tkihshbt wrote:

artie_fufkin wrote:

If the Cardinals end up signing Pujols for, say $250 million for 10 years, I'm not sure it changes much, at least so far. The four big contracts they've given since Pujols left are to Wainwright, Molina, Peralta and Carpenter. Do they let Yadi or Wainwright walk? Probably not. They probably find a cheaper option than Peralta and maybe don't extend Carpenter as far as they have, but the makeup of the team isn't substantially different.

I agree here, except for Carpenter. Carpenter probably doesn't emerge if Pujols re-signs. The opening day lineup in 2012 has Molina, Freese, Furcal, Schumaker, Pujols, Holliday, Jay and Berkman, with Craig on standby after getting hurt.

You're right the team wouldn't look too much different, but they definitely wouldn't have Peralta; Carpenter might not have gotten much of an opportunity in 2012; Wacha is never drafted; and the team is burdened by paying a one-footed first baseman $25 million. I think Mozeliak would've made moves to fix this at some point, but I strongly believe winning the World Series in 2011 saved them from a semi-bleak future.

There was some outrage locally, but just in my opinion, I think Didi Pujols could've been the most gracious wife of the second-richest baseball player of all-time and the Cardinals still survive. The memory of that World Series was too fresh; people were enamored with Allen Craig and other than his 3-homer game, Pujols didn't exactly dominate the Rangers.
 

Your point about Wacha is valid and something I overlooked. He's probably gone by the time the Cardinals get to their own pick. I disagree, however, that Carpenter would have been buried. They had already started to sour on Freese.
 

forsberg_us wrote:

The one thing that I always said when we had these discussions with Max is I firmly believe that DeWitt's sense of urgency as an owner diminished after they won the World Series in 2006. Getting a 2nd one in 2011 was a bonus.

To their credit, going into the 2011 off-season, they believed more strongly in than farm system than probably any of us (with the likely exception of TK) felt they should. As of 2011, there had been only signs that the minors might start producing talent. Craig had emerged as a valuable utility player, and there were pieces in the bullpen like Motte and Lynn, but up until that point the most significant contribution any of their draft picks had made were Brett Wallace, Chris Perez and Colby Rasmussen being traded. Since then, the system has produced enough talent that may have been able to withstand signing Pujols, but there's no doubt it's better that they didn't.

 
They might have gotten a little lucky with Adams and Rosenthal and Siegrist, and Wacha and Wong developed much quicker than probably anyone thought they would. But hey, they picked all those kids when other teams had a shot, so there.