I'm not going to get crazy into the metrics of this one here, but I've been reading some articles that bring up really good points about this coming season. 

1) The Cardinals lost Lackey. Replaced with Leake. (I believe this is an upgrade). 
2) The Cardinals lost Cruz. Replaced with Molina. (I believe this is an upgrade).
3) The Cardinals lost Lynn. Replaced with Wainright (I believe this is an upgrade)
4) The Cardinals lost Heyward. Replaced with Holliday/Pham. (This isn't an upgrade but it's not an incredible downgrade either).

Now here's the thinking. We're looking at free agency and we didn't really do much, etc etc... We have a tendency to look to improve on the 2015 Cardinals... Those guys had a largely gimped Holliday, lost Grichuk for some time, no Wainright, half a season without Molina.... 

I'm excited to watch Piscotty and Grichuk cruise the outfield. I'm excited to see Tommy Pham in that mix as well. This is a potentially great outfield core at the first jump of their careers and if these guys mature? We might actually have the team that thwarts the "super-power" Cubbies. 

Two "voodoo magic" things to consider. The Cardinals win, and when they aren't supposed to? They win anyway. The Cardinals really haven't had any lasting fail in them since 1999. I'm not sure they even know how to fall flat anymore. They are rapidly becoming the New England Patriots of baseball. I read a hateful article about how this could be the Cardinals year to finally lose!!! Written by a Yankees blogger... Fucking seriously? I laughed my ass off. But I'm just saying, you don't bet against New England unless you like losing money... They win a lot. So do the Cardinals. 

The Cubs don't. The better they are, the more glorious the dissappointment. 108 years of that. They got a whole lot of intangibles. Sabermetric WAR related good signing nods over Heyward. At 186 million dollars, I don't want to skew numbers at an angle to find the value in what I paid for. I want a killer. I want a Mike Trout, or  a Bryce Harper (without the attitude). I don't want to have to measure that by looking at that one time Heyward threw a runner out that saved the game. Say what? No no no that's how I justify the 375,000 rookie I'm starting out there! You making 35 million in 2016, I expect to see BIG numbers. I think we were largely right to balk at giving him a big deal, we wanted to keep him, but we didn't want to spend 200 million doing it. Imagine if we're right on that? 

Imagine Chicago paying 200 million for a serviceable young run-of-the-mill average outfielder who had a bit of a hitting streak, but isn't much of a talent at the plate? I won't stop laughing until 2024.

artie_fufkin wrote:

"The Cardinals lost Cruz. Replaced with Molina. (I believe this is an upgrade).  ... half a season without Molina...."

I'm not sure if you mean Brayan Pena is going to replace Cruz, which is probably a marginal upgrade, but Molina played in 136 regular season games last season, which is about what he's averaged since he replaced Matheny as the full-time starter. 
I liked what I saw out of Piscotty last year, and his ceiling and Grichuk's ceiling are high, but I'm a little wary that Piscotty has less than 250 major league at bats, and that Grichuk is injury-prone. And he's Cal Freakin' Ripken compared to Pham in terms of durability. Holliday is 36, and his numbers since 2010 have shown a steady decline. 
I don't want to be too gloomy about the 2016 Cardinals even before spring training starts. They're coming off a 100-win season and they're getting their best pitcher back from injury. They're going to be a very good team.
But, black cats and goats and geeks interfering with foul balls aside, the Cubs also have a very good team. They're always going to be a bit overhyped by the media, but picking them to win the World Series this season isn't a big leap. Of course, there's no guarantee the pre-season favorite is going to even make the playoffs (Hello, 2015 Washington Nationals), but the Cubs are going to be formidable.
And as much as we like to retroactively downplay Heyward's contribution last season and insist the Cubs overpaid for him, which they almost certainly did, he's a better outfielder than anyone on the Cardinals' roster.

I agree to some extent with that. We lost Molina for the last 13 games of the season, and he was crippled for the playoffs. So we upgraded his backup, and he'll hopefully have 2 working hands for the season (comes in handy for baseball). 

This isn't rose colored glasses about Heyward. Before he signed with the club, we were all standing around trying to build the 50 Shades of Optimism that would make giving Heyward 200 million dollars worth it. I am pretty sure most of that is in this thread... If it was Me you were left with out there in Right Field, I'd tell you that you have a serious hole in your outfield and it needs to be fixed. Even with Heyward leaving, I'm not ready to say that, and depending on how they spend the 200 million they were going to give him, I'll be much happier. 

You can't give that kind of money to someone who's a lifetime .268 hitter averaging 16.2 HR's a season.... I don't care if the guy is 26. That's roughly the same amount of money we had waiting for Albert Pujols. Who has a lifetime .312 average with 560 HRs after 15 seasons. While I can start to make some arguments for the differences between these two, the money is way too close to make anyone feel good about Heyward at 200 million. You can get a lot more for that money. 

With Wainright coming up, and Leake in the rotation, I like what we have. More and more everyday. I think I'm going to look back on this day and once again be beaming with pride at the way every move we make seems to work out for us. 

For the money involved. I'd rather have our OFers than the Cubs. Holliday makes that a difficult statement, but I'll give him a pass for last season, he was hurt and not right for most of it. 

Also, it's hard to really say he's on a clear decline. If you look at his Colorado numbers, sure. You can hit a ball to the wall with a whiffle bat up there. Year before he was at 20 HR's with a .300 BA If he can do that, at his salary, I'd rather have him too. Although his defense is far worse than Heywards.

artie_fufkin wrote:

Gomes is gone ... to Japan

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2016/02/03/jonny-gomes-is-headed-to-japan/

I can't imagine a person who is less emotionally-prepared to assimilate to Japanese culture. He'll be back in the U.S. before the end of the season.

