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tkihshbt wrote:
I don't really care what the trend was, all I do know is that $94 million is more than $88 million, which was really the thing that started this mess.
OK, now I get your point. So in other words, they raised opening day payroll by 5,692,091 the year after they cut it by 11,096,040, the year after they raised it by 9,337,626, the year after they raised it by 1,395,452, the year after they cut it by 3,215,462, the year after they raised it by 8,878,500, the year after they cut it by 558,333, the year after they raised it by 9,125,791, the year after they cut it by 3,877,458, the year after they raised it by 14,638,333, and that's how we know that DeWitt spent new money to get and sign Holliday. Interesting analysis, TK. Keep me posted as to where that leads.
[Gee whiz, for a guy who claims to be impressed by sabremetrics you can be surprisingly uninterested in what statistics are, how we can manipulate them, and what inferences we can draw.]
Last edited by Max (2/23/2011 2:27 pm)
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AP, are we able to upload images?
I was just able to do a baby analysis in Excel that shows that 2010's opening day payroll is still below the predicted value on the trendline and I would like to show it. Suggestions?
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"I bet almost none of NFL or NBA fans know how much their team is under the salary cap."
I'm not sure I know anyone who understands the NBA's salary cap, AP. From what I've tried to discern, it's essentially "You have to be under *this* number, unless you have a player you really want to keep, then you can pay him as much as you want."
A long time ago, I tried to figure it out, but they lost me when teams began to trade for players with expiring contracts so they could cut them at the end of the season and use their salary cap number to sign someone they wanted.
Last edited by artie_fufkin (2/23/2011 3:11 pm)
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Max wrote:
AP, are we able to upload images?
I was just able to do a baby analysis in Excel that shows that 2010's opening day payroll is still below the predicted value on the trendline and I would like to show it. Suggestions?
The image thing works goofy. I am not sure you can post pics from your computer.
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[img]ˇÿˇ‡
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[img]3
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I tried to open the image in text edit and past it between the [img][/img] commands . . . without luck.
So I suppose the only way is some work around, like uploading to Flickr, and then posting the link?
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Max wrote:
I tried to open the image in text edit and past it between the [url][/url] commands . . . without luck.
So I suppose the only way is some work around, like uploading to Flickr, and then posting the link?
Yes there's no local file system on the forums for uploading pics so you have to reference it as a web URL from somewhere.
You could right click an email in a web article and see the "HTTP" address, and use that in between the tags I believe. Putting up your own pics though, you'll have to host them somewhere first.
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Let's try this, a cheap and simplistic Excel view of the trend using a linear model:
St. Louis Cardinals Opening Day Payroll Trend
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And here's what it looks like if we project a $110 M opening day payroll for 2011. In this case, 2010 is even further below the line (because 2011 pulls the line up, of course). Do we have a better projection yet for opening day payroll?
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Burwell hits another home run.
Cardinals should play hard and try to win. Good one.
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APRTW wrote:
Burwell hits another home run.
Cardinals should play hard and try to win. Good one.
"Here's something else that I'd love to see. Now that Adam Wainwright is gone, maybe the Cards should use this sad event to liberate themselves, ditch their patient Midwest sensibilities and behave like overly aggressive Yankees on a manic shopping binge and go all out for the 2011 season."
(errr) (errr) (errr) (errr) (errr)
[We need an emoticon that rolls its eyes. That would have been much closer to what I was trying to get at]
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forsberg_us wrote:
APRTW wrote:
Burwell hits another home run.
Cardinals should play hard and try to win. Good one."Here's something else that I'd love to see. Now that Adam Wainwright is gone, maybe the Cards should use this sad event to liberate themselves, ditch their patient Midwest sensibilities and behave like overly aggressive Yankees on a manic shopping binge and go all out for the 2011 season."
(errr) (errr) (errr) (errr) (errr)
[We need an emoticon that rolls its eyes. That would have been much closer to what I was trying to get at]
how about this?
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What does this do to the Pujols contract extension talks:
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I'm not sure, but I'm guessing Dewitt would be more than willing to pay Pujols $145M between now and 2020. (grin) (grin) (grin)
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They added "16:$19M, 17:$19M, 18:$19M, 19:$18M, 20:$16M, 21: mutual option up to $20M ($4M buyout)" to his contract. Kind of risky, IMO.
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This is similar to what the Rockies did earlier with Tulowitzki. Whenever you're talking guaranteed extensions, there's a HUGE risk, especially when the amount of money isn't drastically different from what the player might get on the open market.
It's good PR, however, and it allows there ownership to save face when Fielder walks at the end of the year.
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forsberg_us wrote:
I'm not sure, but I'm guessing Dewitt would be more than willing to pay Pujols $145M between now and 2020. (grin) (grin) (grin)
my first thought was that this pulls things back a little, more toward what dewitt might want to pay.
it sucks that dewitt didn't pounce on opportunities before. i thought that even the howard signing set a marvelous precent in that it was just 5 years. and if dewitt had offered pujols 5 years at something crazy, like $30 aav, with options to keep pujols a cardinal as long as he is playing well, that this would all be over and done with.
i suppose it is foolish to think there will be any resolution until probably next november or december when, regardless of Pujols's final decision, we will have been torn in pieces upon learning that some team like the Cubs are willing to go up to $300 million for 10 years.
