forsberg_us wrote:

APRTW wrote:

Max wrote:

I believe that the Yankees supply of money is virtually inexhaustible.  You've seen their estimated revenues, I presume.  They could sign Pujols and trade Texeira, eating most or all of his salary.  What team out there has too much money invested in something that the Yankees need, like a starting pitcher?  Who wouldn't take Texeira for virtually nothing and unload a pricey pitcher in bargain?  Howzabout the Cubs unloading Zambrano?

If it is simply a matter of money and two draft picks, why on Earth wouldn't the Yankees be in the mix?

How does trading Texeira improve the Yankees?  They might be the Yankees but they are not stupid.  They know they have a very good first baseman now.  You dont improve a team focusing on the weak spots.  Not swapping out strenghts.  In fact if the Yankees are going to trade Texeira and the team getting him isnt going to have to pay his contract I would trade Pujols today.

Agreed.  I saw one story that came out before Pujols said he wouldn't waive his no-trade that perhaps the Cardinals should trade him to the Red Sox for Adrian Gonzalez.  Of course they wouldn't do that, but if the Red Sox picked up 80% of Gonzalez's salary, I think you'd have to reconsider.

There was a similar rumor going around about the Yankees trading Texeira and money for Pujols.

That's an excellent point.  If the Cards offered him a guaranteed 10 years now it would pay him until he's 41.  If another team offered the same next year, it would pay him until he's 42.

We touched on this only tangentially a while back when discussing what the payroll for this season would look like in the event that negotiations for a contract extension were successful.

Max wrote:

That's an excellent point.

Thanks.  That makes two of us, which is more than double my usual score.  But to clarify, I wasn't referring specifically to this board's discussion; rather, I meant I don't hear this mentioned anywhere.  That leads me to suspect I'm missing something fundamental, if not obvious.

I don't think balking is the best description so much as playing brinkmanship is.  First off, I think very few people have any idea what is really going, but reading around, I think that others have respect for Strauss's "inside information" more than anyone else's.  Both sides are super adept at business and negotiation and the speculation is just going to run wild the longer this goes on.

Not looking for an argument, just curious.  If the rumors are true and Pujols' people have said 10 years, $300M, how many think the Cardinals should agree?

forsberg_us wrote:

Not looking for an argument, just curious.  If the rumors are true and Pujols' people have said 10 years, $300M, how many think the Cardinals should agree?

"In calculations using metrics of player comparison, estimated production and age curves, hardballtimes.com valued Pujols as high as $275 million over 10 years (almost exactly A-Rod money), fangraphs.com put his value at $267 million over 10 years, and sabernomics.com – factoring in the normal increases in player salaries and league revenues – came in at $350 million over eight years.

Businessinsider.com, which determined Pujols – given his production – was underpaid by as much as $130 million over the life of his current contract, said Pujols’ next eight seasons would be worth as much as $240 million."

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AmDs3.G6r5PnHgRGCLaoxqoRvLYF?slug=ti-pujolsextensionstalled020811

And FWIW, if we look at the age of the all time OPS leaders for the last season in which they were an effective (somewhat subjective), impact player (age/OPS):

1. Babe Ruth (39/.985)
2. Ted Williams (42/1.096)
3. Lou Gehrig (35/.932)
4. Barry B*nds (43/1.045)
5. Albert
6. Jimmy Foxx (34/.917)
7. Hank Greenberg (36/.885)
8. Rogers Hornsby (this is a tough call, he never played 100 games after 35, but his OPS remained high until 41, albeit for only 20 games).
9. M*nny (38 and still effective at .870)
10. Big Mac (36/1.229)
11. Helton (last effective season at 35/.904)
12. Mickey Mantle 35/.822)
13. Joe DiMaggio (35/.979)
14. Stan Musial (41/.924)
15. Frank Thomas (39/.857)
16. Larry Walker (38/.886)
17. Jim Thome (39 and still effective at 1.039)
18. Johnny Mize (37/.946)
19. A-Rod (34 and still effective at .847
20. Berkman (last effective at 33/.907)

Make of it what you will: 6/20 are still active; of the remaining 14, 6/14 were still effective at 39. 
Throw in Thome, the one active player who is already that age (and still effective) and at least 6/15 (40%) remained effective at 39 years old.

alz wrote:

well the thing that bothers me about the pujols deal (no deal).

Maybe you don't get 30 million worth out of him for 10 years, but you got 30 million out of him for 9 years without paying it up front. Give him the deal, he'll earn it for a majority of the contract at least. Don't alienate your fanbase.

Since it looks to be my last season as a Redbird fan, let's hope we play well.

