Glad that's been put to rest.

forsberg_us wrote:

Per Moz

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/article_1985b01b-9f85-55d8-b235-7588e759ffea.html


Doesn't everyone feel better now?   (grin) (grin) (grin)

Moz: "I think this is going to be a good defensive club, if not better."

As long as you are willing to back that prediction up by putting your job on the line, there isn't much more that we can ask of you as fans, Mr. Mozeliak.

artie_fufkin wrote:

Full marks to Skippy for trying to improve his defense, and third has to be better now that Felony has been purged, but I just don't see how you substitute Theriot and Berkman for Ryan and Ludwick and suddenly pronounce yourself a better team defensively.

The pronounciation is rather easy. I pronouce that Miami will win the Super Bowl, and that I will beat Smell the Glove in the finals. Both of those aren't just unlikely, they are (at this point) impossibilities. I can pronounce anything I want!

I can't say I expected Moz to grab a mic and say, "We really have a shit team defensively, and I doubt we can make up for that at the plate. I think I made a bumbling mess of the off-season, but this is the team we have."

Actually, though probably more accurate, I would be pretty shocked if Moz said anything like that.

alz wrote:

artie_fufkin wrote:

Full marks to Skippy for trying to improve his defense, and third has to be better now that Felony has been purged, but I just don't see how you substitute Theriot and Berkman for Ryan and Ludwick and suddenly pronounce yourself a better team defensively.

The pronounciation is rather easy. I pronouce that Miami will win the Super Bowl, and that I will beat Smell the Glove in the finals. Both of those aren't just unlikely, they are (at this point) impossibilities. I can pronounce anything I want!

I can't say I expected Moz to grab a mic and say, "We really have a shit team defensively, and I doubt we can make up for that at the plate. I think I made a bumbling mess of the off-season, but this is the team we have."

Actually, though probably more accurate, I would be pretty shocked if Moz said anything like that.

Good points. I'd just rather not have Moz insult my intelligence. My mother-in-law handles that.

Fors, this article is well written, and sounds exactly like the redbird reports I keep hearing on ESPN radio.

Here's some real plus sides to the team.

1) I don't hate Holiday/Rasmus in the outfield. Berkman scares the hell out of me, but we played many games with Chris Duncan in the outfield, and somehow found a good deal of success despite him playing like he was on waterskis.
2) <Inset random name here> is a valid, 100% legitimate upgrade over Felipe. For the sake of the opening day roster, we'll pen "David Freese" in here for now.
3) Skip Schumaker is doing lots of extra work to not suck defensively. This cannot hurt our middle infield, unless he hurts himself doing the work.
4) Theriot.... Could be a downgrade from the defense we're used to getting out of Ryan. Offensively he cannot be as bad as what we got out of Ryan last season. I'd expect this to even itself out. We'll have some innings extended where he couldn't make a play, but we'll have some innings extended because he managed to find himself on first base instead of making every opposing pitcher look like Nolan Ryan. Schumaker said he could have probably changed 5 games in last years schedule had he played better... Ryan's bat probably cost us 10-15. The other side to this, and I put some small stock in this side-fact. Theriot probably won't be viewed as a complete and utter dick-weed like Ryan was to the rest of the team. People can say this doesn't matter, but I can't envision a world where I play just as well when I want to go out and beat the Shortstop into the ground with a bat as I do when I'm solely focused on the game. I'll assume, even among professionals, this is a plus to the team, even if it's minor.

Meh we'll see.

forsberg_us wrote:

artie_fufkin wrote:

Full marks to Skippy for trying to improve his defense, and third has to be better now that Felony has been purged, but I just don't see how you substitute Theriot and Berkman for Ryan and Ludwick and suddenly pronounce yourself a better team defensively.

And you call yourself a writer.  It's easy.

Molina and Pujols are constants. 

Schu is working to improve.  He admits that at least part of his defensive problems last season were caused by his offensive issues, and since we know that those won't happen again (we do know that, right?), then the defensive problems will go away.  Plus, Schu is no longer working out to be ready to break down doors and serve search warrants, he's working on fielding ground balls (there's a novel concept, taking a practical approach to your workout).  Conclusion: Huge upgrade.

At short, the team found a defensive metric that said Theriot was a plus defender.  Well, at least it said he was a plus defender in 2007-08 when he played for a playoff team and since the Cardinals expect to be a playoff team, those are the metrics we're going to use.  Never mind that those same metrics said Theriot was a minus defender last season, that was with the Cubs and the Cubs suck.  Never use a metric that involves the Cubs.  What's that??  Theriot played for the Cubs in 2007-08?  Hmmmm.  Oh, and sure, there were some metrics that said he wasn't a plus defender in 2007-08, but those metrics are stupid.  Conclusion: Huge upgrade becau...LOOK BUZZ, AN ALIEN!!!!

At third, Freese is healthy.  At least we think he's healthy.  At least we expect him to be healthy.  Not necessarily healthy by the start of Spring Training, but at least by the start of the season.  Actually the doctors told us to expect him to be healthy by August 2010, but we're still waiting, so really we have no idea, but a healthy Freese is better than an unhealthy Freese and we're told Freese will be healthy in 2011.  Conclusion: Huge upgrade.