Last edited by Max (4/22/2011 1:27 pm)
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Max wrote:
it sucks that dewitt didn't pounce on opportunities before. i thought that even the howard signing set a marvelous precent in that it was just 5 years. and if dewitt had offered pujols 5 years at something crazy, like $30 aav, with options to keep pujols a cardinal as long as he is playing well, that this would all be over and done with.
Max, I understand what you're saying, and in hindsight it looks like they made a mistake. But keep in mind they got burned doing the exact same thing for Carpenter. They signed him to an extension right after the team won the World Series even though he was signed through 2007 with an option for 2008. Carpenter blew out his elbow in the first game of the 2007 season and they looked like fools. By the time he finishes this season, Carpenter will have earned $64M for basically 3 years. I like Carpenter, but he isn't a $21M pitcher.
Although Pujols has rarely missed time due to injury, he has had issues with his elbow, back, hamstrings and feet. He had elbow surgery after both 2008 and 2009 and people were suggesting that it wasn't a question of "if" he would need TJ surgery, but "when" would he need it. I can understand why, at the time, and with multiple years left on his current deal, they were reluctant to sign a lengthy extension.
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Max wrote:
i suppose it is foolish to think there will be any resolution until probably next november or december when, regardless of Pujols's final decision, we will have been torn in pieces upon learning that some team like the Cubs are willing to go up to $300 million for 10 years.
If someone pays Pujols 10/$300M, I won't blame him for taking it, and it won't bother me if the Cardinals don't match.
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Giving Braun and Tulowitzki contracts like they are on the open market when they are under team control seems foolish. Just because the Cardinals would hav saved money by extending Pujols 3 years ago doesn mean that is always the right move. I believe more times then not it will burn you.
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Here's another interesting one from alomost two years ago "12/23/2010 8:21 am"
forsberg_us wrote:
alz wrote:
Man sometimes I'm a blithering idiot... I would not make a successful GM, but this time, I was right. After the Howard deal, I estimated 30 million a season is what it would take to keep AP around. Sad though, they could have signed him for a 10/250 before howard got that deal.
Actually Alz, Pujols told Chad last season that during the offseason (between 09-10) Pujols' agents proposed a 5/125 (the same deal Howard signed, but before Howard signed it) and the Cardinals didn't act because they thought the market was regressing. If that's the case, their effort to low-ball Pujols may have cost them anywhere from $55-85M in guaranteed money.
alz wrote:
Well I seriously hope you're right, because it seems all quiet on the cardinal front... I don't like "all quiet" when I have the best baseball player ever without a contract.
Fingers crossed.Chad's take was that "all quiet" was a good sign. They'd be scrambling to get a deal done if there wasn't already a framework for a deal and the media would know. This may be a situation where no news really is good news. At least for a little while.
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I dont think Pujols is worth 25 million either. At the time I think we were all blinded by the evil thought of losing Pujols. Now that he is gone, I understand the team is better off. If he was on this roster with that contract and the payroll wasnt raised by quite a bit this team would be in worst shape. If they are going to throw that kind of cash around they would be better off having Hamilton on the team. Not that they will even consider that idea. However if I was going to have a 25 million dollar player on the team there are alot of players I would pick before Pujols.
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APIAD wrote:
I dont think Pujols is worth 25 million either. At the time I think we were all blinded by the evil thought of losing Pujols. Now that he is gone, I understand the team is better off. If he was on this roster with that contract and the payroll wasnt raised by quite a bit this team would be in worst shape. If they are going to throw that kind of cash around they would be better off having Hamilton on the team. Not that they will even consider that idea. However if I was going to have a 25 million dollar player on the team there are alot of players I would pick before Pujols.
But maybe not back in 2010.
It really depends on how they worked the extension. If it paid for 2010-2014, it would have been a fabulous deal for us. Someone calculated Pujols worth being up around $32 million back in the 2010-2011 period.
As for what happened, it's a shame, but it is far from certain he would have collapsed as did had he stayed here. Read back through that old thread and I posted that I wouldn't be surprised if this turned out to be like Sampson cutting his hair.
Anyway, FWIW, I am having fun looking through the old posts here and on Yahoo. Did you know AP that you referred to a Burwell column as "Burwell hits another homerun".
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"It really depends on how they worked the extension. If it paid for 2010-2014, it would have been a fabulous deal for us."
Not really. If the Cardinals had done that extension, they would have spent $75M on first base over the last 3 years, and would owe another $50M. Instead, they've paid $32.5M for 2 years of Pujols and a year of Allen Craig. As we sit here today, the Cardinals are $42.5M ahead because they didn't make that deal.