"If Pujols becomes a free agent, is he gone?"\

There are lots of scenarios.  One I envision is that $300/10, or maybe $240/8 with two option years, would get it done today.  But if that doesn't happen, I can see Pujols go into this season with mission.  Imagine that he has a career year . . .

If that happens, then my hunch is that even $300/10 wouldn't be the highest offer. 

We'll see . . .


http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/round-two/article_af641b68-2fcf-11e0-929f-00127992bc8b.html

Yeah, I saw that.  I am saying that I think that kind of contract would get it done today.  I am furthermore saying that I think there's a chance that Pujols cranks it up a notch, has a monster season, and that some other team will be willing to offer even more, whether or not Pujols takes it. 

These are just hunches, we'll have to see how it plays out.  He could also get injured, require surgery, and sign a one-year deal.  But I think he knows that, and if it were me it would piss me off that DeWitt was willing to play that game of brinkmanship after Pujols has done everything conceivable to earn A+++ treatment from the Cardinals, such that if he avoids injury and has a good season, he might demand payment.

I dont understand why a deal hasnt been reached.  At what point to you think the Cardinals should let Pujols walk?  I wouldnt go over 8 years and wouldnt go over 30 million.  I cant imagen Pujols turning down a 8/240.

APRTW wrote:

I dont understand why a deal hasnt been reached.

I just had an epiphany about this.  Perhaps DeWitt's strategy is to wait until right before the deadline and then offer Pujols a menu of options, similar to what was offered to Holliday (but with much larger dollar values, of course), but given the timing, it will pretty much be a take it or become a free agent type of offer.  That is, if they made the offer now, there would be time for give and take, and DeWitt probably doesn't want that, because, frankly, he holds the weaker hand at the moment.

I hadn't read the story until Max posted the link, but maybe Goold's theory is right and they are going to wait to see what Pujols' market really is. As Cardinal fans, maybe we value Pujols more than the market. After all, he has had lingering elbow issues that required at least a couple different procedures, and there seemed to be a consensus that Pujols was going to need TJ surgery at some point.

Maybe DeWitt & Co. have decided that rather than bidding against themselves, they're better off waiting to see where the market truly values Pujols. Obviously that is a strategy with considerable risk, but given some of the numbers floating around out there, it maybe a risk they're willing to take.

forsberg_us wrote:

I hadn't read the story until Max posted the link, but maybe Goold's theory is right and they are going to wait to see what Pujols' market really is. As Cardinal fans, maybe we value Pujols more than the market. After all, he has had lingering elbow issues that required at least a couple different procedures, and there seemed to be a consensus that Pujols was going to need TJ surgery at some point.

Maybe DeWitt & Co. have decided that rather than bidding against themselves, they're better off waiting to see where the market truly values Pujols. Obviously that is a strategy with considerable risk, but given some of the numbers floating around out there, it maybe a risk they're willing to take.

There are several reasons to wait.  Besides the one you mention, and other would be if they think that the minimum price for Pujols is already too high.  In which case the wait and hope the market on him drops.  My concern is, what if by waiting the market goes up?  If Pujols has it in him, it would be definitely like him to treat all of this like a challenge and have an absolutely monster career year.  Can you imagine what a career year for Pujols would be?

I think there's some truth to the idea that Pujols' highest value is to the Cardinals. If he signs somewhere else, the expectation would be for him to post "Pujols numbers" for the duration of the contract, which may not be likely over the course of a 7 or 8 year deal. Cardinal fans would be much more tolerant of a age-based decline because of his legacy to the franchise.

The one wild card IMO is the Cubs. The spend money like it's water and they may find some value in sticking it to the Cardinals. Then again, it's not like they have to field a competetive team to fill Wrigley, so who knows.

APRTW wrote:

I honestly dont think money is a sorce of motivation for Pujols.  I dont think Pujols in a walk year would be any different then any other year.

My thought was pride, not money.

APRTW wrote:

It will be interesting to see what the market is for Pujols.  One would think it would be the highest of high but without the Red Sox's and Yankees bidding who knows.

I guess that the Yankees, at least, will be in the mix if Pujols hits free agency.

How are the Yankees in the mix?  They have big money invest in a first baseman already.  Neither would be willing to move to DH not matter what the contract offer would be.  The best they could do would be offer Pujols an outfield spot.

APRTW wrote:

Max wrote:

APRTW wrote:

I dont understand why a deal hasnt been reached.

I just had an epiphany about this.  Perhaps DeWitt's strategy is to wait until right before the deadline and then offer Pujols a menu of options, similar to what was offered to Holliday (but with much larger dollar values, of course), but given the timing, it will pretty much be a take it or become a free agent type of offer.  That is, if they made the offer now, there would be time for give and take, and DeWitt probably doesn't want that, because, frankly, he holds the weaker hand at the moment.

We are putting to much thought into this as well.  Either DeWitt is being cheap or Pujols is being a fraud about want to remain with the Cardinals.

Perhaps not.  Here is what Strauss has to say:

"1.  The Cardinals are believed leery of setting Pujols' market for fear their proposal could be rejected and eventually shopped should he reach free agency.

2.  Pujols, 31, is certain to reject any request for a so-called "home team discount" before reaching free agency.

3.  The Cardinals, meanwhile, may remain skeptical whether Pujols can command either the number of years or a $30 million average that a club source said was advanced last year by his representation."

My interpretation of this is that what is playing out is precisely what we have discussed.

2. Pujols is not interested in accepting anything less than his perception of market value.

3. The Cards are unconvinced that Pujols's perception of his market value will be borne out.

Here is the novel part that I assume Strauss is getting from someone close to the talks:

1. The Cards don't want to even make an offer, lest Pujols reject and shop it around next Fall.


So, what I read from Strauss is that unless there is a change, we will go into Spring training without the Cards having even made a formal offer, Pujols will become a FA, and that's that.  Personally, I think there's still a chance the Cards offer an 11th hour take it or leave menu of options.

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/cardinal-beat/article_8f0f31ca-3175-11e0-8684-00127992bc8b.html

Last edited by Max (2/06/2011 12:19 am)

forsberg_us wrote:

Max, even for you this idea is crazy.

And Ludwick won't get traded last July.

Max wrote:

I believe that the Yankees supply of money is virtually inexhaustible.  You've seen their estimated revenues, I presume.  They could sign Pujols and trade Texeira, eating most or all of his salary.  What team out there has too much money invested in something that the Yankees need, like a starting pitcher?  Who wouldn't take Texeira for virtually nothing and unload a pricey pitcher in bargain?  Howzabout the Cubs unloading Zambrano?

If it is simply a matter of money and two draft picks, why on Earth wouldn't the Yankees be in the mix?

How does trading Texeira improve the Yankees?  They might be the Yankees but they are not stupid.  They know they have a very good first baseman now.  You dont improve a team focusing on the weak spots.  Not swapping out strenghts.  In fact if the Yankees are going to trade Texeira and the team getting him isnt going to have to pay his contract I would trade Pujols today.