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I can't see keeping the Wainwright thread within the Punto thread forever.
So, now that we must move forward with Wainwright, I think there are some possible silver linings here. For one, I have to admit that Kyle McClellan has really come on, and he has proven he can do just about whatever a reliever needs to be able to do. La Russa seems to be pushing for him. The fact that Garcia got a chance, and keep up aces, has really changed the strategic thinking for the team. And how much more beneficial would it be if we were to discover another near top of the rotation starter is already in our midst? If McClellan wins the job, and if he, like Garcia, is very effective, but for only about 5-7 innings per start, then the real need is to finally shore up the bullpen. I am not sure how it works, but they probably hope for 7 IP from Carp and Westbrook, and should not count on much more than 6 IP per start from Lohse, Garcia, and McClellan as #5. That would mean they would need to prepare for about 13 IP per five games from the bullpen. Sounds like a lot, but how many times have we seen the Cards suffer from an inadequate bullpen?
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It works like this.
1) Carp has to preform at least as good as he was last year.
2) Westbrook, Garcia, Loshe needs to have a sub 4 era and win at least 10 games
3) The 5th starter has to not kill the bullpen
4) Pujols, Holliday, Rasmus and Berkman have to put the team on their backs.
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I agree with the substance of what you're saying and that's one of the reasons it makes more sense to me to look outside the organization (Millwood, not Pedro) for someone who can be effective and eat innings.
If McClellan ends up the 5th starter, I'm not sure it's realistic to expect him to pitch more than the 168 innings they got from Garcia last season. That's 62 fewer innings than the team received from Wainwright. It's unrealistic to expect Carpenter to exceed the 235 innings he pitched last season, so that means Garcia, Lohse and Westbrook have to give 20 more innings than they (or the pitcher(s) in their spot in the rotation) did last season. A lot of that probably falls on Lohse because I can't imagine that he, Hawksworth, Suppan and whoever else pitched in the #5 spot last season pitched many innings.
Also, if McClellan moves to the rotation, it opens a spot in the bullpen. An early guess would end up with something like
RH- Franklin, Motte, Boggs, Batista, Salas
LH- Miller, Tallet
If that's the case, either Motte or Boggs needs to step into that 8th inning role in a big way.
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I still have my eye on Snell. Maybe I am being unrealistic but I think he can help. The main issue will be keeping the 4 starter they have left healthy. If one of them goes down for a extended period of time it will be over.
I look at this season as a team that is going to have to get by like the Brewers have for several seasons. Hope the offense picks them up and there average staff can hold it together.
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My thought was that as with Garcia last year, the only option with much upside is McClellan.
I'm not sure what an innings eater, with a 5+ ERA is, other than a white flag and a day off for Molina.
It would be nice if we could sell one of the Snell/Batista types on the idea of the bullpen, telling them they are first in line for a spot in the rotation if further troubles hit, and thus have a long reliever with lots of experience.
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I always forget about Snell.
I still suspect McClellan gets first shot at it. If for no other reason that TLR and Duncan have been telling us for 3 years that McClellan could be a starter.
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forsberg_us wrote:
If that's the case, either Motte or Boggs needs to step into that 8th inning role in a big way.
Well, I'm not sure if Mags is listening, but I am willing to admit that I was too hard on Motte, and I think he already stepped up to that role last season, and just might be ready to take over the closer's role. He had a streak of scoreless innings last season that was pretty impressive, like maybe 30+ IP without allowing an ER.
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Max wrote:
forsberg_us wrote:
If that's the case, either Motte or Boggs needs to step into that 8th inning role in a big way.
Well, I'm not sure if Mags is listening, but I am willing to admit that I was too hard on Motte, and I think he already stepped up to that role last season, and just might be ready to take over the closer's role. He had a streak of scoreless innings last season that was pretty impressive, like maybe 30+ IP without allowing an ER.
I am worried that Motte's innings were picked and choosen. I think TLR normally put him in a position to do good things. I still dont have much faith in Motte.
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Max wrote:
forsberg_us wrote:
If that's the case, either Motte or Boggs needs to step into that 8th inning role in a big way.
Well, I'm not sure if Mags is listening, but I am willing to admit that I was too hard on Motte, and I think he already stepped up to that role last season, and just might be ready to take over the closer's role. He had a streak of scoreless innings last season that was pretty impressive, like maybe 30+ IP without allowing an ER.
Actually, I think it was 30 straight batters (an impressive feat in and of itself).
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that's right. it was a non-consecutive 'perfect game', retiring 30 some odd straight batters.
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"I always forget about Snell."
That's because he's forgettable.
If there's ever such a thing as The Tomb of the Unknown Baseball Player, Ian Snell will be in it.