...and the Rakuten Golden Eagles immediately become favorites to win the 2016 WS.

Ian kennedys contract is unusual.   The royals basicly saved money the first year and then offered that money after year 2 If he opts.  If that isnt an incentive to opt out because the club believes it is to their benifit to ditch the lackluster kennedy idk what is. 

-------------------
Ian Kennedy rhp
5 years/$70M (2016-20)

5 years/$70M (2016-20)signed by Kansas City as a free agent 1/16

16:$7.5M, 17:$13.5M, 18:$16M, 19:$16.5M, 20:$16.5MKennedy may opt out of contract after 2017 season (receives $6M buyout if he elects to opt out)

------------------------------

"The Royals are undeniably a contender right now (despite what the projections say), though it's tough to not look ahead a few years and realize this group won't be together forever.

Here's a list of core Royals set to become free agents after the 2017 season:
Eric Hosmer
Mike Moustakas
Wade Davis
Alcides Escobar
Lorenzo Cain
Danny Duffy

The club would have to push their payroll north of $200 million to re-sign everyone, and that seems really unlikely. This group already has two AL pennants and one World Series title together, and they'll have a chance to win more the next two years. After that though, some very tough decisions will have to be made.Kennedy can opt out of his contract following the 2017 season, which lines up perfectly with what can be considered the team's window of contention. If he pitches well the next two years, Kennedy will help the club contend, then opt out and become a free agent at the same time as everyone else. The opt-out matches up well with the club's current situation."

For no reason in particular, I'm going to leave this right here.



 

That entire postseason still gives me chills and instead of smiling, I still watch highlights in disbelief. over 4 years later, I can still hardly believe that actually happened. 

Game 6 of the 2011 World Series to me was the greatest baseball game ever watched in terms of drama and entertainment. Something usually only reserved for Rocky movies occurred in real action on that field. That game stands to me as a shining and perfect example of how exciting baseball can really be, despite how mundane and repetitively boring it gets from May-August. 162 games of mundane. Some wins, some losses, pretty even though, even the great teams only win 6 out of 10. The best hitters get 3 out of 10.... At times the game looks like a game of catch with a few breaks where a ball is hit somewhere and we get to watch a little hustle. But for one evening, one moment in time. Game 6 of the 2011 World Series occurred, and presented such a compelling array of drama and excitement that everyone watching became 10 years old again, full of big league dreams and collecting baseball cards. 

alz wrote:

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/josh-donaldson-signs-two-year---29-million-deal-with-blue-jays-033816099.html

That's what GM savvy looks like. Donaldson is thrilled, and 14.5 million a year for 2 seasons to lock up the AL MVP is a steal. 

It's a fair contract.  Donaldson isn't eligible to be a free agent for another 3 years.  All Toronto did was resolve his arbitration case this year and avoid another one next year.

Last edited by forsberg_us (2/09/2016 5:55 pm)

artie_fufkin wrote:

don.rob11 wrote:

Goosebumps

I'm fully-confident I'll never see a better baseball game as long as I live.
Second on the list is Game 5 of the LDS against the Phillies. I've never seen a pitcher show more guts than Chris Carpenter did that night.

 

Amen. Those are my top 2 of all time as well. Completely different games, but given the winner take all and the Cardinals putting up the 1 run and trying to hold it for the next 9 innings just got so intense. 
 

Probably because I was there, but Game 6 of the 2004 LCS is one I remember quite fondly.  Fucking Carlos Beltran seemed to be on 2nd base every inning.  Isringhausen shitting himself and blowing a 9th inning lead, only to have Edmonds hit a walk-off HR in the 12th.  

It's a shame MLB cancelled the world series that year.

"Fucking Carlos Beltran seemed to be on 2nd base every inning"

I remember thinking at the start of every game: "Let's just get Beltran's leadoff homer overwith so we can play the damn game."

forsberg_us wrote:

Probably because I was there, but Game 6 of the 2004 LCS is one I remember quite fondly.  Fucking Carlos Beltran seemed to be on 2nd base every inning.  Isringhausen shitting himself and blowing a 9th inning lead, only to have Edmonds hit a walk-off HR in the 12th.  

It's a shame MLB cancelled the world series that year.

I was also there. I was friends with the MidWest DirecTV rep who got office tickets for each game. Problem? There was no office, just him. He got 8 seats to every game, and I was a close enough friend/diehard cards fan, so he gave me 2 tickets to each game. 

I also hit an LDS game against the Dodgers, and Gm 3 of the Cards/Sox World Series. 

I still have the stubs in that World Series Taco Bell lanyard giveaway.

artie_fufkin wrote:

I was pretty happy when the Red Sox came back to beat the Yankees in the 2004 ALCS, because I figured the Yankees were a much more formidable opponent, and that if the Red Sox made it to the World Series, they'd do what the Red Sox always eventually do - shit their pants.
My buddy the dermatologist has been a Red Sox' season-ticket holder for about 25 years, and his two seats are behind the visitors' dugout. A few hours before Game 1 of the 2004 World Series, he called me and asked if I wanted to go with him because it was going to be a cold night and his wife didn't want to be outside. 
He lives west of Boston, and I live north of the city, so we agreed to meet at a bar about an hour before the game started. I took the subway into the city, and there's about a half-mile between the train station to Fenway Park. I remember walking over the bridge that spans the Massachusetts Turnpike, coming down toward the ballpark, looking at all the optimism in the eyes of the Red Sox' fans and thinking: "These people have no idea what they're in for. This is the best Cardinals' team of my lifetime. This series is going to be a sweep."
I was right about the series being a sweep. Just not the way I thought I'd be right.
 

Not sure what you're talking about.  The 2004 world series never happened.