Adding Grienke puts the Brewers on the map.  In fact on paper I wouldnt put them to far behind the Cardinals.

tkihshbt wrote:

Looks really good...

ERA/WHIP/BAA

Gallardo 3.84/1.37/.251
Grienke 4.17/1.25/.260
Marcum 3.64/1.15/.242    
Wolf 4.17/1.39/.258
Capuano 3.95/1.3/259


Now I suppose someone can pull out some fancier statistics to show that this is bunch is better than that, but on paper, using conventional statistics for last season, our starting five are WAY better than theirs, as much as it hurts for a divisional rival to add "legitimate help" and likely an impact player.

tkihshbt wrote:

I don't know how our starters are WAY better. Better, but the Brewers have made up a lot of ground with Marcum and now Greinke.

Well, I know these are the statistics of the last century, but, excepting the big question marks--will Lohse be effective? will Carp stay healthy? will Garcia be able to repeat and show greater endurance?--we seem to be about a whole run better than them, on average.  That's WAY better in my book.

ERA/WHIP/BAA

Chris Carpenter 3.22/1.18/.244
Adam Wainwright 2.42/1.05/.224
Jaime García: 2.7/1.32/.243
Kyle Lohse: 6.55/1.78/.336
Jake Westbrook: 3.48/1.25/.242

Gallardo 3.84/1.37/.251
Grienke 4.17/1.25/.260
Marcum 3.64/1.15/.242     
Wolf 4.17/1.39/.258
Capuano 3.95/1.3/259

tkihshbt wrote:

Marcum just had a season comparable to Carpenter, while pitching on carpet in Toronto. Grienke is still one of the best pitchers in the league. I just don't see how the Cardinals are going to be way better than the Brewers.

And Grienke pitched in the AL.  Plus there lineup isnt bad.  They dont have a player that is as good as Holliday or Pujols but Fielder, Weeks, Mecegee, Braun and Hart are not bad at all.

tkihshbt wrote:

The only good thing is that they'll still have a terrible defense.

And now so do we.

That's a pollyanna-ish way of looking at it.

Jake Westbrook's ERA last year was actually 4.22. He had a 3.48 ERA with the Cardinals. Why do you think Grienke (who was the CYA winner two years ago) and Marcum will not see the same improvement?

tkihshbt wrote:

That's a pollyanna-ish way of looking at it.

Jake Westbrook's ERA last year was actually 4.22. He had a 3.48 ERA with the Cardinals. Why do you think Grienke (who was the CYA winner two years ago) and Marcum will not see the same improvement?

The obvious answer being that playing for the Cardinals is not the same as playing for Brewers, particularly with Dave Duncan being famous for helping veteran pitchers improve their game.

But play it your way, let's give Markum and Greinke the same improvement in ERA that Westbrook got, and we still top them by +/- 0.5 earned runs at every single spot in the rotation, except that of Lohse.  And frankly, even a 0.5 differential in ERA across the first four starting pitchers in the rotation is a huge advantage in that phase of the game. 


Adam Wainwright 2.42 vs. Marcum 2.9

Chris Carpenter 3.22 vs. Gallardo 3.84

Jaime García: 2.7 vs. Greinke 3.43

Jake Westbrook: 3.48 vs. Capuano 3.95

Kyle Lohse: 6.55vs. Wolf 4.17

Look, if you think Grienke-Gallardo-Marcum-Wolf is going to be some lightweight compared to the Cardinals, be my guest. But I believe they've put together a rotation that can match St. Louis' and that they are now legitimate players in an already weak division.

Just looking I would say that the Cardinals rotation will be more prone to injury as well.

tkihshbt wrote:

Look, if you think Grienke-Gallardo-Marcum-Wolf is going to be some lightweight compared to the Cardinals, be my guest. But I believe they've put together a rotation that can match St. Louis' and that they are now legitimate players in an already weak division.

I agree with the last statement.  But FWIW, all I said is that if you look at last century's statistics, like ERA/WHIP/BAA, and last years stats, our rotation is still WAY better than theirs.  That's pretty much unassailable because of the conditions I put on the statement.  If you want to explain why we should relax the conditions (e.g. Markum and Greinke were pitching in the AL), or use more advanced statistics, be my guest.  But even if you do all that, and you are able to show that we are not WAY better than them, I still think each match-up falls in our favor, particularly at the top of the order.  For example:

Wainwright vs. Greinke
Carpenter vs. Markum
Garcia vs. Capuano
Westbrook vs. Wolf
Lohse vs. Gallardo

Match them up anyway you feel is appropriate at we can take a look.

Based on pure ability and what he did in 2009, Grienke is a better pitcher than Wainwright. He's got the ability to be the best pitcher on the planet. And I think he's only 27.

Gallardo is only 25 and has overpowering stuff. Unfortunately for us, he's only going to get better. And it's very likely that he passes up Carpenter this season, considering that Carp is 36. Heck, you even pondered last year if Carpenter is through as an ace-type pitcher. I think he's going to be very good, but Gallardo will be better.

Marcum keeps the ball in the park, doesn't walk many batters and misses his share of bats. I've already stated that going from the AL East to the NL Central is going to improve his numbers.

Wolf isn't much different from Westbrook, except that he's a fly ball pitcher.

Capuano/Parra/Whoever matches up quite well with Lohse, who stinks.

tkihshbt wrote:

Based on pure ability and what he did in 2009, Grienke is a better pitcher than Wainwright. He's got the ability to be the best pitcher on the planet. And I think he's only 27.

Gallardo is only 25 and has overpowering stuff. Unfortunately for us, he's only going to get better. And it's very likely that he passes up Carpenter this season, considering that Carp is 36. Heck, you even pondered last year if Carpenter is through as an ace-type pitcher. I think he's going to be very good, but Gallardo will be better.

Marcum keeps the ball in the park, doesn't walk many batters and misses his share of bats. I've already stated that going from the AL East to the NL Central is going to improve his numbers.

Wolf isn't much different from Westbrook, except that he's a fly ball pitcher.

Capuano/Parra/Whoever matches up quite well with Lohse, who stinks.

"Carp is getting older and stopped short of having to reinvent himself in 2010.  In all likelyhood Garcia cant be as good as he was in 2010.  Westbrook hasnt had a below 4 ERA when pitching over 200 innings but once, in 2004."

We'll just have to see.  But for the record, If we credit Gallardo for being 25, good and getting better, then why not credit Garcia as being 24, good and getting better?

Somewhere between Chicken Little and Pollyanna it will all get sorted out on the field.  My own prediction is that Wainwright stays strong, Garcia improves his endurance at some small cost to his ERA, Carp continues the slow managed slide to a late-career Maddux type location pitcher, Westbrook has a career year under Duncan, and I have strong hope that Lohse is finally better.

Frankly I take issue with saying he sucks, when he is obviously injured.  It reminds me of when Mulder was trying to make a go of it, and he allowed something like 113 ER in 0.0IP, and several of us, myself included were screaming at the typewriter that he sucked.  Someone, I forget who, wrote, "I can't believe what I'm hearing, Mulder is obviously injured."  And he was, and his career was over.  So, I think it's a bit harsh to say someone sucks when they are struggling with some amount of courage to overcome what may well be a career-ending injury.

So, I am guessing our rotation's ERA looks about like this:

Wainwright: 2.5 - 3.0 (200+ IP)
Garcia: 3.0 - 3.5 (180+ IP)
Carpenter: 3.0 - 3.5 (180+ IP)
Westbrook: 3.5 - 4.0 (200+ IP)
Lohse: 4.0 - 4.5 (180+ IP)

Last edited by Max (12/20/2010 12:24 pm)