Alz,

No one is questioning your right to cheer for Oregon.

I do take exception with the notion that Stanford is as good as you represent.  I think Stanford is similarly the prodcut of a poor Pac-10.  Simply saying that the other SEC teams are 2+ loss teams doesn't tell the full story.  Arkansas is a 2 loss team because it lost to a then-#1 Alabama and Auburn.  LSU is a 2 loss team because it lost at Arkansas and to Auburn.  Alabama is a 3 loss team because it lost at South Carolina, at LSU and to Auburn.  I'd take any of those 3 teams against Stanford on a neutral field and feel pretty comfortable about my chances.

The Big 10 further illustrates why you can't simply look at a school's record.  The Big 10 has 3 teams at 11-1 but it's much more the product of the other 8 teams being extremely mediocre than it is the quality of those 3 teams.

In any event, this entire discussion highlights why college football needs a playoff rather than the stupid system currently employed.

well goddamnit. We all missed a golden investment opportunity.

Tickets to the 2011 BCS title game in late october/early november could be had for about 470.00 a seat.

They are now selling for 1100.00. Needless to say, I won't be attending this in person. I wanted to, but that makes the trip about 1700 with flight, hotel, drinks, etc. I'll be cheering quite loudly from somewhere in St. Louis instead.

alz wrote:

well goddamnit. We all missed a golden investment opportunity.

Tickets to the 2011 BCS title game in late october/early november could be had for about 470.00 a seat.

They are now selling for 1100.00. Needless to say, I won't be attending this in person. I wanted to, but that makes the trip about 1700 with flight, hotel, drinks, etc. I'll be cheering quite loudly from somewhere in St. Louis instead.

Walk to Glendale, sleep on the sidewalk and spend $600 on drinks? Seems reasonable.

In tribute to Oregon, and my Cub'esque prediction coming true. I will only be posting in this thread today.

Matchup points. My "skilled analysis".

Auburn Points:
1) Size:: Auburn has a few things that can help or hurt them, but their size is apparent here. They are a bigger football team. Cam Newton is big, the O-Line is Big, the D-Line is Big, they are all big. On the offensive side of things, this is great, but the Big D-Line, and especially the fact that they don't rotate them much (they play I think 5 maybe 6 guys) is going to potentially haunt them when the second half hits and they are gassed.

2) Poise:: Whatever you want to say about pace, tempo, X's and O's, there's an intangible here. Auburn is from the SEC, and has had major games against highly ranked opponents all season long. South Carolina*2, LSU, Alabama being the obvious highlights. While Oregon has beaten USC, Stanford, Arizona, these wins are not on the same level, aside from Stanford (who will likely finish as the number 3/4 team in the nation).

3) Multi-Dimensional Attack:: A few teams have made Cam Newton throw the football to beat them, and he can do that too. He's not just a bulldozer, he can throw the ball. Oregon's defense is going to have to overload blitzes with a bump and run coverage to get to Cam before he can check down to the open guy. With the size difference, this is really going to prove difficult.

All of this leads me to believe that Auburns key to victory here resides squarely on their ability to slow the game down and give their defense as much rest as possible. It doesn't lead for scores in the 40s, but it should keep them fresh.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oregon Points:
1) Durability :: Oregon, while smaller, is used to running on 15 second clocks for the entire game. Largely because they rotate 9 Defensive Lineman in and out of the defense. No matter what Auburn puts on the field, the Oregon defense will not be tired.

2) Tempo :: This is pretty obvious, it doesn't really seem to mean much until the second half. At that point, teams really have a difficult time keeping up. Once they begin to slide, it just gets harder and harder with momentum going to Oregon. The downside to this is that it puts a lot of time and pressure on the Oregon defense, but Oregon's defense is much more adept to being on the field for long amounts of time due to the nature of their practicing. Oregon's second half point differential both offensive and defensive is phenomenal. 3 TD's allowed in the 4th quarter all season. Again this is another snowball turning into an avalanche. Once you get behind and need to score touchdowns, this is when Oregon becomes a very stingy and opportunistic defense.

3) Confidence :: Oregon comes into this as a slight dog, but they know that if they execute their offense, they cannot be beat. This has scored huge for them in many games where they were getting beaten, and then turned around and ripped out 35-50 points. They can score from anywhere, score quickly, score often. Chip Kelly will go for onside kicks, fourth downs, etc. He is a very "high pressure" coach in coming after a team offensively.


So it comes down to this, it's time for the predictions. Many people have this picked as a high scoring shootout, and I'm not sure I do. I think points will be scored, but I really think Auburn will try to be more deliberate on offense, in an effort to keep the defense rested. I'm going to call the game that I think Oregon needs to win. This is Oregon jumping to a 10-14 point lead early, and keeping that until halftime, then taking advantage of Auburn pressing in the second half to extend and pull away.

Oregon 44
Auburn 20

Am I nuts?  Of course I am, but I've been nuts all year.

PUT DOWN YOUR PREDICTIONS PEOPLE!!!

Who had 0-0 after 1Q in the pool???

I'll say this. Regardless of who wins, these teams deserved to play on a better field. The number of players who have lost their footing in this game is pathetic.

Last edited by forsberg_us (1/11/2011 12:14 am)

Someone tell Phil Knight to step it up on the "recruiting" front.