I've been eyeballing the career stats for some big names, Ruth, Aaron, etc., wondering two things:

1. How do Pujols lifetime stats project?
Surely there is a program that does this, and I suspect someone has tried it.  Does anybody know the answer?

2. What's the chance the Berkman's career is over?

My quick and dirty eyeball method is too look at the career trajectories for some other great hitters, starting with Ruth and Aaron.  The Babe played for about 16 seasons as a full-time position player, Aaron for 22 1/2.  Ruth would have been up around 20 if he hadn't started his career as a pitcher.

Ruth's last season as a fulltime player he batted .288 with a .448 OBP and 22 HR.  The next season he had 28 games for a different team and he batted .188 and was all done.  Prior to the .288 season, he had  been .310 with 31 bombs and the year before that it was .341 with 41 bombs.  Ruth dropped like a rock.

Aaron's last season and a half he batted down around .230 and hit a total of 22 HRs.  The season before that he batted .268 with 20 HR, and the one before that it was .301 with 40 HRs.  Aaron, too, dropped like a rock. 

In this analysis, what scientists would call 'heuristic', the pattern seems to be:

normal susperstar-type season
steep decline to an average player
steep decline to below average
done

If Berkman fits that trajectory:

2008: normal susperstar-type season
2009: steep decline to an average player
2010: steep decline to below average
2011: he is done.