"I continue to be amazed by the way to be a successful businessman is to manipulate perceptions instead of producting quality."

I've been saying the same thing about George Lucas since "Return of the Jedi."

After turning down the $17.4M tender, Mike Moustakas signs a one-year, $5.5M deal to return to the Royals.

Ouch!!!

Lynn signs a 1 year, $12M deal with the Twins

On the plus side i guess the cardinals gained a draft pick today.

I think a couple of things are obvious--teams are going to be a lot more judicious about who they tender, and players receiving the tender are going to have to seriously consider accepting it.

Cards got a year to see how things work with the qualifying offer.  The next two cases they have are wacha and ozuna. 

Pwrsonally i still see teams offering the QO at a decent rate.  It is sort of like the franchise tag in the nfl.  There is no such thing as a bad one year contract theory.  Say all three players (lynn, wacha and ozuna) are FA.  Id take any of the 3 for 18mill on a single year contract.  Might be an over pay for the two pitchers but its just one year.

2015 wacha would be worth every penny

forsberg_us wrote:

So would 2014 Adam Wainwright. But I wouldn’t pay him $18M next year either.

For arguements sake, what would your stat line for a starting pitcher be in order to justify a qualifying offer?

Up until this offseason 18 million was nothing.  Lackey damn near got it on a 2 year deal from the cubs, several years ago.  That was after an average year with the cardinals.  The down trend in money being spent imo is the most significant factor, not the need for the particular player to remain on the team.  QO are more about recieving a draft pick vs the risk of spending the money should the player accept.  After this offseason everything that has been known for the last 10 years has gone out the window.  I do think it is easy to conclude based on the cardinals activity that they didnt want lynn on the 2018 roster, they wanted the draft pick.

APIAD wrote:

QO are more about recieving a draft pick vs the risk of spending the money should the player accept.

Agree 100%.  But I think going forward, teams are going to be a bit more cautious about who they tender out of concern that the offer will be accepted.

From the Cardinals perspective, I think they'd have been OK with Lynn accepting the tender before they signed Mikolas.  Now, they don't see the need for another starter.  Some of us fans disagree, but it's pretty clear that's how they feel.

APIAD wrote:

Arrieta 3 years 75 million from the phillies. Nice deal for early spring training. Would not be interested for that price. Lynn for 12million is a different story.

The Arrieta contract was interesting.  It's paid $30M, $25M, $20M.  There's an opt out after year 2, but there's also a provision that allows the Phillies to void the opt out by adding 2 years to the deal.  Sort of a right of first refusal provision.  It's creative.

artie_fufkin wrote:

APIAD wrote:

Arrieta 3 years 75 million from the phillies. Nice deal for early spring training. Would not be interested for that price. Lynn for 12million is a different story.

One wonders what the Phillies are doing. In December, they gave a $60m, 3-year contract to a 31-year-old first baseman at the expense of one of their top prospects. Then they give a $75m, 3-year contract to a 31-year-old pitcher whose stats are trending back to before he took steroids. They have a couple of good young arms and a couple of good bats, and the NL East isn't exactly the gauntlet, but I'm not sure anyone in Philadelphia ought to be talking about which American League contender the Phillies best match up with in the World Series. 
 

Philadelphia is actually putting together a decent team.  I'm not saying it's a playoff team, but they probably have the 2nd best team in the NL East right now.

What prospect do you think Santana blocks?  If you're talking about Hoskins, he's starting in LF.

forsberg_us wrote:

artie_fufkin wrote:

APIAD wrote:

Arrieta 3 years 75 million from the phillies. Nice deal for early spring training. Would not be interested for that price. Lynn for 12million is a different story.

One wonders what the Phillies are doing. In December, they gave a $60m, 3-year contract to a 31-year-old first baseman at the expense of one of their top prospects. Then they give a $75m, 3-year contract to a 31-year-old pitcher whose stats are trending back to before he took steroids. They have a couple of good young arms and a couple of good bats, and the NL East isn't exactly the gauntlet, but I'm not sure anyone in Philadelphia ought to be talking about which American League contender the Phillies best match up with in the World Series. 
 

Philadelphia is actually putting together a decent team.  I'm not saying it's a playoff team, but they probably have the 2nd best team in the NL East right now.

What prospect do you think Santana blocks?  If you're talking about Hoskins, he's starting in LF.

I think if I were in charge, I'd probably put Hoskins at first and start Altherr and Williams at the corner OF spots, and spend the $20 million they spent on Santana on someone who isn't trending toward a DH position in a league that doesn't use it. But I probably like Altherr more than most of the experts.

 

Last edited by artie_fufkin (3/12/2018 12:57 pm)