First ballot

artie_fufkin wrote:

APIAD wrote:

First ballot

Had a discussion about this in another baseball group on Facebook yesterday. He reaches none of the usual HoF benchmarks for a hitter, never led the league in any offensive category, didn't win an individual award since he was ROY, and won only one ring, as a DH in the last season of his career.
That being said, he has more than 400 homers and 300 stolen bases, would have gotten to 3,000 hits absent injuries, won three Gold Gloves, and was a good and sometimes spectacular post-season player. I personally don't think he's a HoF player, but as I've said ad nauseum, I wouldn't have admitted about 40 percent of the players who are in there in the first place. The Sabregeeks - who seem to be carrying an increased sway in the balloting - love his advanced metrics, so I think he gets in eventually.

I have to say that I agree with Artie, probably in every respect.  Beltran was a truly great player against the Cards in '04, I think it was.  But he has hung on long past his years of contributing to get his numbers up (and of course to get a ring).

I have mixed feelings about how to make allowance for injuries.  Obviously it' been done in the past.  Dizzy Dean and Sandy Koufax are names that come immediately to mind. 

Oops.  Should've saved this til I had more time.
 

APIAD wrote:

I probably give to much credit to guys who a good for a really long time over guys who are great for a shirt amount of time.

Yes, longevity counts. I occasionally have an argument with my friends who are Red Sox fans about whether Carl Yastrzemski was truly an elite player, or a very good player who accumulated stats because he stuck around for 23 years. Same with Cal Ripken, who I argue is the most overrated player in the history of baseball. But I would never suggest either one of them doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame, because they both got to 3,000 hits.
Dan Shaughnessy (and others who have Hall of Fame ballots) often cite the "eyeball test" when they cast their ballots. It's really just lazy terminology for whether a player was dominant in his era. Referencing Mags' post, Koufax certainly passed the eyeball test, even though he really had only four or five good seasons. Same with Dizzy, and Pedro Martinez, and even with Gibby, to a lesser degree. Jamie Moyer has more wins that Gibby, but does anyone think Jamie Moyer belongs in the Hall of Fame?
 

artie_fufkin wrote:

APIAD wrote:

I probably give to much credit to guys who a good for a really long time over guys who are great for a shirt amount of time.

Yes, longevity counts. I occasionally have an argument with my friends who are Red Sox fans about whether Carl Yastrzemski was truly an elite player, or a very good player who accumulated stats because he stuck around for 23 years. Same with Cal Ripken, who I argue is the most overrated player in the history of baseball. But I would never suggest either one of them doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame, because they both got to 3,000 hits.
Dan Shaughnessy (and others who have Hall of Fame ballots) often cite the "eyeball test" when they cast their ballots. It's really just lazy terminology for whether a player was dominant in his era. Referencing Mags' post, Koufax certainly passed the eyeball test, even though he really had only four or five good seasons. Same with Dizzy, and Pedro Martinez, and even with Gibby, to a lesser degree. Jamie Moyer has more wins that Gibby, but does anyone think Jamie Moyer belongs in the Hall of Fame?
 

Ill disagree on gibson.  His baseball card is legit.

JV wrote:

So, is anyone disappointed that Stanton won't allow the Cards to empty their system of prospects for him?

great news if it's true.  Has he pretended to nix a trade to the Cards?
 

JV wrote:

So, is anyone disappointed that Stanton won't allow the Cards to empty their system of prospects for him?

In case anyone missed it:

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/prospects-pushing-cardinals-to-create-room-by-moving-outfielders/article_ec8e843d-5c5c-5089-bde3-cc22c6107b5c.html


 

forsberg_us wrote:

Mags wrote:

artie_fufkin wrote:

Had a discussion about this in another baseball group on Facebook yesterday. He reaches none of the usual HoF benchmarks for a hitter, never led the league in any offensive category, didn't win an individual award since he was ROY, and won only one ring, as a DH in the last season of his career.
That being said, he has more than 400 homers and 300 stolen bases, would have gotten to 3,000 hits absent injuries, won three Gold Gloves, and was a good and sometimes spectacular post-season player. I personally don't think he's a HoF player, but as I've said ad nauseum, I wouldn't have admitted about 40 percent of the players who are in there in the first place. The Sabregeeks - who seem to be carrying an increased sway in the balloting - love his advanced metrics, so I think he gets in eventually.

I have to say that I agree with Artie, probably in every respect.  Beltran was a truly great player against the Cards in '04, I think it was.  But he has hung on long past his years of contributing to get his numbers up (and of course to get a ring).

I have mixed feelings about how to make allowance for injuries.  Obviously it' been done in the past.  Dizzy Dean and Sandy Koufax are names that come immediately to mind. 

Oops.  Should've saved this til I had more time.
 

I don't know that he hung on long past his years of contributing.  In 2016 he hit .295 with 29 HR, 93 RBI and made the All-Star team.  I'd call that contributing.  

That said, I don't think he's a first ballot HOF.  I think he eventually gets in, but I think he'll be one of those guys who gets about 40-50% on his first ballot and gradually adds a few percentage points each year until he finally gets in.

I don't pay any attention to stats or to what's happening in the Designated Hitter League.  So I'm really surprised he had that kind of year in 2016.  I was just recalling watching him limp around in the outfield letting fly balls drop during his brief time with the Cards.  I guess the rules don't permit a bat boy to bring out a cane during an inning.
 