I am not sure any player is really worth 30 million a year.  From a team like the Cardinals who want to keep a reasonable payroll it is even harder to do.  I think paying Pujols 30 million for 10 years is more then he is worth.  It is only even thinkible to do if other teams would be willing to do it.  The only way to know that is to wait till next year.  Maybe that is not what the Cardinals want but I assume the 10/300 is not on the table.  If the Cardinals are offering 8/240 or 10/275 then who do you blame, Pujols or the front office?   Those are both fair offers IMO.

I would really like to know what the team and Pujols has talked about.  I assume everyone does.  I just cant see a reason other then selfishness to pass up a reasonable offer.  Pujols has always come across as reasonable.

forsberg_us wrote:

Interesting list Max.  Worth noting that of the players on that list, at least 4 (Bonds, McGwire, Ramirez and A-Rod) are known steroid users.

Yeah, and another analysis would be to skip them and move to the next four non-roided players on the list.  I'm not sure what to do with records from the roid era, but I would guess that long-term roid use decreases a players playing days.

forsberg_us wrote:

I don't have a problem with giving Pujols a contract with the highest AAV ever handed out, provided it's for a reasonable length of time.  But IMO, anything more than 7-8 years is a mistake.  Look at A-Rod's numbers since he signed his 10 year deal.  His OPS has gone from .965 to .933 to .847.  That may be "effective," but is it worth $30M?  How will that look in 7 years

A-Rod is not worth the money he is receiving now and the Yankees will probably not get good value out of that contract.  Then again, they gave a 10 year extension to a known roider, something Pujols is not. 

forsberg_us wrote:

Everything that's out there seems to suggest the Cardinals haven't made a concrete offer.  If they really wanted to ratchet up the pressure on Pujols, they'd make an offer somewhere between 7/200 and 8/240 and let that leak to the media.  If that happened, I think a lot of the fan base would jump into the team's corner.

The team has already let out a few leaks that should have Pujols pissed off.  Likewise, it is possible that the Pujols crowd let out the leak that the Cards haven't even made an offer.  Frankly, if DeWitt pulled a stunt like you suggest it runs the risk of a huge backfire, with people claiming that he purposely dropped a poison pill in the negotiations because he knew he didn't want to part with enough of his money to get Pujols to sign.

Last edited by Max (2/09/2011 12:14 pm)

Max wrote:

A-Rod is not worth the money he is receiving now and the Yankees will probably not get good value out of that contract.  Then again, they gave a 10 year extension to a known roider, something Pujols is not.

The A-Rod steroid story didn't come out until after the contract was signed.  The contract was done during the 07-08 off-season.  The steroid story came out during the 08-09 off-season. 

I read somewhere that the A-Rod contract is becoming a huge sticking point in this process.  Obviously it is being cited as the benchmark for Pujols' contract, but the Cardinals are pointed out exactly what you just said--To this point A-Rod has not produced at the level of a $300M player and it appears likely that he won't for a majority, if not all of the contract.

Max wrote:

Frankly, if DeWitt pulled a stunt like you suggest it runs the risk of a huge backfire, with people claiming that he purposely dropped a poison pill in the negotiations because he knew he didn't want to part with enough of his money to get Pujols to sign.

I don't know about the second half of your statement, but there's no doubt that the leak would run a huge risk of backfiring, primarily in that it runs the risk of monumentally pissing of Pujols.

APRTW wrote:

The player union was pissy when Cliff Lee signed for less money.  I am sure they wouldnt be happy if Pujols didnt top ARod contract.  They want the bar to keep going up and this is the only chance they have to top Arod's contract.  I dont know if Pujols is the type of person who would feel that pressure.

From what I'm reading, it sounds like both Pujols and Lozano (his agent) are feeling that pressure.  Keep in mind that Lozano recently broke off from the agency he was with, so he may be looking to make a name for himself with this deal. 

APRTW wrote:

My opinion is that teams that are willing to pay above market value shouldnt set the pace for others.  Not only that but I dont really believe Pujols should get 3 million a year more then ARod if that is the contract they are comparing to.  There production is so close with eachothers that you are splitting hairs to figure out the player with the advantage.  Then you go to position and it is my opinion that ARod playing 3rd/ss is of more value then a first baseman.  If Pujols was offered the very same contract Arod got I think that would be fair.  ARod got his contract when he was the best player in the game and now Pujols is.  I dont think Pujols' contract has to be bigger then ARod's to prove anything.  If Pujols has to have a 10 year contract then I would offer him the same 10/275 that Arod got.  That wouldnt kill the Cardinals either if they are offering 8/240 now.

Even more difficult is when the Yankees or Red Sox set the bar because they are in so much better position to absorb a bad contract.  The Yankees just paid $12M per season to a set-up man.