 spots.

I assume FSU is in. They have no one left on their schedule who should give them trouble. I think MSU is in, so long as it only ends up with 1 loss (especially if that loss is to Alabama). And I think Alabama is in if it runs the table, but cannot survive another loss.

Who's out. I don't think OSU will make the playoff even if it ends with 1 loss. Right now I think Baylor is out, though I'm not sure why since it beat TCU. It's possible that neither enter into consideration since the Big XII doesn't have a championship game.

I think anyone with 2 losses will be excluded (rightfully so). If Bama can win out, I think it's looking like FSU, MSU, Bama and the Pac 12 winner. If Bama loses (or if MSU loses twice, the TCU probably gets the 4th spot.

forsberg_us wrote:

I'll say the top 10 in the playoff ranking are:

Oregon
Bama
FSU
MSU
TCU
Baylor
OSU
Ole Miss
UCLA
Georgia

I'm grieving a little bit for Artie. I thought ASU was going to win that game early. 

The CFP I'm calling
1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Florida State
4. Mississippi State
5. Baylor
6. TCU
7. Ohio State
8. Ole Miss
9. UCLA
10. Michigan State

Some minor differences. I think the win against Miss St will vault Alabama to the top. Florida State nearly losing to Miami should keep them down at three. TCU struggling like they did against Kansas makes me want to put Baylor over them considering Baylor did beat them (by 3, in Baylor though). I moved Georgia up, but not all the way to 10. I have them at 11. Auburn is 7-3 now, I can't give Georgia 5 points for that win.

 

Well, you were right about Bama jumping Oregon. I correctly had TCU remaining #5 and Georgia jumping to 10, and neither of us had Ohio State jumping to 6.

IMO, little activity among the top 10--probably no change at all in the top 5.  None of the teams played anyone of significance, and all won handily.

I wouldn't be surprised if Baylor jumped Ohio State.  OSU was unimpressive against Indiana, and I think the committee has to position Baylor to jump TCU down the road.

Obviously, Ole Miss plummets after being embarassed by Arkansas.  Michigan State should into the top 10.

 

In fairness, Arkansas is much better than it's record.  Lost to Alabama by a point, lost to aTm in OT and was coming off a shutout of LSU.  Couple that with Ole Miss having its heart ripped out in the Auburn loss, that result didn't shock me.

Believe me, I'm very worried about this weekend's Arkansas/Mizzou game.

But in the end Alz, it's really simple.  If the rest of the conferences think the SEC is mostly hype, then step up and beat them.  I get a chuckle when I read people talk about the SEC schools being overrated, yet then can't explain why the B1G's division leader, Wisconsin couldn't beat LSU (6th place SEC-West) or why the Big XII's co-leader, K-State couldn't beat Auburn (t-3rd SEC-W).

Last edited by forsberg_us (11/24/2014 3:39 pm)

"Oregon State has the ability to punch anyone in the mouth."

Word ...

Last edited by artie_fufkin (11/24/2014 10:13 pm)

Back-to-back SEC East Championships!!!!

Suck it Georgia!!!!

Okay .... One more game. Arizona. Avenge the loss, win the day, and Oregon will have one of the 4 seats to play in January. Lose, and it was a very good season, I'm sure we'll dominate the Galaxy S5 Bowl against UTSA....

I have very real reasons to be concerned here, and reasons to be upbeat. I think Oregon wins this game, their offensive line is healthier and working, Mariota is running well, and nothing will be surprising us from Arizona's side. 

Other news. Alabama-Missouri, game will be close I think. Very tough. Expect Missouri to throw everything they have at the Tide, and don't be shocked if it is enough.

Ohio State - Wisconsin. Ohio State playing with their 3rd string QB. Win and they could be in, but that's a really sad set of circumstances to deal with at this point. 

Florida State-Georgia Tech. Fuck it, I'm calling this right now. Georgia Tech wins. Why? Florida State has looked like shit for a month, and they are eventually going to lose because of it. I'm hoping they win though, because if Oregon gets through Arizona that leaves us with Florida State in the playoffs, and I think they are the weakest team in the top 4.