Last edited by Mags (11/15/2017 11:00 am)

artie_fufkin wrote:

Mags wrote:

artie_fufkin wrote:

I never believed for a second the Cardinals were going to acquire him. The whole Stanton thing started when a couple of national media guys said "Yeah, that could be a good fit." Then the fans picked up on it, and it almost became an obsession, like the way the closet sausage jockeys here in New England obsess over Tom Brady's hair.

Well, being a terrible pessimist, I think it is a real possibility until he's shipped somewhere else.  If he's nixed the Cards, I have to believe it's only for show so his agent can hold up someone for even more money.
 

I think I read a headline yesterday stating Stanton would not waive his no-trade clause to either St. Louis and Boston. The Red Sox certainly have the hubris and cash to believe they can convince Stanton to come there, but they also have a pretty decent outfield already, and they're stuck with Hanley Ramirez at DH for at least another year. Stanton will probably end up in Los Angeles. The Dodgers only have about $185 million committed to their payroll next year and they don't want to dip too far below $200 million.

Then Puig can demand a raise.
 

I think stanton wants to be in a big city, on a coast.  Not boston like tho.  Like California type.  Idk why he would want to be on the giants tho.  They are going to be bad for a few years at least.  And i seriously dont think the dodgers could afford him.  I mean damn, there payroll is already crazy.  Idk who the other teams are (said to be 7, STL, LAD, BOS, SF) but of the ones i do know the cardinals are the best fit from a competitive and payroll standpoint.

APIAD wrote:

"In seeking a major bat, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the team “has no interest” in pursuing free agent J.D. Martinez. Beyond their well-known interest in some Marlins targets, the Cards are also chatting internally about the possibility of going after free agent Carlos Gonzalez, who will surely be available for less (in terms of contract amount assumed and prospect capital) than would the others."

Of all the rumors...this i believe

FF to 12/15/17 ... "Al 'the Hack' Alligash of the Denver Tattler-Fish Wrapper reports today that Carlos Gonzalez, most recently of the Colorado Rockies, will sign a 6-year, $72 million deal today with the New York Yankees. The only other team which reportedly showed interest in Gonzalez was the St. Louis Cardinals, who were out-bid for Gonzalez's services by a wide margin and will now reportedly turn their focus to other available free agent outfielders, specifically Alejandro de Aza, Ben Revere or Scott Van Slyke. 'We think we can find an impact bat among one of those guys while we still keep plenty of dry powder,' Cardinals' Director of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak was overheard whispering to a potted plant disguised as a reporter for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch."
 

Last edited by artie_fufkin (11/15/2017 4:26 pm)

JV wrote:

So, is anyone disappointed that Stanton won't allow the Cards to empty their system of prospects for him?

Yes.  I couldn't care less about a bunch of prospects, the majority of whom will never make a serious impact in the major leagues.

To be clear, I agree with Artie, I never expected the Cardinals to make the deal, but that's the type of bat they need.

Last edited by forsberg_us (11/15/2017 5:03 pm)

Mags wrote:

forsberg_us wrote:

JV wrote:

So, is anyone disappointed that Stanton won't allow the Cards to empty their system of prospects for him?

Yes.  I couldn't care less about a bunch of prospects, the majority of whom will never make a serious impact in the major leagues.

 fors,

What's your current take on Mercado?

I can't say that I honestly have one, my comment is based solely on the history of this organization.  We've heard for at least a decade about the wonders within the organization, but they never materialize.  Who is the last position player who came through the Cardinals system who made the All-Star game.  I suppose the answer is Matt Carpenter, but I know how I feel about him.  The team needs a player who the other team has to concern itself with.  They don't have that guy.  Paul Dejong had a very nice season, but no one is game planning for Paul Dejong.  

I remember when Jurickson Profar was a can't miss prospect.  Texas wouldn't consider moving him.  How'd that work out for them?

forsberg_us wrote:

Mags wrote:

forsberg_us wrote:

Yes.  I couldn't care less about a bunch of prospects, the majority of whom will never make a serious impact in the major leagues.

 fors,

What's your current take on Mercado?

I can't say that I honestly have one, my comment is based solely on the history of this organization.  We've heard for at least a decade about the wonders within the organization, but they never materialize.  Who is the last position player who came through the Cardinals system who made the All-Star game.  I suppose the answer is Matt Carpenter, but I know how I feel about him.  The team needs a player who the other team has to concern itself with.  They don't have that guy.  Paul Dejong had a very nice season, but no one is game planning for Paul Dejong.  

I remember when Jurickson Profar was a can't miss prospect.  Texas wouldn't consider moving him.  How'd that work out for them?

I wasn't suggesting that Mercado disproved your assumption.  And I certainly don't see indication that he would supply the sort of bat that the Cards are looking for.

I agree with your assessment of the history of overselling prospects.  But, other than Jack Clark and Orlando Cepeda, I really can't think of any time the Cards have had success with acquiring an established hitter except by bringing them up through the organization or trading for someone who's not there yet (like Lou Brock).  Holliday and Beltran were good acquisitions but i don't think either was the sort of impact hitter the Cards need.

Perhaps I got imprinted by the 50's.  Again, Del Ennis was a valuable addition for a couple of years but not what the Cards needed then or now.  And the Gino Cimoli trade was a real bust.  Even his acting career failed to pan out.