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Stat Geek, Projections and Acronyms
I enjoy reading projections during the offseason but dont real get what they mean or how the number are predicted. The one I was looking at was linked to off of VEB.
here is the 2010 predictions
- Max
- Colby Rasmus
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Re: Stat Geek, Projections and Acronyms
APRTW wrote:
I enjoy reading projections during the offseason but dont real get what they mean or how the number are predicted. The one I was looking at was linked to off of VEB.
here is the 2010 predictions
One of the funny things about reading the 2010 predictions--questionable starting pitching, but a solid offense that should pull them through--was that reality was the opposite of the prediction.
Name Pred ERA Actual ERA
Adam Wainwright 3.15 2.42
Chris Carpenter 3.47 3.22
Jaime Garcia* 4.75 2.7
- Max
- Colby Rasmus
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Re: Stat Geek, Projections and Acronyms
One of the things about a statistical prediction is that it comes with error bars, usually indicating something like the 95% confidence interval. Those predictions don't indicate the error (i.e. range) but I am guessing it is something like this:
Name Pred ERA 95% confidence interval
Adam Wainwright 3.15 2.15 - 5.75
- artie_fufkin
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Re: Stat Geek, Projections and Acronyms
95% confidence interval
2.15 - 5.75
In that spirit, I have a 95% confidence level the Cardinals will win between 45-125 games. Wonder what kind of odds on that I'd get in Vegas?
- Max
- Colby Rasmus
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- From: Pacific Northwest
- Registered: 9/07/2010
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Re: Stat Geek, Projections and Acronyms
95% confidence interval
2.15 - 5.75
In that spirit, I have a 95% confidence level the Cardinals will win between 45-125 games. Wonder what kind of odds on that I'd get in Vegas?
20 pays 21