Garcia certainly COULD get better, but if he's going to get better than having a 2.72 ERA, it appears the Cardinals will have one of the best lefties ever. I guess I'm not willing to go there.

tkihshbt wrote:

Garcia certainly COULD get better, but if he's going to get better than having a 2.72 ERA, it appears the Cardinals will have one of the best lefties ever. I guess I'm not willing to go there.

Look at my prediction for him.

No, he's aware of it because we used to have the Hawks.

Analyses of the Greinke deal are coming in:

Goold: Mozeliak says Wainwright is still the best starting pitcher in the division, and I agree with him for once, and Wainwright says that, excepting Philadelphia, our rotation still compares favorably to any in the NL, and I agree with him, too.

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/article_d12381db-ef63-5b08-a71c-0bc280b83af8.html

Leach: The addition of Greinke may make the Brewers the favorites to win "a division in which no other contender has seriously improved itself this winter."  And I thank Leach for pointing that out to Mozeliak and the rest of the world.  Also, for all my comments about 'our SP is still better than theirs', I realize that's just one phase of them game, and the Brewers scored a lot more runs than we did.  They took their problem seriously and gave it serious fixes, whereas we dithered and are taking a 'muddle through' approach.  Leach's summary is apt "The Cardinals have done an extensive retooling, but the main gains seem to be in the clubhouse. The Redbirds' offense will likely be improved, but at the cost of some not-insignificant defensive downgrades."

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101220&content_id=16350908&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

Last edited by Max (12/21/2010 11:07 am)

forsberg_us wrote:

Max, I think part of the difference of opinion comes from simply looking at Grienke's 2010 numbers.  Grienke didn't pitch well in 2010, but I'm very concerned that Grienke's switch to the NL could lead to a reprisal of his 2009 numbers.  If you put those numbers into your comparison, you get this

Wainwright v. Grienke   2.42 v. 2.16
Carpenter v. Gallardo  3.22 v. 3.84
Garcia v. Marcum   2.7 v. 2.9
Westbrook v. Capuano   3.48 v. 3.95
Lohse v. Wolf    6.55 v. 4.17


I believe Milwaukee is closer than you might think

Here's Goold's analysis, and using ERA+, our rotation still looks WAY better than theirs, on paper, at least.  And we match up against them very solidly.  Now you can make the argument that things will not go our way, and there is no arguing with that, but the bare numbers indicate they are still not all that close to us, in terms of starting rotation:

Wainwright: 161 ERA+  vs.  Marcum: 114 ERA+
Garcia: 145 ERA+  vs.  Gallardo: 103 ERA+
Carpenter: 122 ERA+  vs. Greinke: 100 ERA+
Westbrook: 92 ERA+*  vs. Wolf 95 ERA+
* Westbrook had a 113 ERA+ in the NL after the trade to the Cardinals.

If things go like they did last year, we kick their ass in each starting pitcher match-up.


http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/article_e2c74946-0c55-11e0-a753-00127992bc8b.html

Last edited by Max (12/26/2010 7:19 pm)

forsberg_us wrote:

Max wrote:

forsberg_us wrote:

Max, I think part of the difference of opinion comes from simply looking at Grienke's 2010 numbers.  Grienke didn't pitch well in 2010, but I'm very concerned that Grienke's switch to the NL could lead to a reprisal of his 2009 numbers.

Here's Goold's analysis, and using ERA+, our rotation still looks WAY better than theirs, on paper, at least.  And we match up against them very solidly.  Now you can make the argument that things will not go our way, and there is no arguing with that, but the bare numbers indicate they are still not all that close to us, in terms of starting rotation:

Wainwright: 161 ERA+  vs.  Marcum: 114 ERA+
Garcia: 145 ERA+  vs.  Gallardo: 103 ERA+
Carpenter: 122 ERA+  vs. Greinke: 100 ERA+
Westbrook: 92 ERA+*  vs. Wolf 95 ERA+
* Westbrook had a 113 ERA+ in the NL after the trade to the Cardinals.

If things go like they did last year, we kick their ass in each starting pitcher match-up.


http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/article_e2c74946-0c55-11e0-a753-00127992bc8b.html

Again, my concern is that Milwaukee gets 2009 Greinke, not 2010 Greinke.  In that case the numbers look like this

Greinke: 205 ERA+ v. Wainwright: 161 ERA+    Advantage:  Brewers
Marcum: 114 ERA+ v. Garcia 145 ERA+           Advantage: Cardinals
Gallardo: 103 ERA+ v. Carpeneter 122 ERA+    Advantage: Cardinals
Wolf: 95 ERA+ v. Westbrook 92 ERA+ (or 113 ERA+ with Cardinals)  Advantage: Depends

If Greinke is 2010 Greinke, then I would agree that the Cardinals have a pretty big edge.

Will Greinke pitch like it's 1999, er . . . 2009?
Will Carpenter's arm fall off?
Will Markum experience a large cut in his ERA on his move to the NL?
Will Garcia be able to pitch anything at all like he did last year?
Will Gallardo get better and develop into a true number 1 ace?
Will Wainwright suddenly suck?
Will one of the other back of the rotation pitchers on the Brewers staff get better?
Will Westbrook's improved ERA be shortlived, and return to the mid 4's?

There are a lot of variables, and as your Greinke example shows, if one or two go in their favor, our rotation is still better, but by a smaller degree.  Lots of things would have to go well for them, and go badly for us, for their rotation to be better than ours.  Which isn't to say we will be better.  I would love to see one true impact player that brings both an offensive and defensive upgrade at one position: RF, 3B, SS, 2B.  Maybe the Pads will give us Ludwick back?

Exactly.  They have a better lineup and a rotation that is debatible as good as the Cardinals.  Like I said before I would give the Cardinals bullpen an edge.

forsberg_us wrote:

Max wrote:

There are a lot of variables, and as your Greinke example shows, if one or two go in their favor, our rotation is still better, but by a smaller degree.  Lots of things would have to go well for them, and go badly for us, for their rotation to be better than ours.  Which isn't to say we will be better.

The issue with the Greinke "variable" is why was he worse.  2009 was undoubtedly the top end of his ability and may not be achievable again.  But, if you believe the stories that he rationed sliders to save wear and tear on his arm, than a 2011 improvement should be expected.

Also Max, the issue here isn't whether or not Milwaukee's rotation is better than ours, it's whether it's close enough to provide their offense enough support.  With Fielder, Braun, Weeks, Hart and McGehee, et al Milwaukee has a superior offense.

We don't disagree on any of that.

artie_fufkin wrote:

Looks like the Brewers have decided to go with Narveson over Capuano.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/112528034.html

This is the kind of low-hanging fruit the Cardinals ought to go after.

We've gone after KC cast-offs and, much to everyone's surprise, made it work for a while.  Why Brewers' cast-offs?

"I wonder what Braden Looper is doing these days."

He's a looper. A jock. You know. A caddie. Once toted a bag for the Dali Lama himself. Long hitter, the Lama. But tight with a rupee. Stiffed Braden on the tip. But on his deathbed, he will receive total consciousness. So he's got that going for him. Which is nice.

forsberg_us wrote:

Max wrote:

artie_fufkin wrote:

Looks like the Brewers have decided to go with Narveson over Capuano.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/112528034.html

This is the kind of low-hanging fruit the Cardinals ought to go after.

We've gone after KC cast-offs and, much to everyone's surprise, made it work for a while.  Why Brewers' cast-offs?

Was that supposed to read "Why NOT Brewers' cast-offs?"

yes.