In left field, Holliday is returning and Holliday was a plus outfielder last year.  We expect the same this year.  What's that?  The metrics that said Holliday was a plus outfielder were the same ones that said Theriot was a minus shortstop and we said were stupid.  Hmmm.  Well, those metrics are stupid as applied to infielders, but spot on for outfielders.  And never mind when you saw Holliday unable to protect his nards from a line drive.  Your eyes deceive you, statistics do not.  Conclusion:  No upgrade, but still a plus.

In center field, Colby is more comfortable because we moved him deeper in the outfielder and that made him take better routes to the ball.  With Colby, it's all about being comfortable and now he's comfortable.  Sure he's been nursing on daddy's teet for the past 2 months, but he's comfortable.  Conclusion: Upgrade.

In right field, Berkman won't be as bad as you all think.  Besides, outfield defense is over-rated.  We have a ground ball pitching team.  In fact, our people tell us that no one will hit a fly ball to right all season so it doesn't matter who's out there, that person won't make any errors.  Conclusion: Upgrade.

There you have it.  Conclusive proof that this team will be better defensively than last season's team.

Remember, sometimes it's more important to sound confident when you say something than to actually have support for your position.   

I've read this three times and it keeps getting funnier. I didn't see the alien, though ...

The difference between Berkman in '08 and '09 was 15 doubles and that season was still miles ahead of what Ludwick did. His on base percentage was 75 points better and his slugging was about 60 points higher.

"followed by 5 seasons that were down, up, down, up, down, but generally going down a little each cycle."

The way this reads makes it sound like Berkman was terrific, then just OK. He was either putting up monster seasons (2004, 2006, 2008) or really, really good seasons comparable to what we expect of Matt Holliday (2005, 2007, 2009).

tkihshbt wrote:

The difference between Berkman in '08 and '09 was 15 doubles and that season was still miles ahead of what Ludwick did. His on base percentage was 75 points better and his slugging was about 60 points higher.

"followed by 5 seasons that were down, up, down, up, down, but generally going down a little each cycle."

The way this reads makes it sound like Berkman was terrific, then just OK. He was either putting up monster seasons (2004, 2006, 2008) or really, really good seasons comparable to what we expect of Matt Holliday (2005, 2007, 2009).

TK, you either didn't understand what I was saying, or you just have a very different way of looking at things if you think the numbers below indicate that Berkman was miles ahead of Ludwick in 2009 (3 fewer hits, 11 more doubles, 3 more HR, 13 fewer RBIs, a shitload more walks--a lot of good those walks are gonna do us batting in front of Yadi).  Likewise, I don't expect Holliday to bat .274 and have 80 RBIs. 

Year    Team    G    AB    R    H    2B    3B    HR    RBI    BB    K    SB    CS    AVG    OBP    SLG    OPS   
2009    HOU    136    460    73    126    31    1    25    80    97    98    7    4    .274    .399    .509    .907   
2009    STL    139    486    63    129    20    1    22    97    41    106    4    2    .265    .329    .447    .776

Last edited by Max (12/30/2010 1:34 am)

You're very touchy about this, TK.  What conclusive statement did I make?  And are you sure you weren't the guy who was arguing with me a few years back that Sosa was gonna be miles better than Sanders in RF, 'cause this argument sure sounds like deja vu?

Max wrote:

TK, you either didn't understand what I was saying, or you just have a very different way of looking at things if you think the numbers below indicate that Berkman was miles ahead of Ludwick in 2009 (3 fewer hits, 11 more doubles, 3 more HR, 13 fewer RBIs, a shitload more walks--a lot of good those walks are gonna do us batting in front of Yadi).  Likewise, I don't expect Holliday to bat .274 and have 80 RBIs.

I always wondered what a shitload was.  I guess in this case it is 17.

APRTW wrote:

Max wrote:

TK, you either didn't understand what I was saying, or you just have a very different way of looking at things if you think the numbers below indicate that Berkman was miles ahead of Ludwick in 2009 (3 fewer hits, 11 more doubles, 3 more HR, 13 fewer RBIs, a shitload more walks--a lot of good those walks are gonna do us batting in front of Yadi).  Likewise, I don't expect Holliday to bat .274 and have 80 RBIs.

I always wondered what a shitload was.  I guess in this case it is 17.

Well, 56 . . . but who's counting.  I was using a metric shitload.

If we look for differences that are likely to be statistically significant, Berkman had more doubles and walks, but overall Berkman and Ludwick were not far apart offensively, except for Berkman's ability to get on base. It would be more instructive to use more advanced statistics if you want to dig them up.  Where they are truly miles apart is their respective ability to play RF, but that's another issue.

If we get the 2009 Berkman, and if he can play RF as well as Duncan played LF for, say 130 G, then maybe the money will have been well spent.  My hunch is that it is at least as likely that his knees do not hold up and he plays fewer than 60 G total, and sucks most of the time when he does play, and is about as valuable to us as Brad Penny was.