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The Cardinals stink against good teams.
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I saw someone else post this the other day, so it's not my research, but the Reds crapped the bed against .500 teams in 2010 and beat up on the also-rans. So if the Cardinals can improve on their 2-10 record against good teams and maintain their advantage against the shitty ones, they should finish around 90 wins.
I didn't watch a single pitch of today's game, but the bullpen was atrocious this weekend. And it's abundantly clear that Matt Holliday has to be moved out of the No. 3 spot.